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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Atmos. Chem. Phys.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-19-6861-2019</article-id><title-group><article-title>Effects of air pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution
improvement in China from 2005 to 2017: <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>a satellite-based perspective</article-title><alt-title>Effects of air pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution
improvement in China</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Effects of air pollution control policies on {$\chem{PM_{{2.5}}}$} pollution
improvement in China}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{Z.~Ma et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Zongwei</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0257-5695</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Riyang</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Yang</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5477-2186</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Bi</surname><given-names>Jun</given-names></name>
          <email>jbi@nju.edu.cn</email>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School
of the Environment, <?xmltex \hack{\break}?> Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment
and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), <?xmltex \hack{\break}?> Nanjing University of Information
Science and  Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health,
Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Jun Bi (jbi@nju.edu.cn)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>22</day><month>May</month><year>2019</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>19</volume>
      <issue>10</issue>
      <fpage>6861</fpage><lpage>6877</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>13</day><month>November</month><year>2018</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>23</day><month>November</month><year>2018</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>27</day><month>April</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>29</day><month>April</month><year>2019</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2019 </copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.html">This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e149">Understanding
the effectiveness of air pollution control policies is
important for future policy making. China has implemented strict air pollution
control policies since the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP). There is still a lack
of overall evaluation of the effects of air pollution control policies on
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution improvement in China since the 11th FYP. In this
study, we aimed to assess the effects of air pollution control policies from
2005 to 2017 on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> using satellite remote sensing. We
used the satellite-derived <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 2005–2013 from one of our previous
studies. For the data of 2014–2017, we developed a two-stage statistical
model to retrieve satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data using the Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD),
assimilated meteorology, and land use data. The first stage is a
day-specific linear mixed effects (LME) model and the second stage is a generalized
additive model (GAM). Results show that the Energy Conservation and
Emissions Reduction (ECER) policy, implemented in the 11th FYP period and
focused on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions control, had co-benefits with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
reductions. The increasing trends of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution (1.88 and
3.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>  for all of China and the Jingjinji region in 2004–2007, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.005</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) were suppressed after 2007. The overall <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend for all of China was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.56</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> with marginal significance
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.053</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in the Pearl River Delta region had a
big drop (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.81</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) in 2007–2010. The
ECER policy during the 12th FYP period was basically an extension of
the 11th FYP policy. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is a kind of composite pollutant which
comprises primary particles and secondary particles such as sulfate,
nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, etc. Since the ECER policy
focused on single-pollutant control, it had shown great limitation for
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reductions. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations did not decrease from
2010 to 2013 in polluted areas (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> values of the trends were greater than
0.05). Therefore, China implemented two stricter policies: the 12th FYP on
Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key Regions (APPC-KR) in 2012, and
the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control (APPC-AP) in 2013. The
goal of air quality improvement (especially <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration
improvement) and measures for multi-pollutant control were proposed. These
policies led to dramatic decreases in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after 2013 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
for all of China in 2013–2017, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

      <?xmltex \hack{\allowdisplaybreaks}?>
<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <?pagebreak page6862?><p id="d1e535">Fine particulate matter (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, aerodynamic particulate matter with
a diameter less than 2.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m) is a major atmospheric pollutant, which
has been shown to be strongly associated with adverse health effects (e.g.,
cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality) in many
epidemiological studies  (Crouse et al., 2012; Dominici et al., 2006; Pope
et al., 2002). With the rapid economic development and industrialization in
the past decades, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution has gradually become a major
environmental issue in China   (Liu et al., 2017a). However, the
Chinese government did not focus on the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> issues until 2012.
Therefore, air pollution control policies implemented before 2012 mainly
focus on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, industrial dust, and soot emission control. The air
pollution control policies of China started to pay attention to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
since late 2012.</p>
      <p id="d1e602">Understanding the effectiveness of air pollution control policies is
important for future air pollution control in China. Several studies have
examined the historical air pollution control policies and their association
with the trends of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Jin et al.,
2016;  Chen et al., 2011;  Hu et al., 2010). Since the national <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
monitoring network was established in late 2012, few studies have evaluated
the effects of air pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations
before 2013 due to the lack of historical ground-monitoring data. Therefore,
it is difficult to understand whether the air pollution control policies had
synergistic effects on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reductions before 2012.</p>
      <p id="d1e672">In recent years, many studies have shown that satellite remote sensing
provides a powerful tool to assess the spatiotemporal trends of air
pollution for both global and regional scales  (Miyazaki et al.,
2017; Itahashi et al., 2012; Krotkov et al., 2016). Estimating ground
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> using satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data was also an
effective way to fill the spatiotemporal <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> gaps left by ground-monitoring networks  (Liu, 2013, 2014; Hoff and Christopher, 2009). There
are two major methods to estimate ground-level <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations using AOD
data, i.e., the scaling method and statistical approach  (Liu, 2014). The
scaling method uses atmospheric chemistry models to simulate the association
between AOD and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and then calculate the satellite-derived
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> using the equation <italic>Satellite-derived</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Simulated</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Simulated</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">AOD</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Satellite</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">AOD</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Liu, 2014).
