Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-297
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-297

  29 Apr 2021

29 Apr 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

The impact of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone pollution and temperature: A copula-based approach

Noelia Otero1,2,a, Oscar Jurado2, Tim Butler1,2, and Henning W. Rust2 Noelia Otero et al.
  • 1Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany
  • anow at: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Bern, Switzerland

Abstract. Ozone pollution and high temperatures have adverse health impacts that can be amplified by the combined effects of ozone and temperature. Moreover, changes in weather patterns are expected to alter ozone pollution episodes and temperature extremes. In particular, atmospheric blocking is a high-impact large-scale phenomenon at mid-high latitudes that has been associated with temperature extremes. This study examines the impact of atmospheric blocking on the ozone and temperature dependence among measurement stations over Europe. We use a copula-based method to model the dependence between both variables under blocking and non blocking conditions. This approach allows to examine the impact of blocks on the joint probability distribution. Our results showed that blocks lead to an increasing strength in the upper tail dependence of ozone and temperature extremes (>95th) in north-west and central Europe (e.g UK, Benelux, north-west of France and Germany). The analysis of the probability hazard scenarios revealed that blocks generally enhance the probability of compound ozone and temperature events by 20 % in a large number of stations over central Europe. The probability of ozone or temperature exceedances increases 30 % (on average) under the presence of atmospheric blocking. Furthermore, we found that in a number of stations over north-western Europe atmospheric blocking increases the probability of ozone exceedances by 30 % given high temperatures. Our results point out the strong influence of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone and temperature events, suggesting that blocks might be considered as a relevant predicting factor when assessing the risks of ozone-heat related health effects.

Noelia Otero et al.

Status: open (until 24 Jun 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Noelia Otero et al.

Noelia Otero et al.

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Short summary
Surface ozone and temperature are strongly dependent and their extremes might be exacerbated by underlying climatological drivers, such as atmospheric blocking. Using an observational data set, we measure the dependence structure between ozone and temperature under the influence of atmospheric blocking. Blocks enhanced the probability of occurrence of compound ozone and temperature extremes over northwestern and central Europe, leading to higher health risks.
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