Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-972
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-972
 
12 Jan 2022
12 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ACP and is expected to appear here in due course.

The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino for entry stratospheric water vapour in observations and coupled chemistry-ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models

Shlomi Ziskin Ziv1,2, Chaim I. Garfinkel3, Sean Davis4, and Antara Banerjee4,5 Shlomi Ziskin Ziv et al.
  • 1Department of Physics, Ariel University, Ariel, Israel
  • 2Eastern R&D center, Ariel, Israel
  • 3The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 4NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 5Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Abstract. The relative importance of two processes that help control the concentrations of stratospheric water vapor, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are evaluated in observations and in comprehensive coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry models. The possibility of nonlinear interactions between these two is evaluated both using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and three additional advanced machine learning techniques. The QBO is found to be more important than ENSO, however nonlinear interactions are non-negligible, and even when ENSO, the QBO, and potential nonlinearities are included the fraction of entry water vapor variability explained is still substantially less than what is accounted for by cold point temperatures. While the advanced machine learning techniques perform better than an MLR in which nonlinearities are suppressed, adding nonlinear predictors to the MLR mostly closes the gap in performance with the advanced machine learning techniques. Comprehensive models suffer from too weak a connection between entry water and the QBO, however a notable improvement is found relative to previous generations of comprehensive models. Models with a stronger QBO in the lower stratosphere systematically simulate a more realistic connection with entry water.

Shlomi Ziskin Ziv et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Feb 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2021-972', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Mar 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Feb 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2021-972', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Mar 2022

Shlomi Ziskin Ziv et al.

Shlomi Ziskin Ziv et al.

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Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry, however the factors governing its variability on inter-annual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this inter-annual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations, and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
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