Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-826
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-826
 
11 Oct 2021
11 Oct 2021
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ACP and is expected to appear here in due course.

Future projections of daily hazy and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

Shipra Jain1, Ruth M. Doherty1, David Sexton2, Steven Turnock2,3, Chaofan Li4, Zixuan Jia1, Zongbo Shi5, and Lin Pei6 Shipra Jain et al.
  • 1School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 3University of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
  • 4Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
  • 5School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
  • 6Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Abstract. We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a meteorology-based Haze Weather Index (HWI), which was developed to examine the haze conducive weather conditions for Beijing. We find that the HWI can be used as an indicator of winter haze across the entire NCP due to the extended spatial coherence of the local meteorological conditions. The PPE generated using the UK Met Office HadGEM-GC3 model shows that under a high-emission (RCP8.5) scenario, the frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. However, a change of opposite sign with lower magnitude in the frequencies, though less likely, is also possible. In future, the total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ~3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP. We also examined the changes in the interannual variability of the frequency of hazy and clear days and find no marked changes in the variability for future periods. The future frequencies of winter hazy and clear days in the PPE are largely driven by changes in zonal-mean mid-tropospheric winds and the vertical temperature gradient over the NCP. We do not find any discernible influence of model physical parameterizations on the future projections of trends in the frequency of hazy or clear days. We find a clear impact of anthropogenic climate change on future trends for both hazy and clear days, however, it is only discernible for specific periods due to the large underlying internal variability in the frequencies of hazy and clear days.

Shipra Jain et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2021-826', William Collins, 02 Nov 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2021-826', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jan 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2021-826', William Collins, 02 Nov 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2021-826', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jan 2022

Shipra Jain et al.

Shipra Jain et al.

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Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ~3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
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