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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Atmos. Chem. Phys.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-19-767-2019</article-id><title-group><article-title>Dynamically controlled ozone decline in the tropical mid-stratosphere observed by SCIAMACHY</article-title><alt-title>Ozone decline in the tropical mid-stratosphere</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Ozone decline in the tropical mid-stratosphere}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{E.~Galytska et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2 aff6">
          <name><surname>Galytska</surname><given-names>Evgenia</given-names></name>
          <email>egalytska@iup.physik.uni-bremen.de</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6575-1559</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Rozanov</surname><given-names>Alexey</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3 aff4">
          <name><surname>Chipperfield</surname><given-names>Martyn P.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6803-4149</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Dhomse</surname><given-names>Sandip. S.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-5383</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Weber</surname><given-names>Mark</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8217-5450</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Arosio</surname><given-names>Carlo</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3 aff5">
          <name><surname>Feng</surname><given-names>Wuhu</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9907-9120</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Burrows</surname><given-names>John P.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1547-8130</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen,
Germany</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Taras
Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>School of
Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>National
Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds,
Leeds, UK</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff6"><label>*</label><institution>
      <?xmltex \bgroup\itshape?>Invited contribution by Evgenia Galytska, recipient of the EGU Atmospheric Sciences <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>Outstanding Student Poster and PICO Award 2018.<?xmltex \egroup?>
    </institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Evgenia Galytska (egalytska@iup.physik.uni-bremen.de)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>22</day><month>January</month><year>2019</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>19</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>767</fpage><lpage>783</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>26</day><month>July</month><year>2018</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>23</day><month>August</month><year>2018</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>7</day><month>December</month><year>2018</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>19</day><month>December</month><year>2018</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        
        
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019.html">This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract>
    <p id="d1e184">Despite the recently reported beginning of a recovery in global stratospheric
ozone (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), an unexpected <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decline in the tropical
mid-stratosphere (around 30–35 km altitude) was observed in satellite
measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. We use SCanning
Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY)
measurements for the period 2004–2012 to confirm the significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
decline. The SCIAMACHY observations show that the decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
accompanied by an increase in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
    <p id="d1e242">To reveal the causes of these observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes, we
performed simulations with the TOMCAT 3-D chemistry-transport model (CTM)
using different chemical and dynamical forcings. For the 2004–2012 time
period, the TOMCAT simulations reproduce the SCIAMACHY-observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
decrease and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increase in the tropical mid-stratosphere. The
simulations suggest that the positive changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (around
7 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) are due to similar positive changes in reactive odd
nitrogen (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which are a result of a longer residence
time of the source gas <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and increased production via
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> + O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D). The model simulations show a negative change of
10 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> that is most likely due to variations
in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC). Interestingly,
modelled annual mean “age of air” (AoA) does not show any significant
changes in transport in the tropical mid-stratosphere during 2004–2012.</p>
    <p id="d1e385">However, further analysis of model results demonstrates significant seasonal variations.
During the autumn months (September–October) there are positive AoA changes that imply
transport slowdown and a longer residence time of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> allowing for more
conversion to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which enhances <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss. During winter months
(January–February) there are negative AoA changes, indicating faster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
transport and less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production. Although the variations in AoA over a
year result in a statistically insignificant linear change, non-linearities in the
chemistry–transport interactions lead to a statistically significant negative
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> change.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e468">Stratospheric ozone (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is one of the most important
components of the atmosphere. It absorbs ultraviolet solar radiation, which is harmful to
plants, animals, and humans, and thereby plays a key role in determining the thermal
structure and dynamics of the stratosphere <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx47" id="paren.1"/>. The amount of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the stratosphere is controlled by a balance between photochemical
production and loss mechanisms. However, the atmospheric dynamics play an important role
in determining the conditions at which<?pagebreak page768?> these photochemical and chemical reactions take.
As a result <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> global distribution and inter-annual variability are governed by
transport processes, e.g. the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC). To set the scene for our
understanding of chemical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> variations in the tropical mid-stratosphere, we
briefly discuss the mechanism of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production and loss via catalytic
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> NO <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) cycle and the role
of nitrous oxide (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e591">Stratospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is essentially formed in the regions where solar ultraviolet
electromagnetic radiation is present <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx9" id="paren.2"/>. The first mechanism proposed to
explain its formation and loss is known as the Chapman cycle. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is formed via
photodissociation of molecular oxygen (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) mostly within the so-called Herzberg
continuum <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx40" id="paren.3"><named-content content-type="pre">200–242 nm;</named-content></xref>. Absorption by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at shorter
wavelengths (e.g. Schumann–Runge bands, 175–200 nm) occurs at higher altitudes,
i.e. in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. In the mid-stratosphere the ultraviolet
sunlight breaks apart an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> molecule to produce two oxygen (O) atoms:
          <disp-formula id="R1" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M40" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ν</mml:mi><mml:mover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">⟶</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">λ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">242</mml:mn><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">nm</mml:mi><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        Then each O atom combines with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to produce <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:
          <disp-formula id="R2" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M43" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">M</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">M</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        where M represents a third body. Reactions (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R1"/>) and (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R2"/>) continually occur
whenever shortwave ultraviolet radiation is present in the stratosphere. As a
consequence, the strongest <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production takes place in the tropical
mid-stratosphere. Then <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is photolysed with lower-energy photons in the Hartley
bands (242–310 nm) to produce excited singlet oxygen (O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D)) or in the Huggins band
(310–400 nm) to produce ground-state atomic oxygen O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>P): 

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" specific-use="align" content-type="subnumberedsingle reaction"><mml:math id="M48" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1.1"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ν</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">⟶</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">242</mml:mn><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">λ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">310</mml:mn><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">nm</mml:mi><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mover><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">D</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1.2"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">⟶</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">310</mml:mn><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">λ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">400</mml:mn><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">nm</mml:mi><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mover><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">P</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

          An important aspect of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> photochemistry is that it is the major
source of O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) in the stratosphere Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1.1"/>). O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) is rapidly quenched
to the electronic ground state by collision with any third-body molecule, most likely
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="paren.4"><named-content content-type="pre">O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) + M <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mo>→</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> O + M;</named-content></xref>. The final Chapman
cycle reaction of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and atomic oxygen Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R3"/>) is relatively slow and
does not cause significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss, since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> recombines with an O atom to
regenerate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> via Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R2"/>).
          <disp-formula id="R3" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M60" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        Importantly, other chemical cycles can catalyse this reaction.</p>
      <p id="d1e1086">The distribution of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the stratosphere is illustrated in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>.
