Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-550
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-550
 
26 Sep 2022
26 Sep 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted by machine learning with multisource data

Huimin Li1, Yang Yang1, Jianbing Jin1, Hailong Wang2, Ke Li1, Pinya Wang1, and Hong Liao1 Huimin Li et al.
  • 1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
  • 2Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA

Abstract. Ozone (O3) is a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere formed by photochemical reactions that endangers human health and ecosystems. O3 has aggravated in Asia in recent decades and will vary in the future. In this study, to quantify the impacts of future climate change on O3 pollution, near-surface O3 concentrations over Asia in 2020–2100 are projected using a machine learning (ML) method along with multisource data. The ML model is trained with combined O3 data from a global atmospheric chemical transport model and real-time observations. The ML model is then used to estimate future O3 with meteorological fields from multi-model simulations under various climate scenarios. The near-surface O3 concentrations are projected to increase by 5–20 % over South China, Southeast Asia, and South India and less than 10 % over North China and Gangetic Plains under the high forcing scenarios in the last decade of 21st century, compared to the first decade of 2020–2100. The O3 increases are primarily owing to the favorable meteorological conditions for O3 photochemical formation in most Asian regions. We also find that the summertime O3 pollution over eastern China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future. Our results demonstrate the important role of climate change penalty on Asian O3 in the future, which provides implications for environmental and climate strategies of adaptation and mitigation.

Huimin Li et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-550', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Oct 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-550', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Oct 2022

Huimin Li et al.

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Short summary
Future climate change will aggravate ozone pollution in Asia, especially in high forcing scenarios. Ozone pollution in China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future. The emphasis of this work is to quantify the impacts of future climate change on O3 pollution in Asia, which is of great significance for the future O3 pollution mitigation strategies.
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