Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-241
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-241

  12 May 2021

12 May 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

The Sun's Role for Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic

Annika Drews1,2, Wenjuan Huo1, Katja Matthes1, Kunihiko Kodera3,4, and Tim Kruschke5 Annika Drews et al.
  • 1GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24118 Kiel, Germany
  • 2SINTEF Ocean AS, 7010 Trondheim, Norway
  • 3Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
  • 4RIKEN Nishina Center for Accelerator-Based Science, Wako, Saitama 351-0198, Japan
  • 5SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute – Rossby Centre, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

Abstract. Despite several studies on decadal-scale solar influence on climate, a systematic detection of solar-induced signals at the surface and the Sun's contribution to decadal climate predictability is still missing. Here, we disentangle the solar-cycle-induced climate response from internal variability and from other external forcings such as greenhouse gases. We utilize two 10-member ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry climate model, to date a unique data set in chemistry climate modelling. We quantify the potential predictability related to the solar cycle and demonstrate that the detectability of the solar influence on surface climate depends on the magnitude of the solar cycle. Further, we show that a strong solar cycle forcing organizes and synchronizes the decadal-scale component of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic region.

Annika Drews et al.

Status: open (until 07 Jul 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Annika Drews et al.

Annika Drews et al.

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Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region, and find that changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
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