The evolution of deep convective systems and their associated cirrus outflows

Abstract. Tropical deep convective clouds, particularly their large cirrus outflows, play an important role in modulating the energy balance of the Earth’s atmosphere. Whilst the cores of these deep convective clouds have a significant shortwave (SW) cooling effect, they dissipate quickly. Conversely, the thin cirrus that flow from these cores can persist for days after the core has dissipated, reaching hundreds of kilometers in extent. These thin cirrus have a potential for large warming in the tropics. Understanding the evolution of these clouds and how they change in response to anthropogenic emissions is therefore important to understand past and future climate change.

This work uses a novel approach to investigate the evolution of tropical convective clouds by introducing the concept of ‘Time Since Convection’ (TSC). This is used to build a composite picture of the lifecycle of deep convection, from anvil cirrus to thin detrained cirrus. Cloud properties are a strong function of time since convection, showing decreases in the optical thickness, cloud top height, and cloud fraction over time. After an initial dissipation of the convective core, changes in thin cirrus cloud amount were seen beyond 200 hours from convection.

Finally, in the initial stages of convection there was a large net negative cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, once the convective core had dissipated after 6–12 hours, the sign of the CRE flipped, and there was a sustained net warming CRE beyond 120 hours from the convective event. Changes are present in the cloud properties long after the main convective activities have dissipated, signalling the need to continue further analysis at longer time scales than previously studied.