11 Dec 2020

11 Dec 2020

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Responses of Arctic Black Carbon and Surface Temperature to Multi-Region Emission Reductions: an HTAP2 Ensemble Modeling Study

Na Zhao1, Xinyi Dong2, Joshua S. Fu3,4, Marianne Tronstad Lund5, Kengo Sudo6, Daven Henze7, Tom Kucsera8, Yun Fat Lam9, Mian Chin10, Simone Tilmes11, and Kan Huang1 Na Zhao et al.
  • 1Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • 2School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
  • 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
  • 4Computational Earth Science Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
  • 5CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 6Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chigusa-ku, Nagoya, Japan
  • 7Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 8Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 9Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China
  • 10Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 11Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change of the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. It was found that the emissions from East Asia (EAS) had most (18.1 %–51.4 %) significant impact on the Arctic while the monthly contributions from Europe, Middle East, North America, Russia Belarus Ukraine, and South Asia were 20.1 %–49.9 %, 0.02 %–0.9 %, 8.3 %–19.3 %, 5.4 %–18.1 %, and 3.1 %–7.7 %, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions of six source regions became less significant with the increase of the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using Absolute Regional Temperature-change Potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

Na Zhao et al.

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Na Zhao et al.


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Short summary
Black carbon acts as a strong climate forcer, especially in vulnerable pristine regions such as the Arctic. This work utilizes ensemble modeling results from the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase2 to investigate the responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to various source emission reductions. East Asia contributed the most to Arctic black carbon. The response of Arctic temperature to black carbon was substantially more sensitive than the global average.