Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-240
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-240
 
08 Apr 2022
08 Apr 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment

Megan Jeramaz Lickley1, John S. Daniel2, Eric L. Fleming3,4, Stefan Reimann5, and Susan Solomon1 Megan Jeramaz Lickley et al.
  • 1Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
  • 2NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA
  • 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 4Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
  • 5Laboratory for Air Pollution/Environmental Technology, Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technologies, Duebendorf, Switzerland

Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These ‘banks’ within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to evaluate ongoing compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify CFC-11, 12 and 113 banks and their emissions. We extend this model to the suite of the major banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon-1211, and halon-1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, 12 and 113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are very likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that production has been very likely higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and 12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential. Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone hole recovery if left unrecovered.

Megan Jeramaz Lickley et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-240', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Apr 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-240', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 May 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on acp-2022-240', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 May 2022

Megan Jeramaz Lickley et al.

Megan Jeramaz Lickley et al.

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Short summary
Halocarbons contained in equipment continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These ‘banks’ must be carefully accounted for in evaluating compliance with the Montreal Protocol. We extend a Bayesian model to the suite of regulated chemicals subject to banking. We find banks are substantially larger than previous estimates, and we identify banks by chemical and equipment type whose future emissions will contribute to global warming and delay ozone hole recovery if left unrecovered.
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