Panel (a) shows zonally averaged climatological mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> volume mixing ratio (vmr)
as a function of latitude in the stratosphere from SCIAMACHY measurements (further
described in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS1"/>) during boreal winters (December–January–February,
DJF) 2004–2012. We chose Northern Hemisphere winter months to clearly represent the
hemispheric distributions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>b shows the mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
vertical profile for the tropical region, averaged for the same period as in panel a. The
dashed rectangles indicate the region of the tropical (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N)
mid-stratosphere (30–35 km) investigated in this study.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1"><caption><p id="d1e1160">SCIAMACHY zonally averaged climatological mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppmV) for
<bold>(a)</bold> latitude–altitude distribution and <bold>(b)</bold> profile during DJFs
2004–2012. The dashed rectangles indicate the region of tropical mid-stratosphere
investigated in this paper.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f01.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e1187">Significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> destruction occurs through reaction with oxides of
nitrogen (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, whose major source is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>),
hydrogen (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> = OH, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, whose major sources are
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CH</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), chlorine (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ClO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, whose major
sources are chlorofluorocarbons, known as CFCs, and other halocarbons), and
bromine (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BrO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, whose major sources are methyl bromide and
halons). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="text.5"/> showed that the relative mean global <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
loss in the upper and lower stratosphere is dominated by the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ClO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BrO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry, and
in the middle stratosphere by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> cycle, which is
largest near the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> maximum. Consequently, significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
loss in the tropical mid-stratosphere is predominantly determined by
catalytic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> destruction <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16" id="paren.6"/>, where NO
rapidly reacts with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to produce <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:
          <disp-formula id="R4" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M86" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> molecules can then react with (ground state) oxygen atoms:
          <disp-formula id="R5" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M88" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        In the middle stratosphere, the exchange time between NO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in
Reactions (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R4"/>) and (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R5"/>) is approximately 1 min during daytime.</p>
      <?pagebreak page769?><p id="d1e1504">The primary source of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the stratosphere is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx35" id="paren.7"/>, which is emitted at the surface by anthropogenic and microbial
processes in the ocean and soils <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.8"/>. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is an important
greenhouse gas, inert in the troposphere, and is transported into the tropical
stratosphere via the upwelling branch of the BDC. Around 90 % of all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
photolysed in the stratosphere by UV radiation between 180–230 nm <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx36" id="paren.9"/>
with the maximum absorption being in the region between 180 and 190 nm
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="paren.10"/>:
          <disp-formula id="R6" content-type="numbered reaction"><mml:math id="M94" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ν</mml:mi><mml:mover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">⟶</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">λ</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">nm</mml:mi><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mover><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">D</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
        The remaining 10 % of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is removed by reaction with O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) which occurs through two channels. One of these (about 5 % of overall <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss) contributes to NO production:


              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" specific-use="align" content-type="subnumberedsingle reaction"><mml:math id="M98" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E2.1"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">D</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E2.2"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

          We emphasize here that the oxidation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> via
Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2.1"/>) is the primary source of NO (and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)
in the stratosphere, which then actively participates in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
destruction via Reactions (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R4"/>) and (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R5"/>).</p>
      <p id="d1e1781">The impact of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> on both climate change and stratospheric
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is such that it is necessary to further control its emissions.
However, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is not included for regulation in the Montreal
Protocol <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx57" id="paren.11"/>, signed in 1985 by the United Nations Vienna
Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer to limit the negative impact
of anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-depleting substances. Anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is only regulated by the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and is expected to be the dominant
contributor to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> depletion in the 21st century
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44" id="paren.12"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e1863">Due to the long global lifetime of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which exceeds 100 years
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42 bib1.bibx47 bib1.bibx43 bib1.bibx12" id="paren.13"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>, its
distribution is affected by changes in BDC. While accelerated tropical
upwelling enhances transport of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from its source towards the
stratosphere, it reduces its lifetime <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="paren.14"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. The amount
of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is then affected by a shorter <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> residence
time causing its lower production via Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2.1"/>), and as a
consequence less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss in the tropical mid-stratosphere.</p>
      <p id="d1e1940">Several publications in recent years have documented significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in
the tropical mid-stratosphere, in particular its decrease during the first decade of the
2000s <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx22 bib1.bibx21 bib1.bibx39" id="paren.15"/>. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33" id="text.16"><named-content content-type="post">Fig. 15</named-content></xref>
showed a statistically significant negative trend in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of around
2 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> to 4 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in the tropical region
(10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N) at altitudes of 30–35 km for the period 1997–2011
from the combined Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II and Global Ozone
Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) dataset. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.17"><named-content content-type="post">Fig. 8</named-content></xref>
identified a much stronger negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend of up to 18 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in
the same altitude and latitude range for the period August 2002–April 2012 from SCanning
Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) observations. In
addition, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.18"/> pointed out a possible connection of negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
trends with positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes (first presented at the Quadrennial
Ozone Symposium 2012). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21" id="text.19"/> reported negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends in the
tropics in the form of a doubled-peak structure at around 25 and 35 km from the
Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) for the period
2002–2012. However, the reasons for observed trends remained unclear, although
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21" id="text.20"/> mentioned that the changes in upwelling explain neither the observed
negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends nor their doubled-peak structure.</p>
      <p id="d1e2099">The findings of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.21"/> were the most relevant to describe observed trends
in the tropical mid-stratosphere. They showed a significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decrease at
30–35 km altitude in the tropics by using the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE;
1991–2005) and NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; 2004–2013) data. They linked the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decrease with the long-term increase in the bulk of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HNO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) species and related this to changes in
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> transport from the troposphere. In particular they showed that the decrease
in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is “likely linked to long-term variations in dynamics”. Using a 2-D
chemical dynamical model they showed that changes in the tropical upwelling could lead to
changes in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> oxidation via Reaction (R8a) and thus affect
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production. Based on these results, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.22"/> concluded
that weaker tropical upwelling could, therefore, explain the decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in
the tropical mid-stratosphere. Nevertheless, the authors did not show that such dynamical
perturbations in the BDC indeed occurred. The changes in the strength of different BDC
branches were analysed by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="text.23"/>. They used diabatic heating calculations
from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Era-Interim dataset.
They concluded that “there are strong indications that the observed trend-change in
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is primarily a consequence of a simultaneous trend-change in tropical
upwelling”. The conclusions of both <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="text.24"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.25"/> agree
with the finding of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="text.26"/> who showed that stratospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
affected by variations in transport patterns, which in turn are associated with changes
in Rossby-wave forcing.</p>
      <?pagebreak page770?><p id="d1e2273">The most recent publications with extended data records suggest that there are signs of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> recovery in the tropical mid-stratosphere. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50" id="text.27"/> showed a small
negative (2 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend by analysing merged SAGE II, European
Space Agency (ESA) Ozone Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci) and Ozone Mapping
Profiler Suite (OMPS) datasets for the period 1997–2016. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx51" id="text.28"/> analysed
seven merged datasets and concluded that there are no clear indications for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
changes in the tropics during 2000–2016. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3" id="text.29"/> highlighted that the observed
decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between 32 and 36 km is primarily due to high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values
during the 2000–2003 period and they did not report negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes during
1986–2016. Positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends in the tropical stratosphere above 10 hPa were
shown in the most recent research of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14" id="text.30"><named-content content-type="post">Fig. 3</named-content></xref> for the period
2004–2017 from MLS measurements and simulations of the TOMCAT chemistry-transport model
(CTM). While there are clear signs of recent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="paren.31"/>, full explanations of observed negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in the
tropical mid-stratosphere within the first decade of the 21st century have not been
quantified.</p>
      <p id="d1e2395">In this study we analyse changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere based on updated
SCIAMACHY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> datasets during 2004–2012, which is similar to the
period analysed by several studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx22 bib1.bibx21 bib1.bibx39" id="paren.32"/>.
