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The anthropogenic emission of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) over China has significantly declined as the consequence of clean air actions. We have developed a new emission inversion system to dynamically update the SO2 emission grid by grid over China by assimilating the ground-based SO2 observations. The inverted SO2 emission over China in November 2016 on average has declined by 49.4 % since 2010, which is well agreement with the bottom-up estimation of 48.0 %.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1259
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1259

  17 Dec 2020

17 Dec 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Revealing the sulfur dioxide emission reductions in China by assimilating surface observations in WRF-Chem

Tie Dai1,2, Yueming Cheng1,2, Daisuke Goto3, Yingruo Li4, Xiao Tang5, Guangyu Shi1,2, and Teruyuki Nakajima3 Tie Dai et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 2Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  • 3National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 4Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
  • 5State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract. The anthropogenic emission of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) over China has significantly declined as the consequence of clean air actions. In this study, we have developed a new emission inversion system based on a Four-Dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to dynamically update the SO2 emission grid by grid over China by assimilating the ground-based hourly SO2 observations. Sensitivity tests for the assimilation system have been conducted firstly to tune four system parameters: ensemble size, horizontal and temporal localization lengths, and perturbation size. Our results reveal that the same random perturbation factors used throughout the whole model grids with assimilating observations within about 180 km can efficiently optimize the SO2 emission, whereas the ensemble size has only little effect. The temporal localization by assimilating only the subsequent hourly observations can reveal the diurnal variation of the SO2 emission, which is better than that to update the the magnitude of SO2 emission every 12 hours by assimilating all the observations within the 12-hour window. The inverted SO2 emission over China in November 2016 has declined by an average of 49.4 % since 2010, which is well in agreement with the bottom-up estimation of 48.0 %. Larger reductions of SO2 emission are found over the priori higher source regions such as the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The simulated SO2 surface mass concentrations using two distinguished chemical reaction mechanisms are both much more comparable to the observations with the newly inverted SO2 emission than those with the priori emission. These indicate that the newly developed emission inversion system can efficiently update the SO2 emissions based on the routine surface SO2 observations. The reduced SO2 emission induces the sulfate and PM2.5 surface concentrations to decrease up to 10 μg m−3 over the center China.

Tie Dai et al.

 
Status: open (until 11 Feb 2021)
Status: open (until 11 Feb 2021)
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Tie Dai et al.

Tie Dai et al.

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Short summary
The anthropogenic emission of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) over China has significantly declined as the consequence of clean air actions. We have developed a new emission inversion system to dynamically update the SO2 emission grid by grid over China by assimilating the ground-based SO2 observations. The inverted SO2 emission over China in November 2016 on average has declined by 49.4 % since 2010, which is well agreement with the bottom-up estimation of 48.0 %.
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