Estimating regional greenhouse gas fluxes: an uncertainty analysis of planetary boundary layer techniques and bottom-up inventories

Abstract. Quantification of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes is essential for establishing mitigation strategies and evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we used multiple top-down approaches and multiple trace gas observations at a tall tower to estimate regional-scale GHG fluxes and evaluate the GHG fluxes derived from bottom-up approaches. We first applied the eddy covariance, equilibrium, inverse modeling (CarbonTracker), and flux aggregation methods using 3 years of carbon dioxide (CO₂) measurements on a 244 m tall tower in the upper Midwest, USA. We then applied the equilibrium method for estimating CH₄ and N₂O fluxes with 1-month high-frequency CH₄ and N₂O gradient measurements on the tall tower and 1-year concentration measurements on a nearby tall tower, and evaluated the uncertainties of this application. The results indicate that (1) the flux aggregation, eddy covariance, the equilibrium method, and the CarbonTracker product all gave similar seasonal patterns of the regional CO₂ flux (10⁵−10⁶ km², but that the equilibrium method underestimated the July CO₂ flux by 52–69%. (2) The annual budget varied among these methods from −54 to −131 g C–CO₂ m⁻² yr⁻¹, indicating a large uncertainty in the annual CO₂ flux estimation. (3) The regional CH₄ and N₂O emissions according to a top-down method were at least 6 and 2 times higher than the emissions from a bottom-up inventory (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research), respectively. (4) The global warming potentials of the CH₄ and N₂O emissions were equal in magnitude to the cooling benefit of the regional CO₂ uptake. The regional GHG budget, including both biological and anthropogenic origins, is estimated at 7 ± 160 g CO₂ equivalent m⁻² yr⁻¹.