Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-719
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-719

  02 Sep 2021

02 Sep 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Long Range Prediction and the Stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife1,2, Mark P. Baldwin3, Amy H. Butler4, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez5, Daniella I. V. Domeisen6,7, Chaim I. Garfinkel8, Steven C. Hardiman1, Peter Haynes9, Alexey Yu Karpechko10, Eun-Pa Lim11, Shunsuke Noguchi12,13, Judith Perlwitz14, Lorenzo Polvani15,16, Jadwiga H. Richter17, John Scinocca18, Michael Sigmond18, Theodore G. Shepherd5, Seok-Woo Son19, and David W. J. Thompson20 Adam A. Scaife et al.
  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, U.K.
  • 2College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, U.K.
  • 3Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, U.K.
  • 4NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
  • 5Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, U.K.
  • 6ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 7University of Lausanne, Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Lausanne, Switzerland
  • 8Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 9Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 10Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
  • 11Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • 12Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
  • 13Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 14NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
  • 15Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, U.S.A.
  • 16Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York City, NY, U.S.A.
  • 17Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
  • 18Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
  • 19School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • 20Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.

Abstract. Over recent years there have been parallel advances in the development of stratosphere resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing new and improved capability in long range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal and decadal climate predictions. We end with an outlook towards the future of climate forecasts and identify areas for improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Adam A. Scaife et al.

Status: open (until 14 Oct 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on acp-2021-719', Paul PUKITE, 16 Sep 2021 reply

Adam A. Scaife et al.

Adam A. Scaife et al.

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Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate and here we review its role in long range predictions from weeks to decades ahead.
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