A new model of ragweed pollen release based on the analysis of meteorological conditions

Abstract. In order to propose a new deterministic ragweed pollen emission scheme, the meteorological conditions conducive to common ragweed pollen emission are studied over Europe between 2005 and 2011. Correlations are calculated between daily modelled meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, humidity, precipitations rates, surface fluxes) and surface concentrations at nine stations in Hungary, Croatia and France. We found that the 2 m temperature is the most correlated parameter, followed by convective velocity and incoming shortwave radiation. On the other hand, the precipitation rate and the 2 m specific humidity act as limiting factors. A new emission scheme is designed. Compared to two existing schemes, we show that it is able to better estimate the daily release of ragweed pollen in 73% of modelled cases.