ACPAtmospheric Chemistry and PhysicsACPAtmos. Chem. Phys.1680-7324Copernicus PublicationsGöttingen, Germany10.5194/acp-19-887-2019Impacts of climate change and emissions on atmospheric oxidized nitrogen
deposition over East AsiaImpacts of climate change and emissions on NOy deposition
over East AsiaZhangJunxiGaoYangyanggao@ouc.edu.cnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-6544LeungL. Rubyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467LuoKunzjulk@zju.edu.cnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2384-819XLiuHuanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2217-0591LamarqueJean-Francoishttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4225-5074FanJianrenYaoXiaohongGaoHuiwanghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4274-0811NagashimaTatsuyaState Key Laboratory of Clean Energy, Department of Energy
Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310027,
ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry
of Education/Institute for Advanced Ocean Study, Ocean University of China,
Qingdao, Shandong, 266100, ChinaLaboratory for Marine Ecology and
Environmental Science, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and
Technology, Qingdao, 266100, ChinaAtmospheric Sciences and Global
Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Richland, WA, USASchool of Environment, Tsinghua
University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaAtmospheric Chemistry and
Climate and Global Dynamics Divisions, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO, USANational Institute for
Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JapanYang Gao (yanggao@ouc.edu.cn) and Kun Luo (zjulk@zju.edu.cn)23January20191928879002September201830October201827December201810January2019This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/887/2019/acp-19-887-2019.htmlThe full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/887/2019/acp-19-887-2019.pdf
A multi-model ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model
Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations is used to study the atmospheric
oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition over East Asia under
climate and emission changes projected for the future. Both dry and wet
NOy deposition show significant decreases in the 2100s under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, primarily due to large anthropogenic emission reduction
over both land and sea. However, in the near future of the 2030s, both dry
and wet NOy deposition increase significantly due to
continued increase in emissions. Marine primary production from both dry and
wet NOy deposition increases by 19 %–34 % in the
2030s and decreases by 34 %–63 % in the 2100s over the East China
Sea. The individual effect of climate or emission changes on dry and wet
NOy deposition is also investigated. The impact of climate
change on dry NOy deposition is relatively minor, but the
effect on wet deposition, primarily caused by changes in precipitation, is
much higher. For example, over the East China Sea, wet NOy
deposition increases significantly in summer due to climate change by the end
of this century under RCP8.5, which may subsequently enhance marine primary
production. Over the coastal seas of China, as the transport of
NOy from land becomes weaker due to the decrease in
anthropogenic emissions, the effect of ship emissions and lightning emissions
becomes more important. On average, the seasonal mean contribution of ship
emissions to total NOy deposition is projected to be
enhanced by 24 %–48 % and 3 %–37 % over the Yellow Sea and
East China Sea, respectively, by the end of this century. Therefore,
continued control of both anthropogenic emissions over land and ship
emissions may reduce NOy deposition to the Chinese coastal
seas.
Introduction
As a nutrient, nitrogen is essential to the terrestrial and marine ecosystems
and plays vital roles in human
health (Galloway et al., 2008), biodiversity (Butchart et al., 2010), primary
production (PP) (Doney et al., 2007; Stevens et al., 2015), etc. The oceans
comprise the largest and most important ecosystems on Earth and atmospheric
nitrogen deposition is an important pathway for delivering nutrients to the
ocean (Duce et al., 2008).
The characteristics of atmospheric deposition have been widely studied around
the world. The concentrations and fluxes of trace elements in atmospheric
deposition are influenced by many factors such as rainfall amount, local
emissions, long-range transport of pollutants, etc. (Kim et
al., 2000, 2012; Cong et al., 2010; Theodosi et al., 2010; Vuai and Tokuyama,
2011; Connan et al., 2013; Montoya-Mayor et al., 2013). Studies have shown
significant changes of nitrogen deposition in the future under the influence
of changes in both climate and emissions following the Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (Van Vuuren et al., 2011; Ellis et al., 2013;
Lamarque et al., 2013a).
