Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-639
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-639
 
04 Oct 2022
04 Oct 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Differences between recent emission inventories strongly affect anthropogenic aerosol evolution from 1990 to 2019

Marianne Tronstad Lund1, Gunnar Myhre1, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie1, Bjørn Hallvard Samset1, and Zbigniew Klimont2 Marianne Tronstad Lund et al.
  • 1CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract. This study focuses on implications of differences between recent global emissions inventories for simulated trends in anthropogenic aerosol abundances and radiative forcing (RF) over the 1990–2019 period. We use the ECLIPSE version 6 (ECLv6) and Community Emission Data System year 2021 release (CEDS21) as input to the chemical transport model OsloCTM3 and compare the resulting aerosol evolution to corresponding results derived with the first CEDS release, as well as to observed trends in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Using CEDS21 and ECLv6 results in 3 % and 6 % lower global mean AOD compared to CEDS in 2014, primarily driven by differences over China and India, where the area average AOD is up to 30 % lower. These differences are considerably larger than the satellite-derived interannual variability in AOD. A negative linear trend (over 2005–2017) in global AOD following changes in anthropogenic emissions is found with all three inventories but is markedly stronger with CEDS21 and ECLv6. Furthermore, we confirm that the model better captures the sign and strength of the observed AOD trend over China with CEDS21 and ECLv6 compared to using CEDS. We estimate a net, global mean aerosol-induced RF in 2014 relative to 1990 of 0.08 W m-2 for CEDS21, and 0.12 W m-2 for ECLv6, compared to 0.03 W m-2 with CEDS. Using CEDS21, we also estimate the RF in 2019 relative to 1990 to be 0.10 W m-2, reflecting the continuing decreasing trend in aerosol loads post 2014. Our results facilitate more rigorous comparison between existing and upcoming studies of climate and health effects of aerosols using different emission inventories.

Marianne Tronstad Lund et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-639', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Reviewer Comment on acp-2022-639', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Nov 2022

Marianne Tronstad Lund et al.

Marianne Tronstad Lund et al.

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Short summary
Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have notable influence on simulated abundances of anthropogenic aerosol, and their radiative forcing (RF), over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affect estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
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