However, in contrast to those studies, we combine and compare SCIAMACHY measurements with
simulations of TOMCAT, a state-of-the-art 3-D CTM. We additionally perform TOMCAT runs
with different chemical and dynamical forcings to diagnose the primary causes of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes. We also consider modelled <inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the
major component of mid-stratosphere <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> species in
our analysis. Based on modelled age-of-air (AoA) data we demonstrate seasonal changes in
the deep branch of BDC. We further explain how transport changes from month to month
affect <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry, which consequently leads to observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes.
Note that in this paper we do not refer to observed changes of chemical compounds in the
mid-stratosphere as “trends”, as the analysed time span is not long enough.
Consequently, we use the term “changes” instead.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <title>Methods and data sources</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <title>SCIAMACHY limb data</title>
      <p id="d1e2516">The ESA Environmental Satellite (Envisat) mission carried 10 sensors dedicated to Earth
observation, which were operational from the launch of the satellite in March 2002 until
it failed in April 2012, doubling the planned lifetime of 5 years. Envisat was in a
near-circular sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of around 800 km, with the
inclination of 98<inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. The SCIAMACHY instrument <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx7 bib1.bibx5" id="paren.33"/> on
board Envisat was a passive imaging spectrometer that comprised eight spectral channels
and covered a broad spectral range from 240 to 2400 nm.</p>
      <p id="d1e2531">SCIAMACHY performed spectroscopic observations of solar radiation scattered by and
transmitted through the atmosphere, as well as reflected by the Earth's surface in three
viewing modes: limb, nadir, and occultation. We use only SCIAMACHY data in limb-viewing
geometry in our study. In this case, the line of sight of the instrument follows a slant
path tangentially through the atmosphere and solar radiation is detected when it is
scattered into the field of view of the instrument. The limb geometry combines
near-global coverage with a moderately high vertical resolution of about 3 km. SCIAMACHY
scanned the Earth's limb within a tangent height range of about <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to 92 km (0 to
92 km since October 2010) in steps of about 3.3 km. The vertical instantaneous field of
view of the SCIAMACHY instrument was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.6 km, and the horizontal cross-track
instantaneous field of view was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 km at the tangent point. However, the
horizontal cross-track resolution is mainly determined by the integration time during the
horizontal scan typically resulting
in a value of about 240 km. For the SCIAMACHY limb measurements,
the global coverage was obtained within 6 days.</p>
      <p id="d1e2558"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profile data used here are from IUP (Institut für
Umweltphysik) Bremen limb retrievals, versions 3.5 and 3.1, respectively. Monthly mean
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="paren.34"/> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8" id="paren.35"/> data were gridded horizontally
into 5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> latitude <inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 15<inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> longitude and vertically into
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3.3 km altitude bins, covering the altitude range from 8.6 to 64.2 km.</p>
      <p id="d1e2643">We use both <inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data for altitudes 15–40 km. We calculate zonal
monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values as arithmetic means according to
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.36"/> “the errors of single measurements are expected to be normally
distributed and no issue with outliers is known”. Zonal monthly mean values are
typically composed of hundreds of single measurements. We chose the boundaries
60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N to circumvent gaps in SCIAMACHY sampling during polar
winters.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <title>TOMCAT model</title>
      <p id="d1e2718">We have performed a series of the experiments with the global TOMCAT offline
3-D CTM <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="paren.37"/>. The model contains a detailed description of
stratospheric chemistry including species in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Cl</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Br</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemical families. The model includes heterogeneous
reactions on sulfate aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds. The model was
forced using ECMWF ERA-Interim winds and temperatures <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx17" id="paren.38"/>.
Simulations were performed at 2.8<inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.8<inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> horizontal
resolution with 32<inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> levels ranging from the surface to about
60 km. The surface mixing ratios of long-lived source gases (e.g. CFCs,
HCFCs, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CH</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) were taken from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx57" id="text.39"/> scenario
A1. The solar cycle was included using time-varying solar flux data
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19" id="paren.40"><named-content content-type="pre">1950–2016;</named-content></xref> from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)
solar variability model, referred to as NRLSSI2 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15" id="paren.41"/>.
Stratospheric sulfate aerosol surface density (SAD) data for 1850–2014 were
obtained from <uri>ftp://iacftp.ethz.ch/pub_read/luo/CMIP6/</uri> (last access: 8
January 2019) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1 bib1.bibx20" id="paren.42"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e2865">We performed three model simulations to distinguish the dynamical and chemical influence
on the stratospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The control run (CNTL) was spun up from
1977 and integrated until the end of 2012 including all of the processes described above.
