20 Jan 2021

20 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models: performance, impacts and future

Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz1,2, Alessio Bozzo3,a, Nicholas Byrne4, Martyn P. Chipperfield5,6, Michail Diamantakis7, Johannes Flemming7, Lesley J. Gray1,2, Robin J. Hogan7,4, Luke Jones7, Linus Magnusson7, Inna Polichtchouk7, Theodore G. Shepherd4, Nils Wedi7, and Antje Weisheimer1,2,7 Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz et al.
  • 1Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • 2National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • 3European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Darmstadt, Germany
  • 4Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 5School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
  • 6National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
  • 7European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
  • aformerly at: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract. We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, and tested its performance for different timescales, to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless NWP modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation, and an increase in the signal to noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere-tropospheric coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of time scales.

Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2020-1261', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Feb 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2020-1261', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Apr 2021

Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz et al.

Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz et al.


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Short summary
The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different time scales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere-troposphere coupling.