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https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-17443-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-17443-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
16 Jul 2012
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal ACP but the revision was not accepted.
A new El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasting tool based on Southern Oscillation Index
Abstract. An exploration of the temporal evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during January 1876–November 2011 by means of a new time domain called natural time reveals that the major ENSO events provide precursory signals that are maximized in a time window of almost two years. This finding improves the accuracy of the short-term prediction models of the ENSO extreme events, preventing thus from its disastrous impacts in advance.
How to cite. Varotsos, C. A. and Tzanis, C.: A new El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasting tool based on Southern Oscillation Index, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 17443–17463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-17443-2012, 2012.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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RC C5247: 'Referee comment on 'A new forecasting tool of the El Nino Southern Oscillation'', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Aug 2012
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RC C5781: 'acp-2012-53 - Manuscript published for Discussion', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Aug 2012
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AC C6830: 'Authors responses to referee comments', Costas Varotsos, 12 Sep 2012
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
-
RC C5247: 'Referee comment on 'A new forecasting tool of the El Nino Southern Oscillation'', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Aug 2012
-
RC C5781: 'acp-2012-53 - Manuscript published for Discussion', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Aug 2012
-
AC C6830: 'Authors responses to referee comments', Costas Varotsos, 12 Sep 2012
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Cited
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Change ΔS of the entropy in natural time under time reversal: Complexity measures upon change of scale N. Sarlis et al. 10.1209/0295-5075/109/18002
- An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series S. Christopoulos & N. Sarlis 10.1155/2017/6853892
- Fracture analysis of typical construction materials in natural time A. Loukidis et al. 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123831
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C. A. Varotsos
Climate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, University Campus Bldg. Phys. V, Athens 15784, Greece
C. Tzanis
Climate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, University Campus Bldg. Phys. V, Athens 15784, Greece