Sensitivity simulations were initialized from the control run in 2004 and also integrated
until the end of 2012. Run fSG was the same as run CNTL but used constant tropospheric
mixing ratios of all source gases after 2004. This removes the long-term trends<?pagebreak page771?> in
composition due to source gas changes. Run fDYN was the same as CNTL but used annually
repeating meteorology from 2004. All of the simulations included an idealized
stratospheric AoA tracer that was forced using a linearly increasing tropospheric
boundary condition.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <title>Multiple linear regression</title>
      <p id="d1e2896">To assess the temporal evolution, we applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) model
similar to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.43"/> to SCIAMACHY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and TOMCAT
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
species time series for the period January 2004–April 2012. The MLR was performed for
each latitude band and altitude level and included the following proxies: the seasonal
variations (12- and 6-month terms), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a constant, and linear terms as shown in Eq. (1):

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M193" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E3"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:munderover><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mi>sin⁡</mml:mi><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">π</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">π</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><?xmltex \hack{\hspace*{3mm}}?><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>QBO</mml:mtext><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>QBO</mml:mtext><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">30</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>c</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ENSO</mml:mtext><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> stands for the ordinate intercept of the regression line and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> for its slope (linear changes). Time (as running months) is
represented by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, and varies from 1 to 100, where 1 corresponds to
January 2004 and 100 to April 2012. Terms <inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">11</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">…</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">22</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mi>c</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> are additional fitting parameters. The harmonics with
annual (12 months) and semi-annual (6 months) periods, which correspond to
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, respectively, are used to represent seasonal variations. The
combination of sine and cosine modulations adjusts the phase of the
(semi-)annual variation. At latitudes between 50 and 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N and in
the altitude range 15–26 km the cumulative eddy heat flux replaced the
harmonic fit terms, similar to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.44"/>. The eddy heat flux was
used as a proxy for the transport of stratospheric species due to variations
in planetary wave forcing <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18 bib1.bibx54" id="paren.45"/>. Here, we used
ERA-Interim eddy heat flux at 50 hPa integrated from 45 to 75<inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N
with a time lag of 2 months. QBO<inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and QBO<inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">30</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are the
equatorial winds at 10 and 30 hPa, respectively (available from
<uri>http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html</uri>,
last access: 8 January 2019). Monthly time series of equatorial winds were
smoothed by a 4-month running average. ENSO(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) represents ENSO and is based
on anomalies of the Nino 3.4 index (available from:
<uri>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/</uri>). In our regression model
ENSO is accounted for within the latitude band 20<inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–20<inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N
and at altitudes 15–25 km with a time lag of 2 months. In addition to the
above-mentioned proxies, we have calculated linear changes both with and
without a solar cycle term. The solar cycle term is represented by the
multi-instrument monthly mean Mg II index from GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55 bib1.bibx49" id="paren.46"><named-content content-type="pre">available from
<uri>http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/solar/MgII_composite.dat</uri>, last
access: 8 January 2019,</named-content></xref>. The results with and without
the solar cycle term are very similar. Therefore, we only show results from
MLR without a solar cycle term.</p>
      <p id="d1e3305">The use of noise autocorrelation does not add any information when calculating the value
of linear changes for selected monthly time series. Consequently, for reasons of
consistency, it was also ignored when determining the linear changes from the complete
time series. We used the 1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value, which is defined by a covariance matrix of
regression coefficients, as the uncertainty in observed changes. The statistical
significance of observed changes at the 95 % confidence level is met if the absolute
ratio between the trend and its uncertainty is larger than 2 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53" id="paren.47"/>. For all
chemical species, we show changes in relative units with respect to the mean value of the
whole time series, i.e. % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Changes in AoA are shown in absolute values,
i.e. years decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <title>Results and discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <title>Observed and simulated changes from SCIAMACHY and TOMCAT</title>
      <p id="d1e3354">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/> shows latitude–altitude plots of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
linear changes from SCIAMACHY measurements over the latitude range
60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N and altitude range 15–40 km during
January 2004–April 2012. Hatched areas show regions where changes are significant at the
2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level. The plot is based on zonal monthly mean values with data gridding as
described in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS1"/>. Statistically significant positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
of around 6 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> are observed at southern mid-latitudes at altitudes around
27–31 km (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a), which agree well with linear <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends from MLS
for the period 2004–2013 shown by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.48"/>. More pronounced positive
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes are seen in the tropical lower stratosphere up to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 22 km
altitude, which match well with results reported by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.49"/> and
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21" id="text.50"/>. However, the focus of our analysis remains on the region of the
tropical mid-stratosphere bounded by the dashed rectangles in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>. This is
the region where the “island” of statistically significant negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
is observed, reaching 12 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M224" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <?pagebreak page772?><p id="d1e3499">The SCIAMACHY version 3.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data (see Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS1"/>) used in this study
employs an updated retrieval approach in the visible spectral range <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="paren.51"/>
compared to older data versions. The observed negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in the tropical
mid-stratosphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>) are consistent with <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.52"/> who applied
version 2.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data during a similar period (August 2002–April 2012), using a
similar regression model. Such negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes also agree well with the
findings of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx21 bib1.bibx39" id="text.53"/>, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50" id="text.54"/>, albeit they
employed different datasets within similar, but not identical, time spans.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>b shows a strong positive change in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of around
15 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in the region of the tropical mid-stratosphere.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2"><caption><p id="d1e3591">Latitude–altitude distribution of <bold>(a)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes (% decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) from MLR applied to SCIAMACHY
measurements for the January 2004–April 2012 period. Hatched areas show changes
significant at the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level. The dashed rectangle indicates the region of the
tropical mid-stratosphere investigated in this paper.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=199.169291pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e3648">To identify possible reasons for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere,
and to check the role of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry in these
changes following suggestions by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.55"/>, we analyse data from three TOMCAT
simulations (see Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS2"/>). Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/> presents latitude–altitude
plots of the linear changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (panels a–c), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (panels d–f), and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (panels g–i) for the period January 2004–April 2012 from TOMCAT
(1) control run, CNTL – left column; (2) run with constant tropospheric mixing ratios of
source gases, fSG – middle column; and (3) run with annually repeating meteorology, fDYN
– right column. Results are shown on the native TOMCAT vertical grid. Latitude–altitude
plots of equivalent <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> linear changes from
TOMCAT are shown in Figs. S1–S2 of the Supplement. The CNTL simulation shows negative
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M243" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>a) of around
5 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>d) of around
10 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, which are similar, but somewhat smaller, than changes observed by
SCIAMACHY (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a, b). Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>g indicates a statistically
significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decrease of around 15 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in the tropical
mid-stratosphere and a pronounced hemispheric asymmetry with positive changes at southern
and negative changes at northern mid-latitudes. These changes agree well with
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends from MLS during 2004–2013 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38" id="paren.56"><named-content content-type="pre">see</named-content><named-content content-type="post">Fig. 10</named-content></xref>. Such
variations in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, a long-lived tracer with the global lifetime of around
115–120 years <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="paren.57"/>, might indicate possible changes in the deep branch of
the BDC.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e3872">Latitude–altitude distribution of <bold>(a–c)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<bold>(d–f)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <bold>(g–i)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
(% decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) from the MLR model applied to TOMCAT runs in the
January 2004–April 2012 period: CNTL <bold>(a, d, g)</bold>, fSG <bold>(b, e, h)</bold>, and
fDYN <bold>(c, f, i)</bold>. Latitude ranges from 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S to 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, and
altitude ranges from 15 to 40 km. Hatched areas show changes significant at the
2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level. The dashed rectangle indicates the region of interest in this paper.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=355.659449pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e3973">To distinguish the role of transport for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere, we show the results of the TOMCAT fSG
simulation with constant tropospheric mixing ratios of all source gases in the middle
column of Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>. The modelled changes from both runs CNTL and fSG are very
similar for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. 3a, b), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. 3d, e), and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. 3g, h). This illustrates that the observed changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere
are mostly of dynamical origin. The TOMCAT fDYN simulation, with annually repeating
meteorology, shows insignificant (slightly negative) changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>c). Both <inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>f) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>i) show statistically significant but very weak positive changes in the
tropical mid-stratosphere of around 3 % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. This indicates that the direct
impact of the chemistry on observed variations in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is rather small.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <title>Tropical mid-stratospheric correlations</title>
      <p id="d1e4144">A powerful diagnostic for identifying the impact of chemical and dynamical processes on
specific stratospheric constituents are tracer–tracer correlation plots
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx46 bib1.bibx24" id="paren.58"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/> shows correlation plots of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> versus <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> versus <inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the tropical
mid-stratosphere from the TOMCAT run CNTL. The colour coding classifies data according to
altitude: 31 km (orange), 32 km (magenta), 33.5 km (sky blue), and 35 km (green). The
panels show monthly mean data over the period January 2004–April 2012. Due to its long
lifetime, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M275" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values reflect transport patterns: low <inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values
indicate older air and high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values younger air. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>a shows
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anti-correlation that results from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemical
loss, which produces <inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and is thus coupled to dynamical changes. Namely, when
the upwelling is accelerated, more <inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is transported from lower altitudes, but
less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (and therefore <inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is formed as the residence time of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decreases. Consequently, there is less time to produce <inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> via
Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2.1"/>). In contrast, with slower upwelling less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
transported to the mid-stratosphere, but its residence time is longer, which allows for
increased <inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production. Figure  <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>a, clearly shows the larger
abundance of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observed at 31 km (160–200 ppbV) than at 35 km
(50–140 ppbV). This indicates the time needed to transport air masses between the two
altitudes, which in turn favours larger <inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production at 35 km of around
4.5–5.5 ppbV in comparison to 3–4.5 ppbV at 31 km. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> produced from the
oxidation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> impacts <inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>b shows the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> correlation. There is a linear relation, as the lifetime of
both tracers in this region is greater than their vertical transport timescales
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx4" id="paren.59"/>. Both panels of Fig. <?pagebreak page773?><xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/> show quite compact correlations
between the tracers, which indicate well mixed air masses <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="paren.60"/>.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e4478">Scatter plots of monthly mean <bold>(a)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> versus
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> versus <inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the tropical
mid-stratosphere during January 2004–April 2012 from TOMCAT simulation CNTL.
