Trajectory analysis on the origin of air mass and moisture associated with Atmospheric Rivers over the west coast of the United States

Abstract. The origins and pathways of air masses leading to heavy rainfall over the west coast of the United States are examined by computing the back-trajectories in a Lagrangian quasi-isentropic trajectory model. Extreme precipitation over the west coast of the United States often coincides with transport in a deep and narrow corridor of concentrated water vapor band from the ocean, commonly referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). They also occur in conjunction with moisture plumes emanating from the tropics, or along the mid-latitude storm track. However, the actual moisture sources and the dynamic and thermodynamic processes of the moisture transport, are still unclear. Trajectories are found to be insensitive to the reanalysis data set used; we examined NCEP, GMAO MERRA, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Reconstructed water vapor mixing ratios along trajectories are in generally good agreement among the reanalysis datasets in most of the subtropics and extratropics, indicating that the large-scale circulation is a primary control for moisture transport over those regions. Clustering and pdf (probability density function) analyses illustrate that trajectories over the west coast of United States have different origins. One group of trajectories (cluster 1) originates in the warm part of extratropical cyclones in the low level. The other group of trajectories (cluster 2) originates in the cold and dry regions in the mid-level (pressures less than 600 hPa) over northeastern Asia, then cross the Pacific Ocean. This study demonstrates that the quasi-isentropic Lagrangian trajectory model and clustering analysis (that have been typically used to analyze trajectories in the upper troposphere and higher altitudes) can be used to examine sources of air masses and moisture, and also associated transport processes in the lower troposphere.