Simulation of solar-cycle response in tropical total column ozone using SORCE irradiance

Abstract. Total column ozone (X_O3) abundance in Earth's atmosphere is intimately related to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Understanding the solar-cycle modulations of X_O3 helps distinguish anthropogenic perturbations from natural variability during the ozone recovery. Here, the solar-cycle signal of tropical X_O3 in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) model has been examined using solar spectral irradiance (SSI) estimated from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) solar model and that from recent satellite measurements observed by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE). Four experiments have been conducted with NRL/SORCE SSI and climatological/realistic sea surface temperatures and ice, and all other variability is fixed. In the tropical region 24° S–24° N, using the SORCE SSI as a model input leads to a solar-cycle response of ~5.4 DU/100F_10.7, which is ~2 times of that obtained using NRL SSI. The results are slightly different in the presence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when realistic SST/ice is used, but these differences are within the regression uncertainty of ~0.6 DU/100F_10.7. The solar-cycle responses simulated using SORCE SSI agree with those obtained from the merged TOMS/SBUV satellite observations. Using NRL SSI as a model input results in solar-cycle responses that are closer to the ground-based observations, although the accuracy of the latter is limited by the number of stations in the tropics. In all model experiments, the tropical distribution of the solar-cycle response is constant to within ~0.5 DU/100F_10.7, which is of the same order as the regression uncertainty. The spatial structures of the regression uncertainty are shown to be correlated with ENSO in the Pacific region. The solar-cycle response obtained using SORCE SSI implies a maximum change in lower stratospheric temperature of ~0.8 K. This may lead to significant impacts on the model solar-cycle responses in atmospheric circulation, precipitation and other hydrological variables that are important for the climate change.