Colour coding classifies data according to altitude: 31 km (orange), 32 km
(magenta), 33.5 km (sky blue), and 35 km (green).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e4542">To obtain more detailed information about tracer distributions, in particular on the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> impact on the observed negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> change, we present
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scatter plots at 31.5 km in the tropics in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/> from
SCIAMACHY measurements and TOMCAT simulations CNTL, fSG, and fDYN. Data points indicate
zonal monthly mean values during January 2004–April 2012. Here TOMCAT results are
interpolated to the SCIAMACHY vertical grid. Solid lines in each panel specify linear
fits to corresponding data points and represent the chemical link between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. All panels of Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/> show the expected negative correlation of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The SCIAMACHY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> distribution
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>a) agrees well with the TOMCAT CNTL simulation (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>b),
although modelled <inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are lower in comparison with measurements.</p>
      <?pagebreak page774?><p id="d1e4687">To further investigate the impact of dynamics on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes,
Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>c shows a combined scatter plot from both simulations (CNTL and fSG). In
conditions of unchanged tropospheric mixing ratios of source gases (fSG, orange points),
the data scatter and slopes do not change significantly in comparison with the control
simulation (CNTL, green points). Both simulations are performed with the same dynamical
forcing. In contrast, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scatter from CNTL and fDYN TOMCAT
simulations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>d) differ significantly. In the absence of dynamical changes
(red points) the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scatter plots do not show such large
variability as in run CNTL (green points), which highlights the impact of transport and
indicates different tracer distributions with and without dynamical changes. However, the
slopes are similar in both simulations, which represents the chemical impact of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Therefore, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
scatter plots from the model calculations confirm the notion that observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
changes are linked to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry in the tropical mid-stratosphere.
Also, it follows from the different TOMCAT simulations that these chemical changes on
shorter timescales are ultimately driven by dynamical variations.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e4831"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scatter plots in the tropical stratosphere at an
altitude of 31.5 km from <bold>(a)</bold> SCIAMACHY and TOMCAT simulations
<bold>(b)</bold> CNTL, <bold>(c)</bold> CNTL and fSG, and <bold>(d)</bold> CNTL and fDYN. Colour
coding denotes data source: SCIAMACHY (dark blue), TOMCAT: CNTL (green), fSG (orange),
and fDYN (red). Solid lines specify linear fits to the data points.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e4875">Correlation heat map for monthly means of AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, NO, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M327" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from TOMCAT CNTL run for the period January 2004–April 2012 in the
tropical mid-stratosphere. Repeated information was excluded from the heat map.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e4919">Recognizing the tight relationships within the tropical mid-stratosphere
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry, seen in Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/> and
<xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>, we calculated Pearson correlation coefficients between the chemical species
as well as with the dynamical AoA tracer. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/> shows the correlation heat
map for AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, NO, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for the period
January 2004–April 2012 in this region. The correlations between the monthly means of
the chemical species <inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, NO, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are very high and in
all cases exceed 0.9, which is consistent with the tracer–tracer correlations shown in
Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>a, b and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>a–d. The overall high correlation as shown in the
heat map can be explained by the overall regulation of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> abundance in the
tropical mid-stratosphere. Ozone is mainly destroyed by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this
altitude region and the strong chemical link between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is confirmed by the high anti-correlation (0.92). A strong anti-correlation is expected
between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as these are both long-lived tracers in
the mid-lower stratosphere and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the source of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. As
the amount of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> also scales with the amount of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, a
fairly strong correlation (0.9) exists between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, even in the
mid-stratosphere where the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> photochemical lifetime becomes short.</p>
      <p id="d1e5190">The correlation of AoA with all tracers is rather moderate (with absolute values within
the range of 0.5–0.71), as transport (or AoA) does not directly control NO, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this region. The anti-correlation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and AoA is also
moderate (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.71</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which is unexpected as the major source of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
tropical mid-stratosphere is the upwelling from lower altitudes (see Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S1"/>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <?xmltex \opttitle{{$\protect\chem{N_{{2}}O}$} -- age of air relationship}?><title><inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> – age of air relationship</title>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e5275">Average profiles of <bold>(a)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppbV),
<bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss (ppbV year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), and
<bold>(c)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> lifetime (years) from TOMCAT for the period
2004–2012. Colour coding in panel <bold>(b)</bold> indicates the source of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss: total loss – green; loss via photolysis
Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R6"/>) – orange; loss via oxidation with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
production Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2.1"/>) – turquoise; loss via oxidation without
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production Reaction (R8b) – magenta.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e5388">To improve our understanding of the AoA–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M364" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> relation, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/> shows
profiles of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M365" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M366" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M367" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> lifetime from the TOMCAT
CNTL run, averaged over the period 2004–2012. A significant decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M368" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations with altitude is seen in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>a, in particular a sharp decrease
around 20 km altitude. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>b shows that the largest (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M369" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 90 %)
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M370" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss is caused by photolysis Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="R6"/>, orange), which starts to
become important at around 20 km altitude. About 5–10 % of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M371" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reacts with
O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M372" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) above 26 km, where the concentration of O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M373" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) starts slowly increasing due
to the Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1.1"/>). As the consequence of these <inline-formula><mml:math id="M374" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss reactions,
its average lifetime (shown in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>c), calculated as the ratio of mean
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M375" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration and its total loss is also strongly altitude dependent. It
varies from more than 100 years at 20 km to less than 1 year at 35 km. In particular,
in the altitude range 30–35 km the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M376" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> lifetime varies by a factor of 2
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>c).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e5565">Latitude–altitude AoA <bold>(a)</bold> the zonally averaged distribution (years),
<bold>(b)</bold> the linear changes (years decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M377" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) from the MLR model applied to the
TOMCAT CNTL simulation during January 2004–April 2012: latitude range is from
60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M378" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S to 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M379" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, altitude range is from 15 to 40 km. The dashed
rectangle indicates the region of interest in the tropical mid-stratosphere. The hatched
areas in <bold>(b)</bold> show changes significant at the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M380" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e5622">To investigate the link between transport and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M381" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, we show zonally averaged
climatological mean AoA (years, in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>a) and AoA linear changes
(years decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M382" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b) as a function of latitude and altitude from the
TOMCAT CNTL simulation during January 2004–April 2012. The dashed rectangle indicates
the region of interest. Hatched areas in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b show regions where changes are
significant at the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M383" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level. According to Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>a the average lifetime
of air is around 3.5 years in the tropical mid-stratosphere, and according to
Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b there are no statistically significant changes in AoA in the same
region. The absence of statistically<?pagebreak page775?> significant AoA changes here is, on the one hand, in
agreement with <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="text.61"/> who demonstrated that the deep branch of BDC does not
show significant changes. On the other hand, it is apparently inconsistent with
(1) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M384" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> negative changes identified in the region of interest
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>g) and (2) conclusions of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.62"/> who suggested a decrease