Since projections of future changes in nitrogen deposition from individual
models are prone to specific model errors (Reichler and Kim, 2008; Shindell
et al., 2013), multi-model ensembles of either climate (Gao et al., 2014,
2016) or chemistry (Lamarque et al., 2013a, b) are important for identifying
robust and non-robust changes projected by models. This study uses the
nitrogen deposition from an ensemble of models that contributed to the
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP;
Lamarque et al., 2013b). The nitrogen deposition includes both the oxidized
nitrogen deposition (NOy, mainly including NO, NO2,
NO3-, N2O5, HNO3, HNO4 and organic
nitrates) and reduced nitrogen (NHx, mainly including
NH3, NH4+ and organic ammonium). Since the number of models
with NHx in ACCMIP is less than five, this study only focuses
on the NOy (10 models or so) deposition, which mainly
results from NOx emissions.
Due to rapid economic development in China, NOx emission
increase in the past (Wang et al., 2013) has led to an increase in nitrogen
deposition. For example, Liu et al. (2013) found that nitrogen deposition
over land in China increased from 13.2 kg ha-1 in the 1980s to
21.1 kg ha-1 in the 2000s, with an increase of 60 %. In addition, the
increased NOx emissions may also enhance
NOy deposition in Chinese coastal seas due to the
atmospheric and riverine transport of NOx (Luo et al.,
2014). In particular, China has a long coastline of almost 18 000 km in
length and over 300 million km2 sea areas, with high-density population
and industries in the coastal provinces. For NOx emissions
over the oceans, shipping emissions are the dominant contributor (Dalsøren
et al., 2009; Eyring et al., 2010). Lauer et al. (2007) discussed the
significant impact of shipping emissions on aerosols such as aerosol nitrate
burden, implying potentially subsequent influence on nitrogen deposition. Fan
et al. (2016) concluded that 85 % of ship emissions took place within
200 km of the coastlines, indicating a stronger influence of ship emissions on
coastal seas than remote areas. Liu et al. (2016) reported that the shipping
NOx emissions in East Asia increased from 1.08 Tg in 2002
to 2.8 Tg in 2013, accounting for nearly 9 % of total
NOx emissions in East Asia and 16.5 % of global shipping
NOx emissions. In ACCMIP, the NOx emissions
over the ocean mainly come from shipping, with a much smaller amount from
aircraft as well as lightning since lightning NOx is
concentrated in the tropical land areas (Price et al., 1997).
Studies on the changes of nitrogen deposition under the influence of both
climate and emission changes have been limited over East Asia. Using the old
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) such as A2, Lamarque et
al. (2005) found large increases in nitrogen deposition over East Asia due to
increased emissions, whereas the effect from climate change is much smaller
and lacks consensus due to the small ensemble size. In 2100 nitrogen
deposition changes due to changes in climate are much less than changes due
to increased nitrogen emissions. In contrast, based on the new scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, Lamarque et al. (2013a) found that the total
NOy deposition (wet + dry; Fig. 5a in Lamarque et al.,
2013a) over East Asia was projected to decrease by the end of this century
due to the combined effect of emissions and climate, but the changes are
mainly triggered by the decrease in emissions. However, the individual effect
of climate or emissions was not examined in that study. With the same dataset
of ACCMIP, Allen et al. (2015) found that by keeping the emissions at the current
level, aerosol wet deposition decreases over the land areas of the tropics and
Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes due to the decrease in large-scale
precipitation, subsequently enhancing the increase in wet deposition over the
ocean through the transport effect. Climate change alone may modulate the
changes in the deposition, particularly for wet deposition due to the
response of precipitation to climate change. Hence, it is important to
elucidate the influence of climate and emission changes on dry and wet
NOy deposition over East Asia using the multi-model ensemble
ACCMIP results.
In what follows, we first discuss the capability of ACCMIP in capturing the
deposition patterns, followed by the changes of dry and wet deposition in the
future under the combined effect of climate change and emissions. Lastly, we
elucidate the individual effect from climate change or emissions.
Scenarios used in this study.
