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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-793
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-793
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  10 Sep 2020

10 Sep 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

The response of mesospheric H2O and CO to solar irradiance variability in the models and observations

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel1,2,, Eugene Rozanov1,2,, Ales Kuchar3,, William Ball4,, Pavle Arsenovic5, Ellis Remsberg6, Patrick Jöckel7, Markus Kunze8, David A. Plummer9, Andrea Stenke1, Daniel Marsh10,11, Doug Kinnison10, and Thomas Peter1 Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.
  • 1The Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC) ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 2The Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
  • 3Leipzig Institute for Meteorology (LIM), Leipzig, Germany
  • 4Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands
  • 5Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA), Dübendorf, Switzerland
  • 6Science Directorate NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, USA
  • 7Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Wessling, Germany
  • 8Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
  • 9Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada
  • 10National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
  • 11Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, UK
  • These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract. Water vapor (H2O) is the source of reactive hydrogen radicals in the middle atmosphere, whereas carbon monoxide (CO), being formed by CO2 photolysis, is suitable as a dynamical tracer. In the mesosphere, both H2O and CO are sensitive to solar irradiance variability because of their destruction/production by solar radiation. This enables to analyze the solar signal in both, models and observed data. Here, we evaluate the mesospheric H2O and CO response to solar irradiance variability using the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) simulations and satellite data. We analyzed the results of four CCMI models (CMAM, EMAC-L90MA, SOCOLv3, CESM1-WACCM 3.5) operated in CCMI reference simulation REF-C1SD in specified dynamics mode, covering the period from 1984 to 2017. Multiple linear regression analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust response of H2O and CO to solar irradiance variability, and to the annual and semiannual cycles. For periods with available satellite data, we compared the simulated solar signal against satellite observations, namely during 1992–2017 for H2O and 2005–2017 for CO. The model results generally agree with observations and reproduce an expected negative and positive correlation for H2O and CO, respectively, with solar irradiance. However, the magnitude of the response and patterns of the solar signal varies among the considered models, indicating differences in the applied chemical reaction and dynamical schemes including the representation of photolyses. We suggest that there is no dominating thermospheric influence of solar irradiance in CO, as reported in previous studies because the response to solar variability is comparable with observations in both, low-top and high-top models. We stress the importance of this work for improving our understanding of the current ability and limitations of state-of-the-art models to simulate a solar signal in the chemistry and dynamic of the middle atmosphere.

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.

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Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.

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Short summary
1) The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using MLR analysis. 2) MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. 3) The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. 4) The pattern of the solar signal rather varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model set-up.
1) The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model...
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