Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-730
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-730
 
10 Nov 2022
10 Nov 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Montreal Protocol's impact on the ozone layer and climate

Tatiana Egorova1, Jan Sedlacek1, Timofei Sukhodolov1,2, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel1,3, Franziska Zilker3, and Eugene Rozanov1,3 Tatiana Egorova et al.
  • 1Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
  • 2Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
  • 3Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract. It is now recognized and confirmed that the ozone layer shields the biosphere from dangerous solar UV radiation and is also important for the global atmosphere and climate. The observed massive ozone depletion forced the introduction of limitations on the production of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODS) by the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments (MPA). Further research was aimed at analyzing the role played by the Montreal Protocol to increase public awareness of its necessity. In this study, we evaluate the benefits of the Montreal Protocol on climate and ozone evolution using the Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4.0 which includes dynamic ocean, sea ice, interactive ozone, and stratospheric aerosol modules. Here, we analyze the results of the numerical experiments performed with and without limitations on the ozone-depleting substances emissions. In the experiments, we have used CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for future forcing behavior. We confirm previous results relative to catastrophic ozone layer depletion in the case without MPA limitations. The climate effects of MPA consist of additional global mean warming by up to 2.5 K in 2100 caused by the direct radiative effect of the hODS. We also obtained dramatic changes in several essential climate variables such as regional surface air temperature, sea-ice cover, and precipitation fields. Our research updates and complements previous modeling studies on the quantification of MPA benefits for the terrestrial atmosphere and climate.

Tatiana Egorova et al.

Status: open (until 23 Dec 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-730', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Dec 2022 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-730', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Dec 2022 reply

Tatiana Egorova et al.

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Montreal Protocol's impact on the ozone layer and climate Egorova, Tatiana; Sedlacek, Jan; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Karagodin-Doyennel, Arseniy; Zilker, Franziska; Rozanov, Eugene https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7234665

Tatiana Egorova et al.

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Short summary
This paper describes the climate and atmosphere benefits of the Montreal Protocol, simulated with the state-of-the-art Earth system model SOCOLv4.0. We have added to and confirmed the previous studies by showing that without the Montreal Protocol by the end of the 21st century there would be a dramatic reduction of the ozone layer as well as substantial perturbation of the essential climate variables in the troposphere caused by the warming from increasing ozone-depleting substances.
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