References

ACPD

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

ACPD

Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.

1680-7375

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acpd-14-26231-2014

Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6823-9603

¹ Liang

X.-Z.

¹ ² Lei

³ Wuebbles

D. J.

⁴

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Air Resource Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61820, USA

20 10 2014

14 19 26231 26256

2014

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/14/26231/2014/acpd-14-26231-2014.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/14/26231/2014/acpd-14-26231-2014.pdf

A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6–10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20–50% in A1B and positive 20–40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15–50% and 10–30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from −10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

RD-83337302

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