Boys et al. (2014) and van Donkelaar et al. (2015)
estimated the global satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> time series using the scaling
method. Compared to the scaling method, statistical models have greater
prediction accuracy but require large amount of ground-measured <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data
to develop the models  (Liu, 2014). By taking advantage of the newly
established ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> monitoring network, we developed a two-stage
statistical model to estimate historical monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MODIS) Collection 6 Aqua AOD data in one of our previous studies   (Ma et
al., 2016). Validation results shows that this monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset
has high prediction accuracy (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.73</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). This accurate historical
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset from 2004 to 2013 allowed us to examine the effects of
pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. In this previous
study   (Ma et al., 2016), we preliminarily analyzed the effects of
Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction (ECER) policy in the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006–2010). We found an inflection point around 2008, after which
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration showed a slight decreasing trend, showing the
co-benefits of the ECER policy. From 2013 to 2017, China implemented the
Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control (APPC-AP), which focused
on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution. Currently, there is still a lack of overall
evaluation of the effects of air pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution improvement in China from 2005 to 2017.</p>
      <p id="d1e905">In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of air pollution control
policies from 2005 to 2017 on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> using satellite remote
sensing. We used the satellite-derived <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset developed in our
previous study    (Ma et al., 2016). Since this dataset was from 2004
to 2013 and data after 2014 have been lacking, we extended the dataset to
2017 in the present work. To keep consistent with our previous satellite
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset, we used the same method as described in our previous
study    (Ma et al., 2016).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Overview of air pollution control policies in China from 2005 to
2017</title>
      <p id="d1e949">During 2005 to 2017, China implemented a series of air pollution prevention and
control policies, including the 11th FYP on Environmental
Protection (2006–2010), ECER policy during the 11th FYP period, the 12th
FYP on Environmental Protection (2011–2015), the 12th FYP on ECER,
the 12th FYP on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key Regions
(APPC-KR), and APPC-AP (2013–2017). The base year, implementation period,
major goals, and major measures are listed in Table 1.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e955">Overview of major air pollution control policies in China from 2005
to 2017.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.88}[.88]?><oasis:tgroup cols="5">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="justify" colwidth="56.905512pt"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="justify" colwidth="85.358268pt"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="justify" colwidth="284.527559pt"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Policy<inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Base</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Implementation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Major goals</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Major measures</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">year</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">period</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(compared to</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">base year)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">11th FYP    on <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Environmental <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Protection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2005</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2006–2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 10 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Implement desulfurization projects of coal-fired power plants; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Prevent and control urban <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution, relocate pollution industrial plants in urban areas, control construction and road dust; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Implement total emission control policy for key industrial pollution sources, control emission of sulfur dioxide and soot (dust); <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Strengthen vehicle pollution prevention and control, improve quality and efficiency of gasoline.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">ECER <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>during <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>11th FYP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2005</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2006–2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Energy consumption per GDP capita should decrease by 20 % <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 10 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Promote industrial and energy structure adjustment, restrain the development of industries with high energy consumption and pollution, eliminate backward production capacity, promote production capacity with low energy consumption and low pollution; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Implement 10 major energy conservation projects, implement desulfurization projects of coal-fired power plants.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">12th FYP    on <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Environmental <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Protection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2011–2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 8 % <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 10 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Implement desulfurization and denitration facilities for coal-fired power sector and major industrial sectors; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Control <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions of vehicles and ships; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Deepen PM and VOC pollution control; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Promote urban air pollution prevention and control, implement coordinated control of various pollutants in key areas, monitor <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in Jingjinji, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta regions.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">ECER <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>during <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>12th FYP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2011–2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Energy consumption per GDP capita should decrease by 16 % <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 8 % <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission should be reduced by 10 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Adjust and optimize industrial structure, control the development of industries with high energy consumption and pollution, eliminate backward production capacity; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Adjust energy consumption structure, strengthen energy conservation for industrial, building, transportation, commercial and civil areas, etc; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Strengthen emissions reduction in key industrial sectors, promote desulfurization and denitration, control emissions of vehicles, promote the control of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">The <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>12th FYP    on <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>APPC-KR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">b</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2011–2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Emission of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and industrial PM should decrease by 12 %, 13 %, and 10 %, respectively <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>The annual average concentration of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> should decrease by 10 %, 10 %, 7 %, and 5 %, respectively</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Identify the key regions and implement regional specific management <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Strictly control high-energy-consumption and high-pollution projects, control new pollutant emissions, implement strict emission standards, and enhance control requirements of VOCs in key regions; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Strengthen elimination of backward production capacity, optimize industrial layout; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Optimize energy consumption structure, develop clean energy, control total coal consumption, establish restricted zones for high polluting fuels, eliminate small coal boilers, promote clean and efficient utilization of coal; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Comprehensively implement co-control of multiple pollutants (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, PM, VOCs), strengthen vehicle pollution prevention and control; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Innovate regional management mechanisms, establish joint regional prevention and control coordination mechanisms, establish and perfect ground-monitoring networks.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">APPC-AP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2012</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2013–2017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of Jingjinji, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta regions should be reduced by 25 %, 20 %, and 15 % respectively <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of Beijing should be controlled at around 60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Enhance comprehensive air pollution control on industrial enterprises, deepen non-point source control, strengthen vehicle pollution control; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Adjust, optimize, and upgrade industrial structure, strictly control new capacity with high energy consumption and high pollution, accelerate elimination of backward production capacity, reduce excess capacity; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Accelerate energy structure adjustment, accelerate utilization of clean energy, control total coal consumption, promote clean utilization of coal, improve energy efficiency; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Optimize industrial layout; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Utilize the market mechanisms, improve the pricing and tax policy, establish regional coordination mechanisms; <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?>Establish monitoring, early warning, and emergency system for heavy pollution episodes.</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.90}[.90]?><table-wrap-foot><p id="d1e958"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Abbreviations – FYP: Five-Year Plan;  ECER: Energy Conservation and
Emissions Reduction;  APPC-KR: Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key
Regions;  APPC-AP: Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control. <?xmltex \hack{\\}?><inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">b</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> The key regions are shown in Fig. S1 in the Supplement.</p></table-wrap-foot><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e1494">During the 11th FYP period, there was no specific air pollution control
policy. Air pollution prevention and control measures were incorporated into
the whole environmental protection plan or policy (i.e., 11th FYP on
Environmental Protection and ECER policy). From Table 1 we can see that the
air pollution policies during the 11th FYP mainly focused on total emission
reduction. In this period, environmental management in China was emission
control oriented; that is, the indicators for local governments'
environmental performance assessment were emission reduction rates, not the
environmental quality. The 12th FYP on Environmental Protection and
ECER policy were basically the extension of the 11th FYP policies,
which mainly focused on emission reduction.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6864?><p id="d1e1498">The 12th FYP on APPC-KR is the first special plan for air pollution
prevention and control. This plan proposed the idea of unification of total
emission reduction and air quality improvement. And it proposed the goals of
air pollutant concentration control for the first time. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution
control was also incorporated into this plan. Although the implementation
period of the 12th FYP on APPC-KR was 2011–2015, it was issued in 29 October 2012. After
that, China issued the APPC-AP (2013–2017) in 10 September 2013, which strengthened the air pollution control and the goals of air
quality improvement. These policies indicated that the focus of air
pollution control in China began to focus on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations
reductions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Data and methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Satellite-based {$\protect\chem{PM_{{2.5}}}$} from 2004 to 2013}?><title>Satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 2004 to 2013</title>
      <p id="d1e1550">We estimated the monthly satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data from 2004 to 2013
at 0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> resolution in our previous work    (Ma et al.,
2016). Briefly, we developed a two-stage statistical model using MODIS
Collection 6 AOD and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and ground-monitored <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in 2013. The overall model
cross-validation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (coefficient of determination) was 0.79 (daily
estimates) for the model year. Since ground-monitored data before 2013 have
been lacking and therefore it is not possible to develop statistical models before
2013 to estimate historical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. Thus, the historical
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations (2004–2012) were then estimated using the model
developed based on the 2013 model. Two methods were used to validate the accuracy
of historical estimates. First, we compared the historical estimate
monitoring data from Hong Kong and Taiwan before 2013. Second, we estimated
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in the first half of 2014 using the 2013 model and
compared them with the ground measurements to evaluate the accuracy of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> estimates beyond the model year, which can represent the accuracy
of historical estimates. Validation results indicated that it accurately
predicted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations with little bias at the monthly level
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.73</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, slope <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.91</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e1676">For <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations from 2004 to 2013, we used the
abovementioned satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset, which was estimated
using the model developed in 2013. First, this dataset has shown high
accuracy and has been widely used in environmental epidemiological  (Liu
et al., 2016a; Wang et al., 2018a), health impact  (Liu et al., 2017b; Wang
et al., 2018b), and social economic impact    (Chen and Jin, 2019; Yang
and Zhang, 2018) studies in China. Second, a recent study has shown that the
historical hindcast ability of the annual model decreased when hindcast year
was long before the model year   (Xiao et al., 2018). Therefore, we
did not use the models of 2014 to 2017 to estimate the hindcast <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Satellite-based {$\protect\chem{PM_{{2.5}}}$} from 2014 to 2017}?><title>Satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 2014 to 2017</title>
      <p id="d1e1732">Unlike historical estimates from 2004 to 2012, we have sufficient ground-monitored <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data to develop statistical models after 2013, which
allows us to estimate daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations accurately.