BaseChanges in both climate and emissions Climate change only ScenariosHistoricalRCP4.5RCP8.5Em2000Cl2030Em2000Cl2100Period2000–20102030–20392030–20392030–20392100–21092100–21092100–2109Model description
In this study, about 10 models from ACCMIP are used, similar to Lamarque et
al. (2013b). All the data are interpolated to a spatial resolution of
2∘×2∘ to facilitate analysis and comparison across
models. To evaluate the impacts of climate and emission change as well as to
isolate their individual effect, five cases of ACCMIP scenarios are used in
this study, as listed in Table 1. The base case over the historical period
covers the decade of 2000, mainly from 2001 to 2010. Two cases target the
investigation of both climate and emission changes under future scenarios of
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, covering two periods in the decades of 2030 and 2100
(first column of Table 1). The remaining two cases are used to investigate
the impact from climate change only in the 2030s and 2100s under RCP8.5 by
maintaining emissions at the level of the year 2000 (last column of Table 1). As
different models have different simulation years, some models may not cover
the entire decades of the 2030s and 2100s. Detailed simulation lengths for each
model are listed in Table S1 (in the Supplement). In the ACCMIP dataset, the
summation of all simulated oxidized nitrogen species is referred to as
NOy, which is the major focus of this study.
Evaluation of seasonal mean precipitation during 2001–2010: ACCMIP
multi-model ensemble mean vs. TRMM and GPCP.
Evaluation of the ACCMIP results
The deposition results of ACCMIP have been extensively evaluated previously
across land areas by comparing with three datasets including the National
Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP),
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Acid Deposition
Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET), and reasonable performance was
demonstrated by the ACCMIP results (Lamarque et al., 2013a). There is a lack
of deposition data over the ocean, making evaluation of the ACCMIP results
across the oceans difficult. Recently, Baker et al. (2017) conducted an
intensive evaluation of the ACCMIP multi-model mean based on a large number
of dry NOy deposition samples, i.e., a total of 770 samples
collected over the Pacific, showing comparable spatial distributions between
observations and ACCMIP, such as a consistent northwest–southeast gradient
with higher deposition flux closer to the coast (Fig. 12 in Baker et al.,
2017). In terms of wet deposition, considering the close relationship between
wet deposition and precipitation (Kryza et al., 2012; Wałaszek et al.,
2013), evaluation of precipitation is performed using the Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM; http://pmm.nasa.gov/trmm, last access: 18
January 2019) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) v2.3 (Adler
et al., 2018) precipitation data. Figure 1 shows a comparison of the annual
mean precipitation over the historical period (2000–2010) among the ACCMIP
multi-model ensemble mean, TRMM, which only covers
60∘ N–60∘ S, and GPCP. In general, the ACCMIP mean
precipitation captures the spatial variations in the observed precipitation
from both TRMM and GPCP well, with stronger precipitation in the southern
part of Asia, particularly over the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal,
and lighter precipitation in northern China (i.e., northwest China). In
particular, the rain belt stretching from the east of Japan to the
Philippines in summer is also well captured by ACCMIP. To further illustrate
the uncertainties among different models, the standard deviation of seasonal
mean precipitation across all ACCMIP models over East Asia is shown in
Fig. S1 (in the Supplement), within 1–2 mm day-1 over Chinese coastal
seas.
Spatial distribution of mean seasonal dry NOy
deposition over East Asia under historical (2001–2010; a) as well
as future changes. Panels (b)–(e) represent changes under
RCP4.5 2030s, RCP4.5 2100s, RCP8.5 2030s and RCP8.5 2100s relative to the
historical period. Only grids with multi-model agreement are shown (grids
without model agreement are in white), and stippling marks areas with
statistical significance (t test; α=0.05). Regions of the Bohai Sea
(BS), Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ES) are marked by the pink
rectangles in the top left panel, with mean changes shown on the top left of
each panel in (b)–(e). Only grids with significant change
in the ocean areas are calculated. The mean change of a region is set to
nan if the number of significant grids in this region is fewer than
half of the area.
Future changes of NOy deposition in East Asia
Considering the uncertainty and variability among multiple ACCMIP results,
all analyses, i.e., the future changes of deposition, are performed based on
model agreement and statistical significance. Following our previous studies
(Gao et al., 2014, 2015), results at a model grid cell are considered to have
agreement if at least 70 % of the ACCMIP models show the same sign of
change as the ACCMIP multi-model ensemble mean. For models showing agreement
with the ensemble mean, if more than half of the models show statistical
significance at the 95 % level, then the ensemble mean change for that
particular grid is considered to be statistically significant.
