Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-852
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-852
10 Jan 2023
 | 10 Jan 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ACP and is expected to appear here in due course.

Opinion: How Nuclear Winter has Saved the World, So Far

Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen

Abstract. The direct effects of nuclear war would be horrific, with blast, fires, and radiation killing and injuring many people. But in 1983, United States and Soviet Union scientists showed that a nuclear war could also produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies for people far removed from the conflict. Smoke from fires ignited by nuclear weapons exploded on cities and industrial targets would block out sunlight, causing dark, cold, and dry surface conditions, producing a nuclear winter, with surface temperatures below freezing even in summer for years. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s and to produce the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2017, which led to the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize. Because awareness of nuclear winter is now widespread, nuclear nations have so far not used nuclear weapons. But the mere existence of nuclear weapons means that they can be used, by unstable leaders or because of an accident, computer malfunction, sensor malfunction, human error, or terrorism. Because they cannot be used without the danger of escalation and a global humanitarian catastrophe, and because of recent threats to use them by Russia, it is even more urgent for scientists to broadly communicate their results and work for the elimination of nuclear weapons.

Alan Robock et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Alexander Kmentt, 30 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Feb 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Alan Robock, 08 Mar 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Alexander Kmentt, 30 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Feb 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-852', Alan Robock, 08 Mar 2023

Alan Robock et al.

Alan Robock et al.

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Executive editor
The term "nuclear winter" was commonly used in the 1980s and represented a scenario where a nuclear war could profoundly alter the earth's climate through injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which could be considered a highly extreme example of human activity altering the earth system. Paul Crutzen, in his Nobel Prize speech, said that this concept is politically important as it "magnifies and highlights the dangers of a nuclear war and convinces me that in the long run mankind can only escape such horrific consequences if nuclear weapons are totally abolished by international agreement". While nuclear war is hopefully something that we will never experience, it is highly interesting to return to this topic four decades later, after the major advancements in the science of aerosol-climate interactions that have occurred in the meantime (partly motivated by an exploration of geoengineering concepts), and improvements in our abilities to model the agricultural and economic impacts of climate change. The conclusions of the paper by Robock et al. offer a sobering reminder of the manifold dangers of this type of warfare to the earth system and society.
Short summary
A nuclear war could produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies. Smoke from city fires ignited by nuclear weapons would block out sunlight, causing dark, cold, and dry surface conditions for years. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, to produce the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2017, which led to the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, and so far to prevent additional use of nuclear weapons. They must be eliminated.
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