in upwelling speed as a possible reason for the observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M385" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decline at 10 hPa
(around 30–35 km altitude).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e5703">Latitude–altitude distribution of AoA changes (years decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M386" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) from MLR
model based on the TOMCAT CNTL simulation during January 2004–April 2012 for
<bold>(a)</bold> DJF, <bold>(b)</bold> MAM, <bold>(c)</bold> JJA, <bold>(d)</bold> SON: latitude range
from 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M387" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S to 60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M388" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, altitude range from 15 to 40 km. Hatched areas
show changes significant at the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M389" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level. The dashed rectangle indicates the
region of the tropical mid-stratosphere investigated in this paper.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e5762">To further improve our understanding of AoA changes, we show in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/> a
seasonal analysis of AoA linear changes (years decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M390" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) from the MLR model during
January 2004–April 2012 based on TOMCAT CNTL simulation for DJF (panel a),
March–April–May (MAM, panel b), June–July–August (JJA, panel c), and
September–October–November (SON, panel d). Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/> shows that in the
tropical mid-stratosphere, AoA changes vary significantly during seasons: AoA decreases
during DJF and MAM (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>a, b) and increases during SON (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>d).
During JJA (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>c) no statistically significant changes in AoA in tropical
mid-stratosphere were identified. The seasonality in AoA changes in the tropical
mid-stratosphere leads to insignificant changes when averaged over the entire year (seen
in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b). Another interesting pattern shown in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b is the
clear asymmetry between the hemispheres, with negative AoA changes in the southern and
positive AoA changes in the northern hemispheres. This asymmetry is consistent with the
results presented in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/> for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M391" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>g, h) and in agreement with <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.63"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23" id="text.64"/>. The
hemispheric asymmetry, however, remains unchanged within all seasons
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>a–c).</p>
      <p id="d1e5818">From the above, the major resulting question is the following. How are <inline-formula><mml:math id="M392" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
transport (via AoA) connected? To answer this, we analyse <inline-formula><mml:math id="M393" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AoA correlation
coefficients as a function of month (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>) at altitudes of 32, 33, and
35 km. To overcome any hemispheric dependencies, we split the tropics into southern
(10–1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M394" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S) and northern (1–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M395" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N) regions. Correlation coefficients
were calculated on the native TOMCAT grid. Horizontal dashed lines indicate an arbitrary
threshold of moderate correlation, which is represented by the value of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M396" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e5880"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M397" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AoA anti-correlation as a function of month averaged for the
period January 2004–April 2012 for <bold>(a)</bold> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M398" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M399" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N,
<bold>(b)</bold> 10–1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M400" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S, and <bold>(c)</bold> 1–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M401" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N. Colour coding
indicates altitude: 32 km (orange), 33 km (magenta), and 35 km (cyan). The dashed
horizontal lines indicate an arbitrary threshold of moderate correlation, which was
selected to be the value of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M402" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f10.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?pagebreak page776?><p id="d1e5958">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a shows that in the tropical region (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M403" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M404" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N)
the AoA–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M405" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anti-correlation is very low during December–March. During the
other months of the year, it is moderate and reaches maximum values (around 0.9) during
late Northern Hemisphere summer (August) and autumn (September, October) months. Very
similar seasonal behaviour is also observed in the tropical region of the Southern
Hemisphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>b) with the minimum correlation occurring during
December–March (Southern Hemisphere summer) and maximum during May–October (Southern
Hemisphere winter). In contrast, in the tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere
(Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>c) a significant decrease in AoA–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M406" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anti-correlation is
observed during summer months (June–July). Similar seasonal variations in
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M407" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AoA anti-correlation are observed in narrower latitude bands
(4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M408" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S–4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M409" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N), which are shown in Fig. S3. The common characteristic of
seasonal changes in AoA–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M410" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is that a significant decrease in the
anti-correlation is observed during local summer in each hemisphere. This is the period
when the strength of the BDC is the lowest <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx30" id="paren.65"><named-content content-type="post">and references therein</named-content></xref>
and no significant changes in AoA are observed. The overall correlation for inner tropics
from 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M411" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> S to 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M412" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, as shown in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a, combines the
behaviour of both hemispheres.</p>
      <p id="d1e6082">With knowledge of the existence of strong seasonal dependencies in AoA variability, and
therefore in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M413" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, we have analysed the AoA–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M414" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> relation as a
function of month, averaged for the period January 2004–April 2012. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F11"/>
shows <inline-formula><mml:math id="M415" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mixing ratio and AoA averaged over January 2004–April 2012 as a
function of month and altitude. The matching of the colour and contour isolines is
pronounced, confirming a direct link between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M416" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and AoA. Furthermore, as
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M417" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is transported from the troposphere, its concentrations decrease with
altitude (see also Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S1"/>). In the lower stratosphere (15–20 km) the
seasonal variations in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M418" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and AoA exist, but are not as pronounced as in the
mid-stratosphere (30–35 km). Moreover, the seasonal variations in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M419" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are
larger than the seasonal variations in AoA, so the correlation breaks down (as seen from
Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>). There are two distinct seasonal features seen in the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M420" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AoA distribution in the mid-stratosphere, which increase at a given
altitude during January–March and September–November. During these periods, AoA becomes
lower in comparison with the rest of the year (indicating younger air) and therefore more
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M421" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is transported to these altitudes.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F11"><caption><p id="d1e6212">Annual cycle of monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M422" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppbV, contours, 15 ppbV interval)
and AoA (years, colours, 0.2-year interval) as a function of altitude from TOMCAT run
CNTL in the tropical region, averaged over the period January 2004–April 2012.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f11.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<?pagebreak page777?><sec id="Ch1.S3.SS4">
  <title>Observed changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere</title>
      <?pagebreak page778?><p id="d1e6240">Figures <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F11"/> show the seasonal variations in AoA and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M423" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
in the tropical mid-stratosphere. To further investigate the possible chemical impact on
other species, we analysed linear changes in AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M424" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M425" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M426" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from TOMCAT run CNTL and SCIAMACHY measurements for each calendar month (see
Figs. S4–S7). TOMCAT run CNTL in general shows lower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M427" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M428" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations compared to SCIAMACHY measurements as discussed earlier. The
underestimation of modelled <inline-formula><mml:math id="M429" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M430" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is also evident when comparing
Fig. 5a and b, but the slope of the modelled anti-correlation regression line agrees very
well with that of the SCIAMACHY observations. The reason for these biases between model
and measurements is not clear. However, if the model <inline-formula><mml:math id="M431" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increases then
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M432" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> will decrease even further (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>). Therefore, it is unlikely that
transport errors are the cause. Either the model underestimates the production of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M433" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M434" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> photolysis in this region, or there are uncertainties in the
model <inline-formula><mml:math id="M435" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry, which means the impact of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M436" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M437" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is less than modelled. The latter uncertainties would then be associated with the
