05 Jan 2022

05 Jan 2022

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Global total ozone recovery trends derived from five merged ozone datasets

Mark Weber1, Carlo Arosio1, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers2, Vitali Fioletov3, Stacey M. Frith4, Jeannete D. Wild5,6, Kleareti Tourpali7, John P. Burrows1, and Diego Loyola2 Mark Weber et al.
  • 1University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
  • 2German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 3Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
  • 4Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
  • 5NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA
  • 6CISESS/ESSIC, UMD, College Park, MD, USA
  • 7Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract. We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update from the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, -2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and UV Radiation Data Center (WOUDC).

Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of four more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed on slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone depleting substances (ODS) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near global ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1996 was 0.5 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is in absolute numbers roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.4 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1996. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1996 which confirms the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed trends are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI (Chemistry Climate Model Initiative) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios.

The positive ODS related trends in the NH after 1996 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer-Dobson circulation, AO, AAO). A standard MLR (limited to solar, QBO, volcanic, and ENSO) leads to zero trends showing that the small positive ODS related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.

Mark Weber et al.

Status: open (until 16 Feb 2022)

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Mark Weber et al.

Mark Weber et al.


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Short summary
Long-term trends in column ozone have been determined from five merged total ozone datasets spanning the period 1978–2020. We show that ozone recovery due to the decline in stratospheric halogens after the 1990s (as regulated by the Montreal Protocol) is evident outside the tropical region and amounts to half a percent per decade. The ozone recovery in the northern hemisphere is however compensated by negative long-term trend contribution from atmospheric dynamics since the year 2000.