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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1001
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1001
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  12 Oct 2020

12 Oct 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Sensitivity of modeled Indian Monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

Peter Sherman1, Meng Gao2,3, Shaojie Song3, Alex T. Archibald4,5, Nathan Luke Abraham4,5, Jean-François Lamarque6, Drew Shindell7, Gregory Faluvegi8,9, and Michael B. McElroy1,3 Peter Sherman et al.
  • 1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
  • 2Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR, China
  • 3School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
  • 4National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 5Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 6National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
  • 7Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
  • 8NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY
  • 9Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York NY

Abstract. The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols on India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Peter Sherman et al.

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Peter Sherman et al.

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Short summary
The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols on India's monsoon precipitation and to determine the relative contributions from Chinese and Indian emissions using CMIP6 models. We find that increased sulfur emissions reduce precipitation, which is primarily dynamically driven due to spatial shifts in convection over the region. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both Indian and Chinese sulfate emissions are regulated.
The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols on India's monsoon precipitation and to...
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