reactions <inline-formula><mml:math id="M438" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M439" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> photolysis.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F12" specific-use="star"><caption><p id="d1e6460">Linear changes in AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M440" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M441" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M442" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> minus QBO
effect averaged over <bold>(a–d)</bold> Februaries 2004–2012 and <bold>(e–h)</bold> Septembers
2004–2011 in the tropical stratosphere between 30 and 35 km altitude. Colour coding
indicates the data source: TOMCAT CNTL simulation (green) and SCIAMACHY measurements
(dark blue). Colour-coded trend values and their errors (in % decade<inline-formula><mml:math id="M443" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) are shown
in each panel. Solid lines indicate statistically significant linear changes at the
2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M444" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> level, dashed lines indicate statistically insignificant changes.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/767/2019/acp-19-767-2019-f12.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e6530">The upper panels of Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/> show linear changes in February AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M445" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M446" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M447" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from TOMCAT CNTL run (green) and SCIAMACHY measurements (dark
blue). Solid lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/> indicate statistically significant linear changes
(2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M448" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>), while dashed lines indicate statistically insignificant gradients or linear
changes. The TOMCAT results yield a February decrease in AoA with time and a small
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M449" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> recovery. Similar results from TOMCAT are calculated for January (Fig. S4). In
particular, the faster upwelling as indicated by the decrease in AoA (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>a)
results in more intense <inline-formula><mml:math id="M450" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> transport. Consequently, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M451" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increases
with time (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>b) while <inline-formula><mml:math id="M452" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decreases (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>c) due to the
shorter residence time of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M453" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, i.e. there is less time to produce
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M454" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> species via the O(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M455" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D) Reaction (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2.1"/>). Finally, a small
increase in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M456" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is observed in the tropical mid-stratosphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>d).
SCIAMACHY measurements show statistically insignificant changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M457" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M458" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during Januaries and Februaries (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>c, d, S4). Contrary to the
TOMCAT simulations, SCIAMACHY measurements do not show any statistically significant
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M459" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decrease or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M460" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increase when analysing changes for any particular
calendar month. From September to February, the gradient of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M461" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> time series
increases, becoming more positive for both SCIAMACHY and TOMCAT data, resulting for
February in small statistically insignificant negative gradients for SCIAMACHY
observations and small but statistically significant positive gradients for TOMCAT.
Similarly for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M462" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mixing ratios, from September to February the gradients
decrease, i.e. they become more positive for both SCIAMACHY and TOMCAT results. The
SCIAMACHY data show larger errors in gradients of the time series for individual months,
than those of the TOMCAT model. This results from the stronger oscillating structure in
the SCIAMACHY time series. The reasons for the observed oscillations and their strength
are not yet unambiguously identified and are under investigation.</p>
      <p id="d1e6753">The lower panels of Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/> show the changes in September AoA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M463" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M464" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M465" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The linear change or gradients are opposite to those of the
winter months shown in the upper panels. October shows a similar behaviour to that of
September (see Fig. S7). Positive AoA changes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>e) indicate a significant
transport slowdown or additional mixing of air. As a result, there is less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M466" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
transported from the troposphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>f) and consequently more <inline-formula><mml:math id="M467" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is photolytically destroyed. The residence time in the tropical mid-stratosphere becomes
longer, producing more <inline-formula><mml:math id="M468" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>g) which leads to more effective
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M469" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> destruction (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>h). SCIAMACHY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M470" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M471" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
agree well with the model results in September and October (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>g, h and
S7).</p>
      <p id="d1e6876">The negative AoA gradients for the 2004–2012 period during the boreal winter months
(January and February) and positive AoA gradients during the boreal autumn months
(September and October) cancel, i.e. there is no statistically significant linear change
or gradient in the annual mean AoA (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>b). In contrast, the monthly
gradients over the same periods for the chemical species <inline-formula><mml:math id="M472" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M473" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; and,
as a result of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M474" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ozone catalytic destruction cycle, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M475" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> do
not cancel in the annual means. This effect is primarily attributed to the non-linear
relationship between AoA and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M476" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. That implies that, for example, the slowdown
in tropical upwelling would indicate (1) slower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M477" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> transport from lower
altitudes, which would lead to a decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M478" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and (2) destruction of more
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M479" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by photolysis (Reaction R7, around 90 %) and O<inline-formula><mml:math id="M480" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>D (Reactions R8a and
R8b, around 10 %), as the residence time of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M481" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this region becomes
longer. In contrast, the speed-up in tropical upwelling would mean that more
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M482" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is transported from the lower altitudes, and its residence time is shorter.
This leads to lower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M483" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> destruction via photochemistry. The amounts of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M484" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M485" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are chemically linked to that of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M486" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Overall, the
changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M487" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M488" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are dependent on both the amount of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M489" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
transported to the stratosphere and its residence time.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4" sec-type="conclusions">
  <title>Summary</title>
      <?pagebreak page779?><p id="d1e7107">We have analysed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M490" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes in the tropical mid-stratosphere during
January 2004–April 2012 as observed by SCIAMACHY and simulated by the TOMCAT CTM. We
find that the model, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, captures well the observed linear
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M491" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes within the analysed period. Using a set of TOMCAT simulations with
different dynamical and chemical forcings we showed that the decline in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M492" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
ultimately dynamically controlled and occurs due to increases in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M493" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which then
chemically removes <inline-formula><mml:math id="M494" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M495" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increases are due to a longer residence
time of its main source <inline-formula><mml:math id="M496" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is long-lived so changes in its abundance
indicate variations in the tropical upwelling. These results are in agreement with
findings of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.66"/>. To further investigate whether there was a decrease in
tropical upwelling we analysed the AoA from the TOMCAT model. However, the AoA
simulations did not show any significant annual mean changes in the tropical
mid-stratosphere, in apparent contradiction with conclusions from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.67"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e7196">With the knowledge of dynamically driven <inline-formula><mml:math id="M497" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M498" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M499" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes
but no significant changes in mean AoA, we performed a detailed analysis of linear
changes for each month separately within the period January 2004–April 2012. We find
that during boreal autumn months, i.e. September and October in the north, there is a
significant transport slowdown or additional air mixing that corresponds to positive
changes in AoA. These positive changes cause longer residence time of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M500" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
leading to increased <inline-formula><mml:math id="M501" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> production and stronger <inline-formula><mml:math id="M502" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> loss.