The seasonal mean distribution of dry NOy deposition over
East Asia areas for historical (2001–2010) and projected future changes
under RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) during the two periods of 2030 and
2100 are shown in Fig. 2. The four seasons defined in this study are spring
(March–May), summer (June–August), fall (September–November) and winter
(December–February). Regional mean changes over the BYE (Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea) areas are shown in each
panel, calculated from multi-model mean results. The corresponding standard
deviations of multiple models are shown in Table S2.
As anthropogenic activities play important roles in NOx
emissions, high atmospheric dry nitrogen (NOy) deposition
values mainly cluster around areas with high population density and
industrial activities in the historical periods (Fig. 2a), e.g.,
high values of NOy deposition can be seen in east China,
Korea, Japan and their coastal seas. In this study, in addition to the land
areas, we also focus on three coastal seas in East Asia (BYE areas), marked by the three pink boxes in Fig. 2a. A gradient of
decreasing NOy deposition is found (Fig. 2a) from
eastern China to the coastal areas. Seasonal variations show that over
mainland China summer is the season with the highest dry and wet
NOy deposition, with high dry deposition likely caused by
the high deposition velocity (Zhang et al., 2017) and wet deposition due to
more precipitation in summer, consistent with previous studies (Liu et al.,
2017; Zhang et al., 2017; Xu et al., 2018). Over the Yellow Sea
and East China Sea, the notably higher NOy deposition (first
row of Fig. 2) is partly attributed to NOx emissions
transported from land to the coastal seas. In particular, the dry
NOy deposition over the East China Sea is obviously higher
in winter compared to summer, likely resulting from enhanced transport by the
northwesterly winds during the winter monsoon (Ding, 1993).
Same as Fig. 2 except for wet NOy deposition.
Considering the projected future changes of NOy deposition,
we show the distributions in the 2030s and 2100s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, representing near-term and long-term changes. Dry
NOy deposition decreases remarkably in the 2100s under the
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over East Asia, a result of a large decrease in
emissions (second column in Fig. S2). In the 2030s, in addition to
the decrease in dry deposition in Japan, Korea and the surrounding areas, RCP8.5 shows a predominant increase in dry deposition (Fig. 2d); in
contrast, robust significant increases in western China and India are
projected, with few or weak signals in eastern China in RCP4.5,
consistent with the emission change patterns (first column in Fig. S2).
For wet NOy deposition, as discussed earlier, summer is the
season with the strongest deposition (Fig. 3a), primarily caused by
the highest precipitation among the four seasons (Fig. 1). In the 2030s,
changes of wet deposition (Fig. 3b, d) are, in general,
similar to the patterns of dry deposition changes (Fig. 2b, d), with standard deviation of wet deposition shown in Table S3. In the
2100s, the patterns of wet deposition changes are different from those of dry
deposition, with relatively clear east–west dipole features, in particular
under RCP8.5. To elucidate what controls the dipole patterns, the individual
effect of climate change and emissions is discussed in the next section.
The impact of climate change or emissions on NOy
deposition
Two scenarios from ACCMIP are used in this study to isolate the influence of
anthropogenic emissions and climate change on NOy
deposition. The two scenarios are shown in Table 1, with emissions kept at
the current level (the decade of 2000s) but climate for the 2030s and 2100s
under RCP8.5 are compared.
Spatial distribution of mean seasonal dry NOy
deposition change over East Asia under experimental scenarios of ACCMIP
(Em2000Cl2030 and Em2000Cl2100) relative to the historical period (2001–2010).
The distribution of mean seasonal dry NOy deposition under
the
historical period is shown in Fig. 2a. Only grids with multi-model agreement
are shown (grids without model agreement are in white), and among the grids
with model agreement, stippling marks statistical significance
(α=0.05).
Climate change alone has negligible contributions to the dry
NOy deposition changes, as shown in Fig. 4. Generally,
calculation of dry deposition flux in chemical models follows Eq. (1), where F is vertical dry deposition flux,
C is concentration of specific gas or particle and vd is the dry
deposition velocity.
