Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-370
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-370
 
19 Jul 2022
19 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Seyed Vahid Mousavi1, Khalil Karami2, Simone Tilmes3, Helene Muri4, Lili Xia5, and Abolfazl Rezaei1,6 Seyed Vahid Mousavi et al.
  • 1Center for Research in Climate Change and Global Warming, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
  • 2Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Germany
  • 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 4Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
  • 5Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, USA
  • 6Departmant of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, Zanjan, Iran

Abstract. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the dustiest region, in the world and understanding the projected changes in the dust concentrations in the region is crucially important. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering aims to reduce global warming, by increasing the reflection of a small amount of the incoming solar radiation to space, and hence reducing the global surface temperatures. Using the output from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project (GLENS) project, we show a reduction in the dust concentration in the MENA region under both global warming (RCP8.5) and GLENS-SAI scenarios compared to the present-day climate. This reduction over the MENA region is stronger under the SAI scenario, while for dry season (e.g., summer with the strongest dust events), more reduction has been projected for the global warming scenario. The maximum reduction of the dust concentrations in the MENA region (under both the global warming and SAI) is due to the weakening of the dust hotspots emissions from the sources of the Middle East. Further analysis of the differences in the surface temperature, soil water, precipitation, leaf area index, and near surface wind speed provides some insights into the underlying physical mechanisms that determine the changes in the future dust concentrations in the MENA region. We also conduct wavelet analysis using the time series of the monthly, seasonal, and annual climate changes under the SAI simulation to identify the dust relationship with the considered variables. Our findings show that a stronger reduction of the dust concentration in the MENA region under SAI relative to the RCP8.5 scenario is a complex interplay with temperature reduction, precipitation, soil water and leaf area index enhancement, as well as weakening of near surface winds compared to the present-day climate.

Seyed Vahid Mousavi et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-370', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Referee Comment on acp-2022-370', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Sep 2022

Seyed Vahid Mousavi et al.

Data sets

the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDECA) Alex de Sherbinin, Deborah Balk, Karina Yager, Malanding Jaiteh, Francesca Pozzi, Chandra Giri, Antroinette Wannebo https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/

Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project - GLENS Simone Tilmes, Jadwiga H. Richter, Michael Mills, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/GLENS/

Seyed Vahid Mousavi et al.

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Short summary
Understanding atmospheric dust changes in the MENA region under future climate scenarios is essential. By injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, the Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) geoengineering reflects some of the incoming sunlight back to space. This study projects the changes in dust in the MENA region under the SAI and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the current climate (CTL) and shows the dust would be reduced under both the RCP8.5 and SAI scenarios compared to the CTL.
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