Therefore, we developed a separate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–AOD statistical model for each
year of 2014–2017 to estimate the spatially resolved (0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
resolution) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. To keep satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
estimates of 2014–2017 consistent with our previous satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
dataset, we used the same method as described in our previous study
(Ma et al., 2016). The data, model development, and model
validation are briefly introduced as follows.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1813">Spatial distributions of ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> monitors involved in
model fitting and validation. Red circles denote the ground monitors in 2014.
Pink circles denote new ground monitors established in 2015.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=384.112205pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1833">The data used in this study include ground-monitored <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), Aqua MODIS Collection 6 Dark Target (DT)
AOD and Deep Blue (DB) AOD data, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH, 100 m),
wind speed (WS, m s<inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) at 10 m above the ground, mean relative humidity in
PBL (RH_PBLH,  %), surface pressure (PS, hPa),
precipitation of the previous day (Precip_Lag1;  mm), MODIS
active fire spots, urban cover ( %), and forest cover ( %). ground-monitored <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data were collected from the China Environmental Monitoring
Center (CEMC), environmental protection agencies of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Figure 1 shows the ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> monitors used in this study. AOD data were
downloaded from the Level 1 and Atmospheric Archive and Distribution System
(<uri>https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/</uri>, last access:  29 March 2019).
Meteorological data were extracted from Goddard Earth Observing System Data
Assimilation System GEOS-5 Forward Processing (GEOS 5-FP) meteorological
data (<uri>ftp://rain.ucis.dal.ca</uri>, last access: 29 March 2019). MODIS fire spots
were from the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System
(<uri>https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data/near-real-time/firms</uri>,
last access: 29 March 2019). Land use information were downloaded from
Resource and Environment Data Cloud Platform of Chinese Academy of Science
(<uri>http://www.resdc.cn/data.aspx?DATAID=184</uri>, last access: 29 March 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e1915">Previous studies have shown the data quality issue of ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
measurements from the CEMC network  (Liu et al., 2016b; Rohde and Muller,
2015). We performed the data screening procedure before model fitting.
Abnormal values (extreme high or extreme low values for a site compared with
its neighboring sites, repeated values for continuous hours, etc.) were
deleted before model fitting. We required at least 20 hourly records to
calculate the daily average <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. DT and DB AOD were
combined using an inverse variance weighting method to improve the spatial
coverage of AOD data    (Ma et al., 2016). These combined AOD data have shown good consistency (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, mean bias <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.07</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) with ground
AOD measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)    (Ma et al.,
2016). All data were assigned to a predefined 0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> grid. Then all
of the variables were matched by grid cell and day of the year (DOY) for model
fitting.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6865?><p id="d1e1974">A two-stage statistical model was developed for each year separately from
2014 to 2017. The first-stage linear mixed effects (LME) model included
day-specific random intercepts and slopes for AOD, season-specific random
slopes for meteorological variables, and fixed slope for precipitation and
fire spots. The model structure of first-stage model is shown as follows:

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M134" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:msub><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">AOD</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">WS</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PBLH</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PS</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">RH</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">_</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PBLH</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Precip</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">_</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Lag</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Fire</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">_</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spots</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mfenced open="[" close="]"><mml:mrow><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ψ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>1</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mfenced open="[" close="]"><mml:mrow><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ψ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measurements at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> on
DOY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>;  AOD<inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is DT-DB merged AOD;  WS<inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, PBLH<inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, PS<inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>,
RH_PBLH<inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, and Precip_Lag1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> are meteorological variables;  Fire_spots<inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is the fire count;
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are the fixed and day-specific random intercepts,
respectively;  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are fixed slopes;  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the day-specific random slope for AOD;  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are the season-specific random slopes for meteorological variables;
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the error term at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> on DOY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
the error term at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in season <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>;  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ψ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ψ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are the variance–covariance matrices for the day- and
season-specific random effects, respectively. The first-stage model was
fitted for each province separately. We created a buffer zone for each
province to include data with at least 3000 data records and at least 300 d. We averaged overlapped predictions from neighboring provinces to
generate a smooth national <inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration surface.</p>
      <p id="d1e2660">The second-stage generalized additive model (GAM) established the
relationship between the residuals of the first-stage model and smooth terms
of geographical coordinates, forest and urban cover.

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M161" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">_</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">resid</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ForestCover</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E2"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>2</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UrbanCover</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>_resid<inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is the residual of the first-stage model at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> on
DOY <inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>,  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the intercept,  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the smooth term of the
coordinates of the centroid of grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>,  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>(ForestCover)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>(UrbanCover)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> are the smooth functions of forest cover and urban area for grid
cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>,  and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the error term.</p>
      <p id="d1e2899">To evaluate the model over-fitting, 10-fold cross-validation (CV) was used;
that is, the model could have better prediction performance in the model
fitting dataset than the data, which are not included model fitting. In
10-fold CV, all samples in the model dataset are randomly and equally
divided into 10 subsets. One subset was used as testing samples and the
rest of the subsets are used to fit the model. This process was repeated for 10 rounds until each subset was used for testing for once. Statistical
indicators of coefficient of determination (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), mean prediction error
(MPE), and root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) were calculated and
compared between model fitting and CV to assess model performance and
over-fitting.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Time series analysis</title>
      <?pagebreak page6866?><p id="d1e2921">Monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations for each grid cell were calculated
to perform the time series analysis. Following our previous study
(Ma et al., 2016), we required at least six daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> predictions in each month to calculate the monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. We
deseasonalized the monthly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> time series by calculating the monthly
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomaly time series for each grid cell to remove the seasonal
effect. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend for each grid cell was calculated using least
squares regression   (Weatherhead et al., 1998):

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M183" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">anomaly</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E3"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>3</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">…</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mo>;</mml:mo><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.25em"/><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">…</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">anomaly</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mo>;</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E4"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>4</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">…</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

            where (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">anomaly</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> anomaly at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> for month <inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> during the
calculating period; (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is the estimated
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration at grid cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> for month <inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>;
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the month index and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:mi>M</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the total number of months during
the calculating period (2004–2017, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">168</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>);
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>s</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math></inline-formula> is the 14-year average <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentration of the month to which month <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> belongs (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for
January, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for February, … , etc.); <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the intercept;
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the slope, which is also the trend of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> month<inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>); and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the error term.