F=-vdC
All models in ACCMIP calculated dry deposition velocity using the resistance
approach (Lamarque et al., 2013b), which defines the inverse of dry
deposition velocity as Eq. (2),
1vd=rt=ra+rb+rc,
where rt is the total resistance, ra is the aerodynamic
resistance, which is common to all gases, rb is the quasilaminar
sublayer resistance and rc is the bulk surface resistance
(Steinfeld, 1998). As rb depends on the molecular properties of the
target substance and deposition surface and rc depends on the
nature of the surface (Steinfeld, 1998), they do not vary under climate change.
As for ra, it plays a significant role in transporting gases and
particles from the atmosphere to the receptor surface. Ra is governed
by atmospheric turbulent transport, mainly controlled by the wind shear as
well as buoyancy (Erisman and Draaijers, 2003). Therefore, climate change
affects dry deposition velocity for the gases or particles mainly through its
modulation of ra. As shown in Fig. 4, the changes of dry
depositions from climate change alone are mostly negligible compared to the
total changes from both climate change and emissions (Fig. 2), indicating
statistically insignificant change of ra under a warmer climate.
Considering the impact of climate conditions on NOy
deposition, precipitation is an important factor and has been shown to
positively correlate with wet NOy deposition (Kryza et al.,
2012; Wałaszek et al., 2013). In order to further quantify the
relationship between wet deposition and precipitation, we display in Fig. 5
the correlation between the changes of precipitation and wet
NOy deposition over the BYE areas for the scenarios with
fixed emissions. All correlations are positive and statistically significant.
There is a larger inter-model spread of changes in Em2000Cl2100 compared to
Em2000Cl2030, and the larger changes in precipitation and wet deposition
allow a stronger correlation between them to emerge in the 2100s relative to
the 2030s. Meanwhile, winter shows the highest correlation in both
Em2000Cl2030 and Em2000Cl2100, partly related to the significant decrease in
both wet NOy deposition and precipitation in winter under
Em2000Cl2100 over the East China Sea, which will be discussed in detail next.
Comparison between precipitation and wet NOy
deposition changes under the experimental scenarios of ACCMIP (Em2000Cl2030
and Em2000Cl2100) relative to the historical period (2001–2010) over the Bohai Sea
(red points), Yellow Sea (blue points) and East China Sea (black points). An
r test (α=0.05) is performed in each panel for statistical
significance and the star before “R” indicates statistical significance at
the
95 % confidence level. Each point in this figure corresponds to the
results from an individual model of ACCMIP.
Spatial distribution of mean seasonal wet NOy
deposition change and precipitation change under EM2000Cl2030 and
Em2000Cl2100 relative to the historical period (2001–2010). The panels are drawn
and arranged in the same manner as Fig. 2.
As depicted in Fig. 6, the changes of wet deposition in the 2030s due to
climate change are mostly insignificant (Fig. 6a) and correspond well with
the insignificant changes of precipitation (Fig. 6c). Similarly, the
patterns in the 2100s between the changes of wet deposition (Fig. 6b) and
precipitation (Fig. 6d) are quite consistent. For example, in spring,
summer and fall, a dominant increase in western China is projected (first
three panels in Fig. 6b,d), whereas in winter a north and
southeastern dipole feature is clearly seen. Over the East China Sea, wet
NOy deposition increases significantly in summer (18 %)
and decreases significantly in winter (-13 %), indicating a remarkable
influence of climate change on the wet NOy deposition. The
changes of precipitation are generally consistent with those reported in other
studies. Both Chong-Hai and Ying (2012) and Wang and Chen (2014) show a
significant increase in precipitation except for eastern south China at the
end of the 21st century under RCP8.5. Comparing Fig. 6 with Fig. 3, it is
clear that the dipole pattern of changes in wet deposition in the 2100s shown
in Fig. 3 is primarily related to the large reduction of emissions over
eastern China.
