ACPAtmospheric Chemistry and PhysicsACPAtmos. Chem. Phys.1680-7324Copernicus PublicationsGöttingen, Germany10.5194/acp-17-8011-2017Are precipitation anomalies associated with aerosol variations over eastern China?XuXiangdeGuoXueliangguoxl@camscma.cnZhaoTianliangtlzhao@nuist.edu.cnAnXingqinZhaoYangQuanJiannongMaoFeiGaoYangChengXinghongZhuWenhuihttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9647-482XWangYinjunState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, ChinaKey Laboratory for Cloud Physics, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory for Aerosol–Cloud–Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information
Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, ChinaBeijing Weather Modification Office, Beijing, 100089, ChinaTianliang Zhao (tlzhao@nuist.edu.cn) and Xueliang Guo (guoxl@camscma.cn)30June201717128011801921November201612January201714May201720May2017This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/8011/2017/acp-17-8011-2017.htmlThe full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/8011/2017/acp-17-8011-2017.pdf
In eastern China (EC), the strong anthropogenic emissions
deteriorate the atmospheric environment, building a south–north zonal
distribution of high aerosols harbored by the upstream Tibetan and Loess
plateaus in China. This study climatologically analyzed the interannual
variability in precipitation with different intensities in association with
aerosol variations over the EC region from 1961 to 2010 by using
precipitation and visibility data from more than 50 years and aircraft and
surface aerosol data from recent years in China, and the impacts of aerosol
variations on interannual variability in the intensity of
precipitation events and their physical causes are investigated. We found
that the frequency of light rain has significantly decreased and the occurrence
of rainstorms, especially severe rainstorms, has significantly increased
over recent decades. The extreme precipitation events presented an
interannual variability pattern similar to that of the frequent haze events over EC.
Accompanied by the frequent haze events in EC, light rain frequency
significantly decreased and extremely heavy precipitation events have
occurred more frequently. During the 1980s, the regional precipitation trends
in EC showed an obvious transform from more light rain to more extreme
rainstorms. The running correlation analysis of interdecadal variation
further verified that the correlation between the increasing aerosols and
frequencies of abnormal precipitation events tended to be more significant in
EC. The correlation between atmospheric visibility and low cloud amounts,
which are both closely related to aerosol concentrations, was positive in the north and negative in the south, and the
spatial distribution of the variability in regional rainstorm frequency was
positive in the south and negative in the north. After the 1990s, the visibility
in summer season deteriorated more remarkably, light rain frequency
decreased noticeably, and rainstorms and extraordinarily heavy rainfall
occurred more frequently. There were significant differences in the
interdecadal variation trends in light rain and rainstorm events between the
highly aerosol-polluted area in EC and the relatively clean area on the
western plateaus of China. The aircraft measurements over EC confirmed
that the diameters of cloud droplets decreased under high aerosol
concentration conditions, thereby inhibiting weak precipitation process.
Introduction
In the context of global warming, regional precipitation tends to
have more complex temporal and spatial distribution patterns. The variations
in precipitation could be reflected by the different grades of precipitation,
and even by frequency changes in extreme precipitation events (Lau and Wu,
2007). Precipitation is not only influenced by atmospheric circulation
related to land–sea discrepancy and land–sea water vapor exchange but
also by local cloud microphysical processes. Atmospheric aerosols might
increase
cloud droplet number concentrations, change cloud lifetime, and modify
precipitation (Khain et al., 2005; Rosenfeld et al., 2007,
2008; Stevens and Feingold, 2009; Fan et al., 2013). Aerosols
might also change the Asian monsoon system (Bollasina et al., 2011). The
interaction of aerosols with cloud and precipitation is still an important issue
with large uncertainties for climate change (IPCC, 2013).
Since the mid-1980s, China has been experiencing rapid development in
industry and agriculture. As a result, a huge amount of anthropogenic
emissions and biomass burning have increasingly released particulate matter into
the atmosphere. There was no obvious change in annual precipitation in
China, but the extremely heavy rainfall area, mainly in eastern China (EC), has expanded
(Zhai et al., 1999). However, the regional annual precipitation, summer
precipitation, and extreme precipitation events have obvious rising
tendencies in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin of EC (Wang and Zhou, 2005).
