Downslope föhn winds over the Antarctic Peninsula and their effect on the Larsen ice shelves

Abstract. Mesoscale model simulations are presented of a westerly föhn event over the Antarctic Peninsula mountain ridge and onto the Larsen C ice shelf, just south of the recently collapsed Larsen B ice shelf. Aircraft observations showed the presence of föhn jets descending near the ice shelf surface with maximum wind speeds at 250–350 m in height. Surface flux measurements suggested that melting was occurring. Simulated profiles of wind speed, temperature and wind direction were very similar to the observations. However, the good match only occurred at a model time corresponding to ~9 h before the aircraft observations were made since the model föhn jets died down after this. This was despite the fact that the model was nudged towards analysis for heights greater than ~1.15 km above the surface.

Timing issues aside, the otherwise good comparison between the model and observations gave confidence that the model flow structure was similar to that in reality. Details of the model jet structure are explored and discussed and are found to have ramifications for the placement of automatic weather station (AWS) stations on the ice shelf in order to detect föhn flow. Cross sections of the flow are also examined and were found to compare well to the aircraft measurements. Gravity wave breaking above the mountain crest likely created a~situation similar to hydraulic flow and allowed föhn flow and ice shelf surface warming to occur despite strong upwind blocking, which in previous studies of this region has generally not been considered. Our results therefore suggest that reduced upwind blocking, due to wind speed increases or stability decreases, might not result in an increased likelihood of föhn events over the Antarctic Peninsula, as previously suggested.

The surface energy budget of the model during the melting periods showed that the net downwelling short-wave surface flux was the largest contributor to the melting energy, indicating that the cloud clearing effect of föhn events is likely to be the most important factor for increased melting relative to non-föhn days. The results also indicate that the warmth of the föhn jets through sensible heat flux ("SH") may not be critical in causing melting beyond boundary layer stabilisation effects (which may help to prevent cloud cover and suppress loss of heat by convection) and are actually cancelled by latent heat flux ("LH") effects (snow ablation). It was found that ground heat flux ("GRD") was likely to be an important factor when considering the changing surface energy budget for the southern regions of the ice shelf as the climate warms.