Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-198
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-198

  23 Apr 2021

23 Apr 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Aerosol reductions outweigh circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze

Liang Guo1, Laura J. Wilcox1,2, Massimo Bollasina3, Steven T. Turnock4, Marianne T. Lund5, and Lixia Zhang6 Liang Guo et al.
  • 1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom
  • 2Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 3School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • 4Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Uinted Kingdom
  • 5Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 6State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract. Despite local emission reductions, severe haze events remain a serious issue in Beijing. Previous studies have suggested that both greenhouse gas increases and aerosol decreases are likely to increase the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze events. However, the combined effect of atmospheric circulation changes and aerosol and precursor emission changes on Beijing haze remains unclear. We use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to explore the effects of aerosol and greenhouse gas emission changes on both haze weather and Beijing haze itself. We confirm that the occurrence of haze weather patterns is likely to increase in future under all SSPs, and show that even though aerosol reductions play a small role, greenhouse gas increases are the main driver, especially during the second half of the 21st century. However, the severity of the haze events decreases on decadal timescales by as much as 70 % by 2100. The main influence on the haze itself is the reductions in local aerosol emissions, which outweigh the effects of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. This demonstrates that aerosol reductions are beneficial, despite their influence on the circulation.

Liang Guo et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2021-198', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 May 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2021-198', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Jun 2021

Liang Guo et al.

Liang Guo et al.

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Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite of emissions decrease since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The conducive haze weather pattern increases with the atmospheric warning caused by the accumulating greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or the optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
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