The numerical simulations also showed that the increase in aerosols could
decrease the summer convective precipitation with an intensity under 30 mm h-1
and increase summer strong convective precipitation with an intensity
above 30 mm h-1 in China (Guo et al., 2014). With a rapid increase in
aerosols, not only light rain over wide areas could decrease but also extremely heavy local
rain could be triggered, inducing frequent flooding (Guo et
al., 2014; Fan et al., 2015). Light rain tended to decrease and at the same
time the extremely heavy precipitation tended to increase in EC
(Choi et al., 2008; Qian et al., 2007, 2009). This phenomenon
might be evidence of climate variability connected to global
warming together with increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols.
The previous investigations of this issue primarily focused on limited cases
with large discrepancies (Rosenfeld et al., 2007, 2008; Stevens and Feingold,
2009; Li et al., 2011; Fan et al., 2013). The climatic forcing of aerosols on
precipitation in a large-scale region and its physical causes have been
poorly understood. The long-term visibility data can be used to
climatologically assess the air quality change (Wang et al., 2009; Che et
al., 2009; Xia et al., 2006), as the atmospheric visibility is a good
indicator of air pollutant levels in the environmental atmosphere (Zhao et
al., 2016). By using precipitation and visibility data from a 50-year period
and aircraft and surface aerosol observational data from recent years in
China, the climatic impacts of aerosols on interannual variability in
precipitation intensity and its physical links were investigated in this
study. In addition, the high aerosol concentrations are accumulated in the
north–south direction over EC in connection with the terrain effect of the
Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Loess Plateau in China (Xu et al., 2016).The
polluted EC region and the clean plateaus in China may be the ideal places to
identify the climate forcing of aerosols by comparing the interannual
variation trends in precipitation intensity for exploring the relationship
between precipitation anomalies and aerosol variations.
Data
In this study, we used the classifications extraordinary storm, large rainstorm,
rainstorm, large rain, moderate rain and light rain with daily
precipitation > 200 and ranging between 100 and 200, 50 and 100, 25 and
50, 10 and 25, and 0.1 and 10 mm, respectively. The monthly data of
precipitation events of extraordinary storm, large rainstorm, rainstorm,
large rain, moderate rain, and light rain from 601 stations in China
from 1961 to 2010 were adopted from the National Meteorological Information
Center of the China Meteorological Administration. In addition, the
meteorological and environmental data including haze days, daily visibility
and low cloud cover in 1961–2010 as well as the daily PM2.5 data of
946 stations in 2013–2014 in China were also used in this study.
In order to analyze the regional variations in aerosols over EC, we adopt
the equivalent visibility by excluding the influence of natural factors
(Rosenfeld et al., 2007) on the observed visibility based on the
meteorological data in 1961–2010. The equivalent
visibility was corrected VIS (dry) based on the following Eq. (1) under
relative humidity from 40 to 90 %.
VISVIS(dry)=0.26+0.4285log(100-RH)
The vertical changes in aerosol and cloud droplet size were comprehensively
analyzed based on the aerosol–cloud data observed from aircraft flights over
Beijing and its surrounding regions during 2008–2010. The flight-observed
clouds were mainly stratus, stratocumulus and cumulus, and the
maximum detection altitude was 7000 m. There were 40 flights carried out in
2–6 h before precipitation. The flight area and tracks were shown in Fig. 1.
The passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP-200, DMT Co.) was used
for observing aerosol particle size of 0.1–0.3 µm. The cloud,
aerosol and precipitation spectrometer (CAPS, DMT Co.) was used for
observing cloud droplets of 0.6–50 µm. The probes were returned to the
DMT for standard calibration before starting measurements in each year. In
addition, the probes were calibrated using spheres of polystyrene latex (PSL)
from Duke Scientific Corporation for each month. Considering the
influence of cloud droplets on aerosol probing, the averaged aerosol
concentration below 300 m of cloud base was calculated to represent aerosol
concentration in clouds. The cloud droplet measurements were made within
clouds at 100 height intervals. The data were processed into two or more
samples when the clouds were multiply layered.