From the global perspective, the emissions of nitrogen oxide are, in general,
balanced by the NOy deposition as documented in Lamarque et
al. (2013a) using the ACCMIP model results, although NOy
deposition might be larger due to the downward transport from the
stratosphere. For a particular region, the NOy deposition
can be considered to be the contribution of both local NOx
emissions such as shipping and lightning as well as transport
from the East Asian continent. Therefore, we calculate the multi-model
seasonal mean NOy deposition and NOx
emissions from shipping and lightning. As was documented by Liu et
al. (2016), ship emissions from the East China Sea may account for a large
percentage (31 %) of the total ship emissions in East Asia, indicating the
strong effect of ship emissions over Chinese coastal seas. To avoid biases
from spatial interpolation, calculation is performed based on the original
model grid and regionally averaged for each model. Since the changes in the
Bohai Sea
are less significant in general, particularly in the near future (Figs. 2b, 3b), we only focus on the emission and deposition changes
over the
Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Summary of shipping and lightning
NOx emissions over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea under
historical, RCP and other scenarios is listed in Table S4. Overall, lightning
emissions are much smaller than shipping emissions. In the future, seasonal mean
shipping emissions increase in the 2030s, in particular under RCP8.5, and decrease
in the 2100s under both RCP scenarios, whereas the changes of lightning emissions
are small except in summer, with a mean increase of 73 % over the Yellow Sea and
East China Sea. Based on NOx emissions and
NOy deposition, the percentage of dry and wet deposition, as
well as the ratio of ship emissions and lightning emissions to the total
NOy deposition are shown in Figs. 7 and 8. The ratio of ship
emissions and lightning emissions to the total NOy
deposition is used to characterize their contribution to NOy
deposition with the assumption that all ship and lightning emissions
contribute to the NOy deposition, which can be considered an
upper bound of their contribution.
A couple of features can be identified from Figs. 7 and 8. First, total
NOy deposition was shown as the green dashed line, with all
values consistent with the spatial distributions in Figs. 2–4. By the end of
this century (2100), total NOy deposition decreases
substantially under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, whereas in the 2030s, total
deposition shows a dramatic increase in RCP8.5 but moderate change in RCP4.5
(slight decrease in the Yellow Sea and increase in the East China Sea). The
percentage of dry deposition over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (third and
fifth blue color bars from the left in each panel of Figs. 7, 8) decreases in
the 2100s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, consistent with the patterns shown in
Figs. 2c, e and 3c, e, due primarily to emission reduction.
Second, despite the decrease in shipping emissions in the 2100s, the contribution
of ship emissions to total NOy deposition increases
substantially under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea
(black color bars in Figs. 7, 8), due primarily to the larger emission
reduction over land (e.g., eastern China) compared to ocean (Fig. S2). For
instance, over the historical period, the seasonal contribution of ship
emissions to total NOy deposition is 22 %–30 % and
52 %–82 % for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, respectively; however,
in the 2100s, it reaches 56 %–99 % (RCP4.5) and 42 %–58 % (RCP8.5) for the Yellow Sea and 81 % to almost 100 % (RCP4.5) and 74 % to
almost 100 % (RCP8.5) for the East China Sea, with a mean seasonal increase of
24 %–48 % and 3 %–37 % for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea,
respectively. Third, the contribution of lightning NOx in
spring and winter is negligible; however, the contribution is nontrivial in
summer and fall (orange bars in Figs. 7, 8). In particular, due to the
reduction in anthropogenic emissions over land and ship emissions in the 2100s
under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Fig. S2) along with the increase in lightning
NOx emissions over Chinese coastal seas (Table S4), the
contribution of lightning NOx becomes more obvious compared
with the case without emission reduction. For example, in summer in the
2100s, the contribution of lightning NOx increases from
1 % to 7 % (both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the Yellow Sea and
3 %–7 % in RCP4.5 and 6 % in RCP8.5 over the East China Sea. In fall in the 2100s, the contribution of lightning NOx
increases from less than 1 % to 3 % (both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over
the Yellow Sea and from 1 % to 4 % (both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the East China
Sea. These results illustrate a shift in the future towards enhanced impact
from ship and lightning emissions when anthropogenic emissions are largely
controlled in the upwind land regions.
Stacked bars of the seasonal ratio of NOy deposition
from wet (wetnoy) and dry (drynoy) deposition and NOx
emissions from shipping (emisnox) and lightning (emilnox) to the total
(wet + dry) NOy deposition in the historical and RCP scenarios over the Yellow Sea. Two color bars are shown for each period with the
left one representing dry NOy (blue) and wet
NOy (red) deposition and the right one representing emisnox
(black) and emilnox (orange). A green dashed line representing total
NOy deposition is added to each panel with the y axis on the
right.