The annual <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) is
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. A <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test was used to obtain the statistical significance
of the trends. This method has been successfully applied to trend analyses of
monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and AOD anomaly time-series data (Hsu et al.,
2012; Boys et al., 2014; Zhang and Reid, 2010; Xue et al., 2019). We analyzed
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend for different periods to examine the effects of air
pollution control policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution improvement.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Results and discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Validation of satellite-based {$\protect\chem{PM_{{2.5}}}$} concentrations from 2014 to
2017}?><title>Validation of satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations from 2014 to
2017</title>
      <p id="d1e3607">Table S1 in the Supplement summarized the statistics of all variables for the
modeling dataset from 2014 to 2017. Overall, there are 95 649, 110 805,
113 490, and 123 652 matchups for the model fitting
datasets for years of 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. The average
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration decreases year by year, from
65.66 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2014 to 48.32 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2017.
Correspondingly, the average AOD also shows a decreasing trend from 0.67 in
2014 to 0.50 in 2017.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e3663">Model fitting (upper row) and
cross-validation (CV, lower row) results for satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M224" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
prediction models from 2014 to 2017.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e3683">Figure 2 shows the model fitting and cross-validation results for each year's
model. The model fitting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ranges from 0.75 (2015) to 0.80 (2017) and
CV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ranges from 0.72 (2015) to 0.77 (2017), which is similar to the
2013 model (0.82 for model fitting and 0.79 for CV) developed in our previous
study (Ma et al., 2016). The model prediction accuracy is different among
years, which is consistent with previous studies. Hu et al. (2014) studied
the 10-year spatial and temporal trends of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in
the southeastern US from 2001 to 2010. They developed a separate two-stage
statistical model for each year and found the CV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ranged from 0.62 in
2009 to 0.78 in 2005 and 2006. Kloog et al. (2011, 2012) conducted two
studies in the northeastern US and also found that the validation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
varied among years. Compared to the model fitting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the CV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
only decreases by 0.02 in 2016
and 0.03 in 2014, 2015, and 2017, showing that our models were not
substantially over-fitted. For the monthly mean concentrations calculated
from at least six daily <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> predictions, the validation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
values range from 0.75 to 0.81 (Fig. 3). The results show that the overall
prediction accuracy of the models from 2014 to 2017 is satisfying.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e3789">Validation of monthly mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> predictions from 2014 to
2017.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e3809">The fixed effects, model fitting, and CV results of the first-stage LME
model for each province are shown in Tables S2–S5. AOD is the only
variable that was statistically significant in all provincial models for all
years (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation, and
fire spots were significant in most provincial models. The CV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> varies
for different provinces and different years. The CV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values range from
0.61 in Xinjiang to 0.77 in Heilongjiang for 2014, from 0.34 in Xinjiang to
0.76 in Hebei for 2015, from 0.44 in Tibet to 0.77 in Jiangsu for 2016, and
from 0.38 in Xinjiang to 0.79 in Sichuan for 2017. We also fitted a
first-stage LME model for all of China. Results show that the overall CV
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values for the first-stage LME model dropped to 0.57, 0.52, 0.56, and
0.54, for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. Therefore, fitting the
first-stage model for each province separately can greatly improve the
prediction accuracy.</p>
      <p id="d1e3857">A potential source of uncertainties in statistical models is the uneven
spatial distribution of ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> monitors. The CEMC air quality
network mainly covers large urban centers with very limited site coverage in
rural areas, especially in western part of the country. Since it requires a
large amount of ground-measured <inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data to develop
satellite-based statistical model, this bias cannot be avoided. Despite this
limitation, high model performances, which are much better than those using
the scaling method, have been achieved in this study and previous similar
studies (Zheng et al., 2016; Huang et al.,
2018; Xue et al., 2019). For example,
Geng et al. (2015) estimated long-term <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations in China using a scaling method and found the validation
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M243" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> predictions was 0.72 compared to the 5-month
averaged ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations for January–May 2013. A global study
of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> estimates combining scaling and statistical methods shows that
their validation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of long-term average <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was 0.67 for their
first-stage scaling method    (van Donkelaar et al., 2016).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Overall spatial and temporal trend of {$\protect\chem{PM_{{2.5}}}$} concentrations in
China from 2004 to 2017}?><title>Overall spatial and temporal trend of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in
China from 2004 to 2017</title>
      <p id="d1e3980">Figure 4 shows that spatial distribution characteristics of annual mean
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations are similar among the years from 2004 to 2017. The
most polluted area was the North China Plain (including the south of the
Jingjinji region, Henan, and Shandong Provinces), which was also the largest polluted
area. The Sichuan Basin (including eastern Sichuan and western Chongqing) is
another polluted area. The cleanest areas were mainly located in Tibet,
Hainan, Taiwan, Yunnan, and the north of Inner Mongolia. The spatial
distributions of satellite-derived <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations from 2013 to
2017 are consistent with the spatial characteristics of ground-monitored
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. S2).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e4018">Spatial distributions of annual mean satellite-derived <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations from 2004 to 2017.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e4041">Spatial distributions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends and significance levels
in China from 2004 to 2017.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e4064">Trends and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations for all of China and the Jingjinji, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl
River Delta regions from 2004 to 2017.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="6">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Period</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">All of China</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Jingjinji region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Yangtze River Delta</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Pearl River Delta</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2004–2017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.55</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.60</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.04</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.06</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.03</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.02</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.18</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.66</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.88</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M275" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2005–2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.26</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.61</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.26</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 0.82)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.83</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 1.36)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.31</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 1.54)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.73</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 0.21)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.055</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.633</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.191</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.091</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2004–2007</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.88</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">1.12</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">1.72</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(1.12, 2.64)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(1.07, 5.22)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.51</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 2.74)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.79</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 4.23)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.005</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.174</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.174</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2007–2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.56</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.08</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.37</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.81</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.12</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 0.01)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.80</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 1.64)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 1.35)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7.06</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.55</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.053</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.927</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.664</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2010–2013</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.03</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M327" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.45</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.04</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.89</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.84</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.21</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.73</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 2.83)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.16</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 2.08)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.34</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 3.13)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.050</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.783</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.970</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.425</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2010–2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.89</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.63</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.33</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.90</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.28</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5.59</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.68</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.76</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.89</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.34</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 0.54)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.219</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">2013–2017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M364" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M365" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M366" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.77</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M367" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.36</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M368" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.11</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">95 % CI (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M369" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M370" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M371" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M372" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5.20</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M373" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.34</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M374" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">9.46</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M375" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.07</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M376" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8.38</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M377" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.34</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M378" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.14</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M379" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.09</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Significance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M380" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M381" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M382" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M383" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.050</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <?pagebreak page6867?><p id="d1e5853">Figure 5 shows the spatial distributions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M384" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends and
significance levels in China from 2004 to 2017. Overall, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M385" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution level of most areas in China showed a decreasing trend
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M386" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Figure 6 and Table 2 show that the overall trends of
2004–2017 for all of China and the Jingjinji, Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl
River Delta (PRD) regions were <inline-formula><mml:math id="M387" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M388" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.55</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M389" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.60</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M390" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M391" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M392" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M393" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
(all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M394" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), respectively. Back to Fig. 4, we can
see that the decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M395" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mainly happened after 2013. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M396" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations showed an obvious increase from 2004 to 2007. The area with
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M397" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations higher than 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M398" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M399" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> continuously
expanded during this period. From 2008 to 2013, the pollution levels
plateaued in most areas. After 2013, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M400" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations obviously
decreased.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e6042"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M401" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends for all of China and the Jingjinji, Yangtze River Delta
(YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions from 2004 to 2017, and
corresponding air pollution control policies.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Effect of ECER policy during the 11th Five-Year Plan period</title>
      <p id="d1e6069">To assess the effect of ECER policy during the 11th FYP, we calculated the
trends of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M402" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for 2005–2010, 2004–2007, and 2007–2010 for each grid
cell (Fig. 7).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e6085">Spatial distributions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M403" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends and significance levels
in China from 2005 to 2010.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e6105">Compared to the base year (2005) of the 11th FYP period, the overall
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M404" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution of 2010 did not show obvious change. Some of the area
showed decreasing trends (Fig. 7a) but the trends were insignificant
(Fig. 7b). Some regions (Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu provinces and
northeastern China) showed a slight increasing trend (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M405" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>–2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M406" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M407" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M408" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M409" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).