Area and tracks of 40 aircraft flights carried out in Beijing and
its surrounding regions during aerosol–cloud experiments from 2008 to 2010 by
the Beijing Weather Modification Office, China.
Haze distributions in eastern China
Due to the influence of the terrain on the typical westerly, the air flowing
from the windward plateaus descended between about 110 and 125∘ E
(panel (a) in Fig. 2). Accompanying this strong downward current were weak
winds in the near-surface layers. The wind condition leads to accumulating
air pollutants in EC. The weak wind and downward current areas coincide well
with the centers of frequent haze events in EC (panel (b) in Fig. 2). The
frequent haze pollution over EC is associated with the harbor effect of the
topography under specific meteorological conditions that trap air pollutants
(Xu et al., 2016). EC is climatologically a region with frequent haze events
over recent decades, and high aerosol pollution could exert an impact on the
regional variation in precipitation.
Change trends in precipitation intensity
The interannual variation in precipitation events with various
intensities of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, rainstorm, large
rainstorm and extraordinary rainstorm over EC were comparatively analyzed in
Fig. 3. Regionally averaged over EC, the trends in light rain frequency
significantly decreased, while the events of rainstorms, including large
and extraordinary storms, increased significantly (Fig. 3a). However, the
moderate rain frequency trend slightly declined, and the interannual change
trend of large rain frequency was not significant (Fig. 3a). Especially
since the 1980s, the extremely heavy precipitation events have become more
frequent, showing frequent occurrences of disastrous rainstorm along with
frequent haze in EC. Overall, extreme rainstorm events were on the rise, but light rain tended to decline significantly. In contrast, stations
on the TP with an altitude > 4000 m, a relative
clean area in China, were selected for a statistical analysis of interannual
variation trends in light rain frequency. The characteristic of the decreased
trend in light rain frequency has not been significant in the TP over recent
decades (Fig. 3b), which could imply that aerosol anomalies restrain light
rain frequency over EC.
Cross sections of vertical circulations illustrated by stream
lines (a) with the horizontal wind speed (m s-1; color
contours) and zonal variations in annual haze event frequency (b)
at 27–41∘ N averaged in spring, summer, autumn and
winter over 1961–2012. Note that near-surface vertical and horizontal winds
are not illustrated well here due to north–south variations in the terrain
and approximation of the location of the plateaus (black shaded area) in
panel (a). All fields are for the annual averages.
Interannual variations with their anomalies (broken lines) and
trends (straight lines) in (a) various precipitation intensities in the high
aerosol concentration area in the EC region and (b) light rain in the
relatively clean area of the Tibetan Plateau.
Distribution of interannual change trends (day per 10 years) in
(a) haze frequency, (b) visibility and (c) light rain frequency in summer in
mainland China in 1961–2010. The yellow dash lines mark the borders of
frequent haze areas or the eastern borders of plateaus in China.
The spatial distributions of (a) trends (day per 10 years) in
summertime rainstorm frequency over 1961–2010 in China and (b) correlation
coefficients between visibility and low cloud amount in summer of 1961–2010,
with the dashed yellow line marking the border of the negative correlation area.
(a) Percentages of stations with positive and negative
trends in number of day in various precipitation grades from 1961 to 2010
over the EC stations. The percentages of sites with negative frequency trends
in light rain and positive trends in rainstorm events in total sites with
positive (left side) and negative (right side) trends in haze over
(b) the EC and (c) TP regions during the three interdecadal
periods (1961–1980, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010). The arrows indicate the
interdecadal change patterns.
Regional changes in precipitation events, haze and visibility
We calculated the trends in interannual variations in precipitation and
visibility at all the sites in China (Fig. 4). The areas with negative
trends in light rain frequency matched quite well with the areas of negative
trends in visibility frequency and positive trends in haze frequency in EC (Fig. 4a–c).
