Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-526
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-526
 
25 Oct 2022
25 Oct 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Modulation of daily PM2.5 concentrations over China in winter by large-scale circulation and climate change

Zixuan Jia1, Carlos Ordóñez2, Ruth M. Doherty1, Oliver Wild3, Steven T. Turnock4,5, and Fiona M. O’Connor4 Zixuan Jia et al.
  • 1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
  • 2Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
  • 3Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
  • 4Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
  • 5University of Leeds Met Office Strategic Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

Abstract. We use the United Kingdom Earth System Model, UKESM1, to investigate the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) and their sensitivity to emissions over major populated regions of China over the period 1999–2019. We focus on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), where weak flow of cold, dry air from the north and weak inflow of maritime air are particularly conducive to air pollution. These provide favourable conditions for the accumulation of local pollution but limit the transport of air pollutants into the region from the north. Based on the dominant large-scale circulation, we construct a new index using the north-south pressure gradient and apply it to characterize PM2.5 concentrations over the region. We show that this index can effectively distinguish different levels of pollution over YRD and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change that is likely to partially offset the effect of emission control measures in the near-term future. To benefit from future emission reductions, more stringent emission controls are required to offset the effects of climate change.

Zixuan Jia et al.

Status: open (until 06 Dec 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-526', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Nov 2022 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-526', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Nov 2022 reply

Zixuan Jia et al.

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Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
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