Overall, the trends for all of China and the
Jingjinji, YRD, and PRD regions were all insignificant (0.41, 0.26, 0.61,
and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M410" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.26</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M411" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M412" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M413" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, and all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M414" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) during the 11th
FYP period.</p>
      <p id="d1e6229">However, when separating this period into two periods, we can see that
before 2007, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M415" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations generally had significant
increasing trends (Fig. 7c, d), especially in the south of the Jingjinji
region and in Henan, Shandong, and Hubei provinces. The overall trends for all of China and
the Jingjinji region are 1.88 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M416" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and 3.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M417" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M418" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M419" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M420" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.005</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)
(Table 2). The trends for YRD and PRD regions are
insignificant. During the 10th FYP period, China missed the emission
control goals. The emission of sulfur dioxide increased by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M421" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">28</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %  (Xue et al., 2014; Schreifels et al., 2012). The 11th FYP for
National Economic and Social Development of China released in 2006 proposed
the ECER goals.<?pagebreak page6869?> However, China did not achieve the annual goal in 2006.
These could explain the increasing trend of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M422" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during 2004–2007.</p>
      <p id="d1e6321">After that, China released the Comprehensive Working Plan on ECER
(<uri>http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-06/03/content_634545.htm</uri>,
last access: 29 March 2019) in 2007 to strengthen the ECER measures. Major
control measures included     (Schreifels et al., 2012)
implementing flue gas desulfurization for coal-fired power plants, closing
inefficient and backward production centers, implementing energy
conservation projects, increasing the pollution levy for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M423" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission,
recommending baghouse dust filters for industrial soot and dust emission
control, etc. As a result, great achievements had been made at the end of
11th FYP  (Schreifels et al., 2012; Zhou et al., 2015): total emission
of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M424" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decreased by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M425" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> % compared to the level of
1995;  approximately 86 % of the power plants were installed with
desulfurization facilities in 2010 compared to 14 % in 2005;  nearly 80 GW of small coal-fired power units were closed during 2006–2010;  soot emission
of coal-fired power plants in 2010 was reduced by 55.6 % compared with
that in 2005, etc.</p>
      <p id="d1e6359">Due to these control measures, the increasing trend of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M426" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution
was suppressed after 2007. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M427" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of central and
southern China decreased significantly, with highest trend of around <inline-formula><mml:math id="M428" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">9</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M429" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M430" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M431" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. 7e, f), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M432" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). The south of Jingjinji
region and Henan, Shandong, and Hubei provinces, which had significantly
increased before 2007, showed insignificant trends (Fig. 7f,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M433" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Table 2 shows that the overall <inline-formula><mml:math id="M434" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trend for
all of China was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M435" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.56</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M436" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M437" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M438" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> with marginal significance
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M439" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.053</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Overall trends for the Jingjinji and YRD regions were not significant
during the latter half of the 11th FYP period. And <inline-formula><mml:math id="M440" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations in the PRD region had a big drop (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M441" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.81</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M442" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M443" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M444" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M445" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Results show that although air pollution control policies
of the 11th FYP were not designed for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M446" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> prevention and control,
they still had co-benefits on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M447" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution control. There were two
main reasons. First, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M448" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the precursor gas of sulfate. Previous
studies have shown that sulfate was the major component of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M449" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during the 11th FYP period (Li et al., 2009, 2010; Pathak et al.,
2009). The reduction of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M450" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> could therefore contribute to the
suppression of increasing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M451" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution. Second, the control of
industrial dust and soot, which include a portion of primary <inline-formula><mml:math id="M452" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Yao et al., 2009), also contributed to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M453" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution reduction.</p>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page6870?><sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4">
  <label>4.4</label><title>Effect of air pollution control policies in the 12th Five-Year Plan
period (2011–2015)</title>
      <?pagebreak page6871?><p id="d1e6680">Figure 8a and b show that most of the areas of China show a significant
decreasing trend during the 12th FYP period. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M454" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of
all of China, Jingjinji, and YRD dropped by 2.89, 3.63,
and 3.33 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M455" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M456" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M457" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M458" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). When considering the years from 2010 to
2013, although the overall trend of all of China was <inline-formula><mml:math id="M459" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.03</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M460" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M461" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M462" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M463" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, Table 2), the decreasing trend mainly
happened in Xinjiang and central Inner Mongolia. The deserts in Xinjiang and
Inner Mongolia are the major sources of dust pollution in China. A recent
study showed that dust is the largest contributor to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M464" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over this
region     (Philip et al., 2014). The change in natural dust in desert areas may be
the major contributor to the decreasing trend of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M465" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during 2010–2013. Most of the polluted area in China did not
show obvious change (Fig. 8c and d). As we mentioned above, The ECER policy
during the 12th FYP period was basically the extension of the policy in the 11th FYP, which mainly focused on emissions reduction. Due to the development of the social economy, the ECER policy has shown limitations
in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M466" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M467" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is a kind of composite pollutant and its
constituents includes primary particles and secondary particles such as
sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, etc. With the
deepening of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M468" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and industrial dust and soot emission reduction, their
contributions to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M469" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution control would be reduced, although
the 12th FYP on Environmental Protection also proposed a 10 % reduction of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M470" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 2010 to 2015. However, along with economic growth in China,
the benefits of emission control for a single pollutant could be offset by
increased energy usage. Considering the complicated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M471" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> compositions,
comprehensive and coordinated control measures for multiple pollutants are
urgently needed.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e6885">Spatial distributions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M472" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends and significance levels
in China from 2010 to 2017.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/6861/2019/acp-19-6861-2019-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e6905">Therefore, China issued the 12th FYP on APPC-KR in late 2012, which is
the first special plan for air pollution prevention and control and focused
on air quality improvement. APPC-KR proposed a series of key projects which
included 477 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M473" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> treatment projects, 755 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M474" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> treatment projects,
10 073 industrial soot and dust treatment projects, 1311 VOC treatment
projects in key industrial sectors, 281 vapor recovery projects for oil and
gas, 188 yellow-sticker vehicle elimination projects, 192 fugitive dust
comprehensive treatment projects, and 122 capacity building projects. An
English translation of APPC-KR and its key projects has been
prepared by the Clean Air Alliance of China (CAAC) and can be found elsewhere
(<uri>http://www.cleanairchina.org/product/6347.html</uri>, last access: 29 March 2019)
(CAAC, 2013c, a).</p>
      <p id="d1e6934">In addition, in 2012, China issued a new air quality standard, i.e., the
National Ambient Air Quality Standard of China (NAAQS) (GB 3095-2012).