The light rain frequency reduction in China was closely associated with the
enhancement of aerosol levels in the atmosphere (Qian et al., 2009).
It is noteworthy that the negative trend areas of light rain covered the
most sites in EC (Fig. 4c). This might also be closely related to temporal
and spatial variations in the East Asian summer monsoon, which offered a suitable
dynamic background for the effect of aerosols on clouds and precipitation.
Figure 5a shows that a spatial distribution of the trends in rainstorm
frequency was positive in the south and negative in the north in summer during 1961–2010,
while the correlations between visibility and low-level cloud
amount were distributed as positive in the north and negative in the south
in EC during 1961–2010 (Fig. 5b), indicating that the effect of
aerosols on summer convective precipitation was more obvious in the southern
part than in the northern part of EC.
There were obvious differences in the precipitation change rate of various
precipitation intensities in the EC region (Fig. 6a), where the negative
variability stations of light rain made up the majority (about 87.6 %),
the positive variability stations of moderate rain were approximately equal
to the negative ones (about 51 %) and the positive variability stations of
large rain (about 71.3 %) were much more than the negative ones, indicating
the reverse trend. The positive variability stations of rainstorm with daily
precipitation > 50 mm, including catastrophic rainstorms over 100 mm
occupied the obvious majority (about 78.9 %). The increase in the
anthropogenic aerosol particles in the atmosphere may suppress light rain
(Qian et al., 2009) and also enhance the rainstorm precipitation, with more
frequent events in EC. The regional precipitation changed from
less light rain to more heavy rain and even catastrophic
rainstorms, along with the frequent haze pollution in EC.
Although precipitation events depended on dynamical and thermodynamic
processes and a water vapor source in the atmosphere, the Albrecht effect of
aerosol with increasing cloud droplet concentrations and decreasing cloud
droplet size i could suppress cloud precipitation processes and extend
cloud lifetime. The extension of the cloud lifetime might save the potential
for triggering the abnormal extreme severe precipitation events. This
mechanism could partly explain the precipitation degrading from light rain to
extreme severe events (Fig. 6a) in the polluted EC region. Furthermore, the
region (west of 110∘ E, south of 40∘ N) of TP, a relative
clean area in western China, was selected as the reference area to
comparatively analyze the effects of aerosol pollution on regional
precipitation change in hazy EC. We calculated percentages of sites with
negative frequency trends in light rain and positive trends in rainstorm
events for all sites, with the positive and negative trends in haze over the
EC and TP regions during the three interdecadal periods (1961–1980,
1971–2000 and 1981–2010) (Fig. 6b–c). Over the past 5 decades or more,
light rain and rainstorms were receptively steady, declined and augmented in
the polluted EC (Fig. 6b), while there were no
obvious positive and negative variability trends in light rain and rainstorms
in the clean TP region (Fig. 6c).
Interannual anomalies between visibility and precipitation
Figure 7 further verified the relation between interannual variability in
regional visibility and precipitation in EC over recent years. Regionally
averaged, less light rain events and more rainstorms varied significantly
from year to year in association with enhanced aerosol levels with declining
visibility over EC (Fig. 7a–d). Taking summer months (June,
July and August) as examples, the 20-year running correlation coefficients
of visibility and precipitation were presented in Fig. 7e. It is very
interesting that the interannual variations in visibility and precipitation
over EC evolved from positive correlations in the early 1960s to
negative correlations in the 1970s and 1980s (Fig. 7e), reflecting the
interannual variation in the aerosol and precipitation interaction in changing climate.
Correlation between summer average visibility (June–August)
with light rain frequency (a) in 1961–1990, (b) light rain frequency
in 1981–2010, (c) extremely heavy rain event frequency in 1961–1990 and
(d) extreme heavy rain event frequency in 1981–2010; (e) the 20-year running
correlation coefficients of visibility and precipitation over EC with a
dashed
line standing for when the correlation passes the confidence level of 90 %.