Same as Fig. 7 except for the East China Sea.
Panel (a) shows spatial distribution of marine primary production
resulting from NOy deposition over East Asia in historical
periods. Areas over land are blank because the Redfield ratio is only applied
to the ocean areas. The spatial distributions in (b)–(g) refer to
the percentage change of total NOy deposition for all RCP
scenarios and other scenarios used in this study. Values in the ocean areas
can be seen as changes of PP from NOy based on the
definition of the Redfield ratio. In (b)–(g) all distributions
are the
percentage change compared to the historical period and only values with
agreement are shown. Values with statistical significance (α=0.05) are
marked with a black dot.
Marine primary production over the BYE areas and its future change
Generally, the Chinese coastal seas have rich nutrients and high total
PP (Gong et al., 2000; Son et al., 2005). Thus, these areas
seldom lack nutrients but sometimes eutrophication is an environmental issue.
For instance, a massive Ulva prolifera bloom occurred in June 2008 in the
Yellow Sea and the harmful algal bloom garnered a lot of attention. Hu et
al. (2010) found that algal blooms occur in each summer of 2000–2009 in the
Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Atmospheric deposition is an important source
of nutrients for the marine ecosystem, and it can facilitate PP in the ocean surface and contribute to the development of
harmful algal blooms (Paerl, 1997; Paerl et al., 2002).
Several previous studies have investigated PP over the BYE areas and
estimated the historical annual PP to be 97, 236 and
145 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively, for the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and
East China Sea (Guan et al., 2005; Gong et al., 2003). In this study, based
on the assumption that all NOy deposited into the surface ocean
can be absorbed by phytoplankton, we estimate the model-averaged PP from
NOy deposition in the historical period over the BYE areas
according to the Redfield ratio (Tett et al., 1985). The Redfield ratio
refers to the ratios of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in phytoplankton
listed in Eq. (3). Equation (4) is used to calculate PP generated from
NOy deposition, for which PPnoy represents the PP from
NOy deposition and NOy represents total
NOy (wet + dry) deposition.
C:N:P=106:16:1PPnoy=NOy×10616
Results show that PP from historical NOy deposition is 5,
5.4 and 4.4 g C m-2 yr-1 over the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East
China Sea, accounting for 5 %, 2 % and 3 % of PP in those three
seas, respectively. These values are consistent, albeit slightly smaller
due to the consideration of oxidized nitrogen in our study, with
previous studies. For instance, Qi et al. (2013) indicated a contribution of
0.3 %–6.7 % to PP from total dissolved nitrogen deposition over the
Yellow Sea from July 2005 to March 2006, and Zhang et al. (2010) found that
total inorganic nitrogen deposition accounted for 1.1 %–3.9 % of PP
over the East China Sea in 2004.
Recently, several studies have evaluated the change of global PP under future climate change (Steinacher et al., 2010; Koga et al.,
2011; Laufkötter et al., 2015; Cabré et al., 2015). For instance,
based on multi-model ensembles, Cabré et al. (2015) found a general
global decrease (up to 30 %) in total PP projected under RCP8.5 by the
end of this century. We calculate the seasonal PP from NOy
using ACCMIP, with results shown in Fig. 9. It should be noted that Fig. 9b refers to the percentage changes of total
NOy deposition. According to the Redfield ratio, PP from
NOy is proportional to total NOy
deposition, yielding the same percentage change between PP and
NOy. Therefore, the values in the ocean (Fig. 9) also
represent the changes of PP resulting from
NOy deposition. Note that PP in Fig. 9a is
the equivalent PP converted from NOy
deposited into the ocean through nutrient uptake by phytoplankton. Due to
low sea surface temperature in winter, the conversion can hardly happen and
the nutrients may remain until spring (Reay et al., 1999). Therefore, actual
PP from NOy may shift from winter to spring instead.
