03 Nov 2022
03 Nov 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Very Long Period Oscillations in the Atmosphere (0–110 km), Part 2: Latitude/longitude comparisons and trends

Dirk Offermann1, Christoph Kalicinsky1, Ralf Koppmann1, and Johannes Wintel1,2 Dirk Offermann et al.
  • 1Institut für Atmosphären - und Umweltforschung, Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany
  • 2Elementar Analysensysteme GmbH, Langenselbold, Germany

Abstract. Atmospheric simulations by computer models exhibit oscillations with multi-annual, decadal, and even centennial periods. These oscillations are especially seen in the temperature. They extend from the ground up to the lower thermosphere. Recent analyses have shown that they exist even if the model boundaries are kept constant with respect to influences of the sun, ocean, and greenhouse gases. Therefore, these parameters appear not responsible for the excitation of these oscillations, However, influences of land surface/vegetation changes had not been enrirely excluded. This is studied in the present analysis. It turns out that such changes are also not candidates for such stimulation. Rather, it appears that the long- period oscillations are excited (internally) in the atmosphere itself.

Long-term trends of atmospheric parameters as the temperature are important for the understanding of the climate change. Their study is mostly based on data sets that are one to a few decades long. The trend values are generally small, and so are the amplitudes of the long-period oscillations. It can therefore be difficult to disentangle these structures, especially if the interval of trend analysis is comparable to the period of the oscillations. If the oscillations are self-excited, there may be a non- anthropogenic contribution to the climate change which is difficult to determine. Long-term changes of the Cold-Point-Tropopause are analyzed here as an example.

Dirk Offermann et al.

Status: open (until 27 Dec 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-677', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Nov 2022 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Dirk Offermann, 21 Nov 2022 reply
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Nov 2022 reply

Dirk Offermann et al.

Dirk Offermann et al.


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Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km, and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint to a global oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present day climate trends and it is, therefore, difficult to disentangle them.