Compared with the former  NAAQS  (GB 3095-1996) issued
in 1996, this new standard incorporated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M475" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as a major control
pollutant. According to GB 3095-2012, the Level 1 annual mean standard of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M476" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is 15 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M477" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M478" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is assigned for protecting the air
quality of natural reserves and scenic areas and is equivalent to the World
Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Interim Target-3 (IT-3). The
Level 2 standard of 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M479" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M480" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> is designated for residential,
cultural, industrial, and commercial areas, which is equivalent to WHO Air
Quality Interim Target-1 (IT-1). Meanwhile, a comprehensive real-time
air<?pagebreak page6872?> quality monitoring network covering 74 major Chinese cities was
established in late 2012.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d1e7003">Goals and accomplishments for key regions of the 12th FYP on APPC-KR.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="8">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Goal</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry namest="col3" nameend="col5" align="center" colsep="1">Average satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M481" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry namest="col6" nameend="col8" align="center">Population-weighted average </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(decrease by)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col3" nameend="col5" align="center" colsep="1">concentrations </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col6" nameend="col8" align="center">satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M482" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Decreased</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">2010</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">2015</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">Decreased</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M483" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M484" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M485" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M486" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">by</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M487" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M488" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M489" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M490" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">by</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Beijing</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">15 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">68.75</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">58.47</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">14.9 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">83.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">70.61</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">15.3 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Tianjin</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">97.17</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">75.17</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">22.6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">96.13</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">76.09</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">20.8 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Hebei</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">74.72</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">58.19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">22.1 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">101.25</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">75.15</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">25.8 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Shanghai</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">66.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">58.83</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">11.4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">64.30</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">60.67</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">5.7 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Jiangsu</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">7 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">81.23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">62.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">23.4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">82.18</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">63.19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">23.1 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Zhejiang</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">52.85</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">38.73</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">26.7 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">58.68</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">47.37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">19.3 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Pearl River Delta</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">45.00</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">37.97</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">15.6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">50.07</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">40.99</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">18.1 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Central Liaoning</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">58.10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">53.00</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">8.8 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">64.97</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">58.40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">10.1 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Shandong</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">7 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">94.57</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">71.83</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">24.0 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">97.83</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">73.76</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">24.6 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Wuhan region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">75.02</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">55.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">26.1 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">79.86</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">58.62</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">26.6 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Changzhutan region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">64.81</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">52.75</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">18.6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">72.32</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">60.19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">16.8 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Chongqing</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">65.89</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">47.48</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">27.9 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">77.36</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">52.71</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">31.9 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Chengdu region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">83.55</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">52.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">37.5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">92.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">57.40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">37.8 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Fujian</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">37.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">28.02</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">25.1 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">34.48</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">29.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">15.3 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Central and northern Shanxi</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">53.76</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">40.05</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">25.5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">63.05</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">46.78</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">25.8 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Guanzhong</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">65.91</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">45.33</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">31.2 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">79.54</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">53.91</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">32.2 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Lanzhou region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">55.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">45.31</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">18.2 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">62.47</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">47.77</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">23.5 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Yinchuan</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">42.81</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">48.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M491" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12.4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">46.51</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">51.81</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M492" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">11.4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Urumqi region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">60.26</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">27.83</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">53.8 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">65.80</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">36.05</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">45.2 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e7769">The implementation of APPC-KR, together with the implementation of APPC-AP
starting from 2013 (shown in the following section), led to dramatic
drops in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M493" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in China after 2013. Table 3 shows
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M494" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration improvement goals and final accomplishments for key
regions (see Fig. S1) of the 12th FYP on APPC-KR calculated from
satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M495" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Results show that all key regions accomplished the
goals except for Yinchuan. The changes in population-weighted averages also
show similar results. Overall, the 12th FYP on APPC-KR accomplished its
air pollution control goals. And the decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M496" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations
was mainly attributable to the decrease after 2013.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS5">
  <label>4.5</label><title>Effect of Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control
(2013–2017)</title>
      <p id="d1e7825">China issued the APPC-AP (2013–2017) in late 2013, which further
strengthened the air pollution control measures and air quality improvement
goals. The air pollution control measures included 10 categories:
<list list-type="bullet"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7830">increase effort for comprehensive pollution control, reduce emissions of
multi-pollutants;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7834">optimize industrial structure and promote industrial restructuring;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7838">accelerate technology transformation and improve innovation capability;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7842">adjust energy structure and increase clean energy supply;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7846">strengthen environmental thresholds and optimize industrial layout;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7850">promote the role of market mechanisms and improve environmental economic
policies;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7854">improve law and regulation system and carry on supervision and management based
on law;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7858">establish regional coordination mechanism and integrated regional
environmental management;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7862">establish monitoring and warning system and cope with heavy pollution episodes;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e7866">clarify responsibilities of government, enterprise, and society and mobilize
public participation</p></list-item></list></p>
      <p id="d1e7869">Detailed measures of the APPC-AP can be found in English translation
at <uri>http://www.cleanairchina.org/product/6349.html</uri> (last access: 29 March 2019)
(CAAC, 2013b). To ensure that APPC-AP goals could be accomplished,
China adopted a temporary measure in 2017, i.e., the intensified supervision
for air pollution control in Jingjinji and the surrounding area
(<uri>http://www.gov.cn/hudong/2017-07/14/content_5210588.htm</uri>,
last access: 29 March 2019). There had been great achievements at the end of
2017. For example    (Zheng et al., 2018),
71 % of the power plants met the ultralow emission levels; the average
efficiency of coal-fired power units decreased from 321 g.c.e. kWh<inline-formula><mml:math id="M497" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2013 to 309 g.c.e. kWh<inline-formula><mml:math id="M498" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2017;
non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions
were cut down by 30 % through the implementation of a leak detection and
repair (LDAR) program for the petrochemical industry;  all coal boilers smaller
than 7 MW in urban areas were shut down; and all “yellow label” vehicles
(referring to gasoline and diesel vehicles that fail to meet Euro 1
and Euro 3 standards, respectively) were eliminated by the end of 2017, to name a few.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Table 4</label><caption><p id="d1e7905">Goals and accomplishments of APPC-AP (2013–2017).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.94}[.94]?><oasis:tgroup cols="9">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Region</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Goal</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Official assessment</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry namest="col4" nameend="col6" align="center" colsep="1">Average satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M500" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry namest="col7" nameend="col9" align="center">Population-weighted average satellite </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(decrease by)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">results <inline-formula><mml:math id="M501" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col4" nameend="col6" align="center" colsep="1">concentrations </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col7" nameend="col9" align="center"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M502" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2013</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">2017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Decreased</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">2013</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">2017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">Decreased</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M503" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M504" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M505" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M506" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">by</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M507" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M508" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M509" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M510" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">by</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Jingjinji</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">25 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">39.6 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">76.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">47.98</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">36.9 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">100.91</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">60.97</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">39.6 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Yangtze River Delta</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">20 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">34.3 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">66.60</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">41.87</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">37.1 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">71.98</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">46.45</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">35.5 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Pearl River Delta</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">15 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">27.7 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">45.15</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">38.84</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">14.0 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">49.96</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">40.37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">19.2 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Beijing</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Be controlled at</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M511" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M512" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">68.20</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">44.67</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">34.5 %</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">82.69</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">55.07</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">33.4 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">around 60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M513" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M514" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.94}[.94]?><table-wrap-foot><p id="d1e7908"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M499" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> See <uri>http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/sthjbgw/stbgth/201806/t20180601_442262.htm</uri> (last access:
29 March 2019).</p></table-wrap-foot><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e8338">The implementation of APPC-AP, together with the 12th FYP on APPC-KR, had
led to a dramatic drop in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M515" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations from 2013 to 2017 (Fig. 8e and f).
