Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 5.414
IF5.414
IF 5-year value: 5.958
IF 5-year
5.958
CiteScore value: 9.7
CiteScore
9.7
SNIP value: 1.517
SNIP1.517
IPP value: 5.61
IPP5.61
SJR value: 2.601
SJR2.601
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 191
Scimago H
index
191
h5-index value: 89
h5-index89
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-311
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-311
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  15 Apr 2020

15 Apr 2020

Review status
This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality

Yang Li1, Loretta J. Mickley1, and Jed O. Kaplan2 Yang Li et al.
  • 1John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
  • 2Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Abstract. Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. However, the projected dust trends under climate change are sometimes contradictory. Here we link a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of future changes in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use practices on dust mobilization, and to investigate the consequences for surface air quality. Considering all factors in the most extreme future warming scenario, we find decreasing trends of fine dust emissions over Arizona and New Mexico but increasing emissions along Mexico's northern border in the late-21st century during springtime, the season of maximum dust emissions. These trends result from more densely vegetated environments in the arid southwestern U.S. under future climate, but sparser vegetation in northern Mexico. The two main drivers of dust trends in this region – CO2 fertilization and land use intensification – play opposing roles, with the first driver enhancing vegetation and thus decreasing dust in the southwestern U.S. and the second driver increasing dust in northern Mexico. In the absence of CO2 fertilization, the RCP8.5 scenario places an upper bound on increases in dust, with elevated concentrations widespread over the southwestern North America by 2100 in spring, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ~2.0 µg m−3) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ~2.5 µg m−3).

Yang Li et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Yang Li et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 357 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
264 77 16 357 22 13 13
  • HTML: 264
  • PDF: 77
  • XML: 16
  • Total: 357
  • Supplement: 22
  • BibTeX: 13
  • EndNote: 13
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Apr 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Apr 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 256 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 255 with geography defined and 1 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 26 Sep 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles, with CO2 fertilization enhancing vegetation and thus decreasing dust and with increasing land use enhancing dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North...
Citation
Altmetrics