SCIAMACHY and TOMCAT <inline-formula><mml:math id="M503" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M504" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes are consistent in that regard. In
contrast, we find that during boreal winter months, i.e. January and February, the AoA
simulations show a transport speed-up. This decreases the residence time of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M505" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, so less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M506" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is produced and consequently less <inline-formula><mml:math id="M507" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is destroyed. While the TOMCAT model shows significant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M508" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decrease and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M509" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increase, the SCIAMACHY changes are not significant during these winter
months. This is associated with larger uncertainties in the MLR applied to the satellite
data.</p>
      <p id="d1e7350">Starting from the seasonal variation in AoA changes and its impact on annual mean trends
in the tropical mid-stratosphere as presented in this paper, some questions still remain
and should be the subject of further studies. Is the shift of subtropical transport
barriers, as suggested by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21" id="text.68"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52" id="text.69"/>, linked to the
seasonal AoA changes observed here? Or is this a result of the different behaviour of the
shallow and deep branches of the BDC, i.e. hiatus in the acceleration of the shallow
branch, strengthening of the transition branch, and no significant changes in the deep
branch <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="paren.70"/>? The cooling in the eastern Pacific <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx37" id="paren.71"/> could
also affect <inline-formula><mml:math id="M510" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> changes via upwelling, although our analysis of sea surface
temperatures (not shown here) did not show significant monthly variations. Another
plausible explanation of<?pagebreak page780?> changes in the transport regime could be from planetary wave
forcing <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="paren.72"/>, as we find that a significant decrease in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M511" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AoA
correlations occurs during local summers, when the wave activity and therefore the
strength of the upwelling is the lowest. In particular, the impact of variations in the
wave activity on seasonal build up of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M512" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was also described by
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="text.73"/>. However, all of these possible explanations require additional
investigation to decide which processes dominate.</p>
      <p id="d1e7407">Overall, the non-linear relation of AoA and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M513" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">N</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and their month-to-month
changes presented in this paper explain well the observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M514" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decline in the
tropical mid-stratosphere. With the application of a detailed CTM, we are able not only
to confirm the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M515" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decline but also describe chemical impacts and define the role
of dynamics on the observed changes. Having identified the impact of a seasonal
dependency of the upwelling speed on tropical mid-stratospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M516" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this study,
a better understanding of the possible drivers of this behaviour is now required.
However, the CTM with its specified meteorology cannot be used to determine the main
drivers of the dynamical changes. Consequently, the application of interactive dynamical
models is needed. The interpretation of the observed changes will give us an
understanding of whether <inline-formula><mml:math id="M517" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decline in the tropical mid-stratosphere is part of
natural variability, human impact, or a complex interaction of both factors.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability">

      <p id="d1e7472">SCIAMACHY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M518" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M519" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data are available
after registration at <uri>http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/scia-arc/</uri>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx45" id="paren.74"/>. Results of TOMCAT simulations are available upon request
from the authors. QBO equatorial winds at 10 and 30 hPa were taken from
<uri>http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html</uri>
(<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx32" id="altparen.75"/>). The anomalies of the Nino 3.4 index were downloaded
from <uri>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/</uri> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41" id="altparen.76"/>).
Data of the Mg II index from GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2 were taken from
<uri>http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/UVSAT/Datasets/mgii</uri>
(<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx56" id="altparen.77"/>).</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e7522">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-767-2019-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-767-2019-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution">

      <p id="d1e7531">EG performed the trend analyses, was the lead author of the
manuscript, and prepared the figures. All co-authors commented on the initial
and revised drafts of the manuscripts. AR supervised and guided the
computation of the trends, provided SCIAMACHY datasets, and expertise on data
usage. MPC and SSD designed and performed the TOMCAT runs, contributed to the
data analysis, and scientific interpretation of the results. MW contributed
to the trend analysis and the scientific interpretation of the results. CA
provided help with trend analysis. WF provided support for the TOMCAT
simulations. JPB initiated and coordinated the study, contributed to the data
analysis, the scientific outcomes, and preparation of the manuscript.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests">

      <p id="d1e7537">The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e7543">This research has been partly funded by the University and State of Bremen,
by the Postgraduate International Programme in Physics and Electrical
Engineering (PIP) of the University of Bremen, by the project SHARP-II-OCF,
and by a “BremenIDEA out” scholarship, promoted by the German Academic
Exchange Service (DAAD) and funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and
Research (BMBF). This research is also in part a preparatory contribution to
the German BMBF ROMIC II project and the DFG Vol<italic>Impact</italic> Research
Unit. The model simulations were performed on the UK national Archer and
Leeds ARC HPC facilities. MPC is supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Merit
Award. The authors thank Amanda Maycock and Andreas Chrysanthou for comments
on early stages of this research. The data presented were partially obtained
using the German High Performance Computer Center North (HLRN) service, whose
support is gratefully acknowledged.<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?><?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Edited by:
Martin Dameris<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Reviewed by: two anonymous referees</p></ack><ref-list>
    <title>References</title>

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<abstract-html><p>Despite the recently reported beginning of a recovery in global stratospheric
ozone (O<sub>3</sub>), an unexpected O<sub>3</sub> decline in the tropical
mid-stratosphere (around 30–35&thinsp;km altitude) was observed in satellite
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decline. The SCIAMACHY observations show that the decrease in O<sub>3</sub> is
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simulations suggest that the positive changes in NO<sub>2</sub> (around
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nitrogen (NO<sub><i>y</i></sub>), which are a result of a longer residence
time of the source gas N<sub>2</sub>O and increased production via
N<sub>2</sub>O&thinsp;+&thinsp;O(<sup>1</sup>D). The model simulations show a negative change of
10&thinsp;%&thinsp;decade<sup>−1</sup> in N<sub>2</sub>O that is most likely due to variations
in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC). Interestingly,
modelled annual mean <q>age of air</q> (AoA) does not show any significant
changes in transport in the tropical mid-stratosphere during 2004–2012.</p><p>However, further analysis of model results demonstrates significant seasonal variations.
During the autumn months (September–October) there are positive AoA changes that imply
transport slowdown and a longer residence time of N<sub>2</sub>O allowing for more
conversion to NO<sub><i>y</i></sub>, which enhances O<sub>3</sub> loss. During winter months
(January–February) there are negative AoA changes, indicating faster N<sub>2</sub>O
transport and less NO<sub><i>y</i></sub> production. Although the variations in AoA over a
year result in a statistically insignificant linear change, non-linearities in the
chemistry–transport interactions lead to a statistically significant negative
N<sub>2</sub>O change.</p></abstract-html>
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