Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 2: Steady-state changes in ozone air quality and impacts on human mortality

Abstract. Large-scale changes in ozone precursor emissions affect ozone directly in the short term, and also affect methane, which in turn causes long-term changes in ozone that affect surface ozone air quality. Here we assess the effects of changes in ozone precursor emissions on the long-term change in surface ozone via methane, as a function of the emission region, by modeling 10% reductions in anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from each of nine world regions. Reductions in NO_x emissions from all world regions increase methane and long-term surface ozone. While this long-term increase is small compared to the intra-regional short-term ozone decrease, it is comparable to or larger than the short-term inter-continental ozone decrease for some source-receptor pairs. The increase in methane and long-term surface ozone per ton of NO_x reduced is greatest in tropical and Southern Hemisphere regions, exceeding that from temperate Northern Hemisphere regions by roughly a factor of ten. We also assess changes in premature ozone-related human mortality associated with regional precursor reductions and long-range transport, showing that for 10% regional NO_x reductions, the strongest inter-regional influence is for emissions from Europe affecting mortalities in Africa. Reductions of NO_x in North America, Europe, the Former Soviet Union, and Australia are shown to reduce more mortalities outside of the source regions than within. Among world regions, NO_x reductions in India cause the greatest number of avoided mortalities per ton, mainly in India itself. Finally, by increasing global methane, NO_x reductions in one hemisphere tend to cause long-term increases in ozone concentration and mortalities in the opposite hemisphere. Reducing emissions of methane, and to a lesser extent carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds, alongside NO_x reductions would avoid this disbenefit.