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M516" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends of 2013–2017 for all of China, Jingjinji,
YRD, and PRD regions were <inline-formula><mml:math id="M517" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M518" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.77</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M519" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.36</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M520" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.11</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M521" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M522" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M523" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M524" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>),
respectively (Table 2). This is
comparable to a recent study    (Silver et al., 2018), which
found that the median trend in annual mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M525" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration across all
ground air pollution monitoring stations is  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M526" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M527" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M528" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M529" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> from
2015 to 2017. Table 4 shows <inline-formula><mml:math id="M530" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration improvement goals and
final accomplishments for APPC-AP. The goals required that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M531" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
concentrations in Jingjinji, YRD, and PRD regions in 2017 should decrease
by 25 %, 20 %, and 15 % compared to 2012, and the annual mean
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M532" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of Beijing should reach around 60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M533" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M534" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Since
there were no ground measurements in 2012, the Ministry of Ecology and
Environment (MEE) of China used 2013 as the base year to assess the
performance of<?pagebreak page6874?> APPC-AP
(<uri>http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/sthjbgw/stbgth/201806/t20180601_442262.htm</uri>, last access: 29 March 2019). To maintain consistency with the
official performance assessment, we also used 2013 as the base year. Results
show that the arithmetic average of satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M535" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations for
Jingjinji, YRD, and PRD regions decreased by 36.9 %, 37.1 %, and
14.0 %, respectively, and annual mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M536" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of Beijing was 44.67 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M537" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M538" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2017. From the view of satellite, Jingjinji, YRD, and
Beijing accomplished their goals, and PRD was very close to the goal.
However, the pollution level was still higher than WHO Air Quality IT-1
level and NAAQS (GB 3095-2012) Level 2 annual <inline-formula><mml:math id="M539" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> standards (both 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M540" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M541" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e8633">According to the official results of APPC-AP performance assessment (Table 4), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M542" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of Jingjinji, YRD, and PRD regions decreased by
39.6 %, 34.3 %, and 27.7 %, respectively. And annual mean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M543" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
of Beijing was 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M544" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M545" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2017. Compared to the arithmetic
average satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M546" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the populations weighted average results
(Table 4) are closer to the official results. The main reason is that
official performance assessment used ground measurements. However, the
spatial distribution of ground monitors is uneven. Most of the sites are
distributed in populated urban areas and only a few are located in rural
areas. Compared to ground monitors, satellite remote sensing has more
comprehensive spatial coverage. Figure S3 shows the spatial distribution of
satellite and ground <inline-formula><mml:math id="M547" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of 2017 in Beijing. It can be
seen that the ground monitors are clustered in polluted urban centers. The
cleaner north and northwest of Beijing have few sites. Thus the population-weighted results of satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M548" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are closer to the official results,
but still have differences. Since satellites have better spatial
coverage than ground monitors, satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M549" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> can better represent the
spatial variation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M550" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution. The population-weighted average
satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M551" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> can better represent the health impact of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M552" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution. When using ground monitors to calculate the regional mean
concentrations, the weights of area and population for each site should be
considered.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Discussion and conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e8765">Xue et al. (2019) developed a machine learning method to estimate
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M553" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in China from 2000 to 2016. They reported that
overall trends of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M554" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in China were 2.097 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M555" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M556" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M557" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M558" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), 0.299 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M559" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M560" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M561" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M562" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>),
and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M563" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.511</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M564" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M565" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M566" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M567" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) in 2000–2007, 2008–2013, and 2013–2016,
respectively.  Lin et al. (2018) estimated high-resolution <inline-formula><mml:math id="M568" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
in annual scale in China from 2001 to 2015, and found national-scale trends of
0.04, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M569" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.65</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M570" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.33</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M571" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M572" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M573" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2001–2005, 2005–2010, and 2011–2015, respectively.
Overall, our satellite-based <inline-formula><mml:math id="M574" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trends are consistent with these two
recent studies, except that we found no significant trend from 2005 to 2010
(0.41 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M575" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M576" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M577" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> but <inline-formula><mml:math id="M578" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which is different from the study of
Lin et al. (2018). The main reason could be that they did not include
western China in their study area, and statistical significance levels were
not reported in their study, which means that it is not known whether the
trend was significant or not.</p>
      <p id="d1e9054">Although there have been several studies on the historical trends
of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M579" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in China, few have looked at the relations between the trends and
air pollution control policies. This paper reviewed the air pollution
control policies from 2005 to 2017. And for the first time we gave an
overall evaluation of the effects of these policies on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M580" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution
improvement in China from the perspective of satellite remote sensing.
