Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-316
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-316
 
02 Jun 2022
02 Jun 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming

Elisa T. Sena1, Ilan Koren2, Orit Altaratz2, and Alexander B. Kostinski3 Elisa T. Sena et al.
  • 1Multidisciplinary Department, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
  • 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Sciences, Rehovot, Israel
  • 3Department of Physics, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA

Abstract. Record-breaking statistics are combined here with geographic mode of exploration to construct a new object: a record-breaking map. Such maps are shown here to reveal surprisingly robust statistical results and spatial content. Specifically, we examine a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) values and show that high SST records have been broken far more frequently than the expected rate for a trend-free random variable (TFRV) over the vast majority of oceans (83 % of the grid cells). This, together with the asymmetry between high and low records and their deviation from a TRFV, indicate SST warming over most oceans, obtained by using a general and simple-to-use method. The spatial patterns of this warming are coherent and reveal islands of cooling, such as the "cold blob" in the North Atlantic and a surprising elliptical area in the Southern Ocean, near the Ross sea gyre, not previously reported.

Elisa T. Sena et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-316', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-316', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2022

Elisa T. Sena et al.

Elisa T. Sena et al.

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Short summary
We used record-breaking statistics together with spatial information to create record-breaking SST maps. The maps reveal warming patterns in the overwhelming majority of the ocean, and coherent islands of cooling, where low records occur more frequently than high ones. Some of these cooling spots are well-known, however, a surprising elliptical area in the Southern Ocean is observed as well. Similar analysis can be performed on other key climatological variables to explore their trend patterns.
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