Moreover, as the Redfield ratio is used to estimate PP from
NOy under all scenarios, potential influence of changes in
other nutrients (e.g., carbon and phosphorus) under RCP scenarios and
experimental scenarios is not considered. Under RCP scenarios, consistent
with the change patterns of total NOy deposition (not
shown), PP from NOy decreases significantly over the BYE
areas in the 2100s, by 60 %–68 % and 34 %–63 % in the four
seasons over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, respectively, under RCP8.5
(Fig. 9c, e). However, in the 2030s, PP from
NOy shows an increase over the BYE areas under RCP8.5
(e.g., 32 %–53 % in the Yellow Sea and 19 %–34 % in East
China Sea; Fig. 9d), with a smaller increase or decrease under RCP4.5 (Fig. 9b). The large increase in NOy in the
near future suggests the increased risk of algal blooms if emissions continue
to increase, and the reduction in NOy in 2100 indicates the
importance of emission reduction in the long term. Without emission
reduction, PP from NOy is projected to increase in 2100s
during summer (Fig. 9g) over the East China Sea, consistent with
the wet deposition pattern change depicted in Fig. 6, indicating that climate
change increases eutrophication through enhancement of precipitation that
increases wet deposition over this region. Hence our results illustrate the
importance of reducing emissions and PP in the BYE areas in the future.
Conclusions and discussions
Atmospheric NOy deposition over East Asia is analyzed to
delineate the influence of climate and emission changes based on the ACCMIP
multi-model ensemble. Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with the combined
effect of climate and emission changes, both dry and wet NOy
deposition shows significant decreases in the 2100s, primarily as a result of
a
large reduction in anthropogenic emissions. In the 2030s, both the dry and
wet NOy deposition increases significantly, particularly
under RCP8.5, mainly because of enhanced emissions. The individual effect of
climate change and emissions on the dry and wet NOy
deposition is also identified, showing a relatively minor impact of climate
change on dry NOy deposition. In terms of wet deposition,
the spatial patterns are in general consistent with those in the changes of
precipitation, particularly at the end of this century. Take the East China
Sea as an example, wet NOy deposition increases
significantly in summer (18 %) and decreases significantly in winter
(-13 %). While climate change alone generally increases wet deposition,
reduction of emissions has a dominant influence of reducing wet deposition
over east China.
Over the Chinese coastal seas such as the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, with
decreasing transport of NOx from mainland China due to
emission reduction, shipping and lightning emissions from the ocean become the
major source of NOy deposition, with a mean seasonal increase
of 24 %–48 % and 3 %–37 % for the Yellow Sea and East China
Sea, respectively. Therefore, reducing shipping emissions in the Chinese coastal
areas is a key factor to reduce nitrogen deposition in the future.
In the 2030s, PP from NOy shows increases over the BYE areas
under RCP8.5, suggesting the increased risk of algal blooms if emissions from ships continue to increase in the near future (Liu et al.,
2016). With climate change only, PP from NOy is projected to
increase in 2100 during summer over the East China Sea, indicating a
supportive role of climate change on eutrophication, and hence the importance
of emission controls.
Although the ACCMIP multi-model ensemble has provided valuable information
for projecting future changes in NOy deposition, the models
used in ACCMIP have relatively coarse spatial resolution for resolving the
complex meteorological and chemical processes. Dynamical downscaling may be
applied in the future to further investigate the impact of climate and
emission on nitrogen deposition over East Asia and the detailed processes
involved. For analysis of marine PP, we used a very simple
approach that ignores biogeochemical processes in the ocean. An ocean
biogeochemistry model will be useful to further quantify the effect of
climate and emissions on PP.
The ACCMIP data used in this study are available at the
British Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
(http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/browse/badc/accmip; last access: 20 January
2019, Shindell et al., 2011).
The supplement related to this article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019-supplement.
YG came up with the original idea of investigating the impact
of climate and emission on atmospheric deposition. YG and KL designed the
analysis method. JZ conducted all the analyses. LRL, HL, JF, XY and HG helped in the discussion of the results.
JFL helped in the interpretation and
understanding of ACCMIP data. TN helped in the interpretation of the MIROC-CHEM
model. All the authors contributed to the writing of the
paper.
The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by grants from the National Key
Project of MOST (2017YFC1404101), Shandong Provincial Natural Science
Foundation, China (ZR2017MD026), and National Natural Science Foundation of
China (41705124, 41822505 and 91544110). PNNL is operated for DOE by the Battelle
Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. Edited by: Alex B. Guenther Reviewed by: three
anonymous referees
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