Results show that our satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M581" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset is a good source to
evaluate the performance of air pollution policies. The trends of
satellite-derived <inline-formula><mml:math id="M582" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations are consistent with the
implementation of air pollution control policies in different periods.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6875?><p id="d1e9101">The ECER policy implemented in the 11th FYP period (see Table 1 and Sect. 4.3)
had co-benefits with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M583" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution control. The overall <inline-formula><mml:math id="M584" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution decreased to a certain extent (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M585" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.56</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M586" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M587" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M588" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for all of China, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M589" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.053</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) after 2007, but the effects were limited. The Environmental
Protection Plan and ECER policy during the 12th FYP period were basically
the extension of the 11th FYP policy, with additional total emission
control on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M590" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. However, the total emission control oriented policy had
shown its limitation. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M591" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations of polluted areas did
not decrease from 2010 to 2013 (e.g., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M592" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.45</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M593" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M594" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M595" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for
the Jingjinji region, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M596" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.783</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e9258">To address the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M597" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution issue, China implemented two strict
policies: the 12th FYP on APPC-KR in 2012 and APPC-AP in 2013. The goal
of air quality improvement was proposed for the first time. Besides, China
incorporated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M598" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as a major control pollutant into the National
Ambient Air Quality Standard (GB 3095-2012). All these policies (details can
be found in Table 1 and Sect. 4.4 and 4.5) led to dramatic decreases in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M599" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after 2013 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M600" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.27</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M601" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M602" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> year<inline-formula><mml:math id="M603" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for all of China,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M604" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). And the implementation of these policies was also an
important mark that environmental management in China began to change from
total emission control oriented mode to environmental quality improvement
oriented mode.</p>
      <p id="d1e9350">It should be noted that interannual variation in meteorology has also
contributed to the changes in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M605" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. A recent study shows that
meteorological conditions contributed approximately 20 % of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M606" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
reduction in Beijing from 2013 to 2017, while the control of anthropogenic
emissions contributed 80 %    (Chen et al., 2019). In
addition, the slowdown of economic development after the financial crisis in
2008 might contribute to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M607" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions reduction. According to
the China Statistical Yearbook (NBS, 2018), the gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rate decreased from 14.2 % in 2007 to 6.9 % in 2017. However, the
GDP growth rates are still relatively high at the current stage
(6 %–7 %). Contrarily, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M608" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations have
decreased dramatically. Without effective air pollution control policies,
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M609" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution level would not decrease rapidly. Therefore,
the effective air pollution control policy was the main reason for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M610" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
pollution reduction after 2013. Meteorological conditions also contributed a
small portion of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M611" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reductions.</p>
      <p id="d1e9431">The trends in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M612" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in China also showed spatial
heterogeneity. Multiple reasons may explain the regional differences, e.g.,
the pollution levels of base year, the regional differences of industrial
structures, the spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic and natural
emissions, economic and industry development differences, variations of
regional policies, and variations of meteorological conditions.</p>
      <p id="d1e9445">Currently, China has achieved great success in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M613" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution control.
However, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M614" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in many areas are still much higher than
the Level 2 annual <inline-formula><mml:math id="M615" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> standard of 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M616" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M617" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of GB 3095-2012,
which corresponds to WHO Air Quality IT-1. China has implemented
a new air pollution control policy from 2018, i.e., the Three-year Action
Plan to Win the Battle for Blue Skies (2018–2020). China's air quality is
expected to be further improved in the next 3 years.</p>
      <p id="d1e9501">This study extended the satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M618" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> dataset in our previous study
(Ma et al., 2016) to the year of 2017 and obtained longer time
series of satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M619" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data, which can provide more
spatially resolved and highly accurate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M620" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> data for epidemiological,
health impact assessment, and social economic impact studies in China.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability"><title>Data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e9541">The satellite-derived PM<inline-formula><mml:math id="M621" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> data
used in this study can be requested from the corresponding author (jbi@nju.edu.cn).</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e9553">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6861-2019-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6861-2019-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e9562">JB conceived and designed the study. RL collected and processed the
data. ZM and YL performed statistical modeling for satellite
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M622" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> predictions. ZM analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M623" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. JB prepared and analyzed the air pollution
control policies. ZM prepared the paper with contributions from all
coauthors.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e9590">The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e9596">This research has
been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant
nos. 91644220, 71433007, and 41601546) and the Fundamental Research Funds
for the Central Universities of China (grant no. 0211-14380078).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e9602">This paper was edited by Dominick Spracklen and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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    <!--<article-title-html>Effects of air pollution control policies on PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution improvement in China from 2005 to 2017: a satellite-based perspective</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>Understanding
the effectiveness of air pollution control policies is
important for future policy making. China has implemented strict air pollution
control policies since the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP). There is still a lack
of overall evaluation of the effects of air pollution control policies on
PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution improvement in China since the 11th FYP. In this
study, we aimed to assess the effects of air pollution control policies from
2005 to 2017 on PM<sub>2.5</sub> using satellite remote sensing. We
used the satellite-derived PM<sub>2.5</sub> of 2005–2013 from one of our previous
studies. For the data of 2014–2017, we developed a two-stage statistical
model to retrieve satellite PM<sub>2.5</sub> data using the Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD),
assimilated meteorology, and land use data. The first stage is a
day-specific linear mixed effects (LME) model and the second stage is a generalized
additive model (GAM). Results show that the Energy Conservation and
Emissions Reduction (ECER) policy, implemented in the 11th FYP period and
focused on SO<sub>2</sub> emissions control, had co-benefits with PM<sub>2.5</sub>
reductions. The increasing trends of PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution (1.88 and
3.14&thinsp;µg&thinsp;m<sup>−3</sup>&thinsp;year<sup>−1</sup>  for all of China and the Jingjinji region in 2004–2007, <i>p</i><i>&lt;</i>0.005) were suppressed after 2007. The overall PM<sub>2.5</sub> trend for all of China was −0.56&thinsp;µg&thinsp;m<sup>−3</sup>&thinsp;year<sup>−1</sup> with marginal significance
(<i>p</i> = 0.053) and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in the Pearl River Delta region had a
big drop (−4.81&thinsp;µg&thinsp;m<sup>−3</sup>&thinsp;year<sup>−1</sup>, <i>p</i><i>&lt;</i>0.001) in 2007–2010. The
ECER policy during the 12th FYP period was basically an extension of
the 11th FYP policy. PM<sub>2.5</sub> is a kind of composite pollutant which
comprises primary particles and secondary particles such as sulfate,
nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, etc. Since the ECER policy
focused on single-pollutant control, it had shown great limitation for
PM<sub>2.5</sub> reductions. The PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations did not decrease from
2010 to 2013 in polluted areas (<i>p</i> values of the trends were greater than
0.05). Therefore, China implemented two stricter policies: the 12th FYP on
Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key Regions (APPC-KR) in 2012, and
the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control (APPC-AP) in 2013. The
goal of air quality improvement (especially PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration
improvement) and measures for multi-pollutant control were proposed. These
policies led to dramatic decreases in PM<sub>2.5</sub> after 2013 (−4.27&thinsp;µg&thinsp;m<sup>−3</sup>&thinsp;year<sup>−1</sup>
for all of China in 2013–2017, <i>p</i><i>&lt;</i>0.001).</p></abstract-html>
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