Monthly anomalies of number of days with (a) visibility, (b) light
rain, (c) heavy rain and (d) extremely heavy rain from 1961 to 2010 averaged
over EC. The red rectangles mark the areas with significant changes.
Light rain frequency distribution of 601 stations in China in July
of 2013. The circled region on the right is the low-frequency light rain region
in the middle and downstream regions in EC, and the circled region on the left is the
high-frequency light rain region in the relatively clean region over the TP.
In order to investigate the interannual variations in monthly correlation
pattern between regional visibility with light rain and extreme
precipitation events in EC, we illustrated the cross section of monthly
anomalies of visibility and number of days with light rain and rainstorms, in
Fig. 8. Through a comprehensive comparison of Fig. 8a–d, we
could find significant positive correlation between visibility and light
rain, indicating that the poor visibility suppressed light rain frequency.
Moreover, there was a significant difference between the changing extreme
rainstorm and light precipitation occurrences. The changes in large and
extraordinary rainstorm frequency from the 1960s to the 1980s were not as prominent
as those during the latter period of the 1990s, during which time visibility
deteriorated remarkably and heavy and extremely heavy rainstorms occurred
frequently. Compared to other seasons, the influence effect of poor summer
visibility was more significant in EC, showing disastrous summertime
rainfalls happening more often, with less light rain over recent years.
The increased atmospheric aerosol concentration may reduce the solar
radiation to the surface and decrease surface temperature, forming a
temperature inversion structure (Bollasina et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2009;
Bond et al., 2011, 2013; Grant and van den Heever, 2014; Seinfeld, 2008). This temperature inversion structure with the stability of the
atmospheric boundary layer provides an important condition for the frequent
occurrence of haze events. The stable low-level structure also inhibits the
weak convection development of the atmospheric boundary layer, reducing the
formation of low-level clouds and weak precipitation process. However, the
strong dynamic convergence disturbance could destroy the stability of the
atmospheric boundary layer and cause the formation and development of severe
rainstorms.
To further clarify the relationship between aerosols and light rain frequency,
the light rain frequency distribution from 601 stations in July 2013 is
displayed (Fig. 9). The light rain events have significantly declined in EC
with high aerosol concentrations but enhanced in the relative clean
TP region (Fig. 9).
To reveal the relationship between aerosols and vertical atmospheric thermal
structure, the correlation between surface PM2.5 concentrations and
atmospheric thermal structure in both polluted and clean areas in July 2013
was investigated (Fig. 10). The stations of Changsha and Hongjia located in
Hunan and Zhejiang provinces in EC, respectively, were selected to represent
the less light rain region, while those of Nyingchi and Dingri on the TP were
selected to represent the high-frequency light rain region. The correlation
coefficient profiles between the observed surface daily PM2.5
concentration and atmospheric temperature profiles derived from
high-resolution L-band sounding were calculated. The correlations at
Changsha and Hongjia stations (Fig. 10a and b) show that the correlation between
PM2.5 and temperature profiles presented an inverse phase pattern,
reflecting the high aerosol concentrations in a thermal stable structure
similar to temperature inversion layers, with cold at low layers and warm at
upper layers in EC. Conversely, the correlations at the Nyingchi and
Dingri stations on the TP (Fig. 10c and d) indicate that an unstable atmospheric
structure with warm at low layers and cold at upper layers is a favorable
condition for the occurrence and development of convection and light rain
events in the TP.
Correlation coefficient profiles between the surface PM2.5
concentration (12 h intervals) and atmospheric temperature from L-band
soundings for representing low-frequency light rain regions at stations of
(a) Changsha and (b) Hongjia in EC, and for representing high-frequency
light rain regions in relatively clean areas at stations in (c) Nyingchi and
(d) Dingri over the TP with correlation coefficients of 0.21, 0.25
and 0.32,
passing the confidence level of 90, 95 and 99 %.
The vertical profiles of (a) sampling cloud droplet size
detected by 40 aircraft, and (b) changes in number of diameters of
cloud droplets under low and high aerosol number concentrations.
Physical connection between aerosols and precipitation
According to the results of observation and modeling studies, increased
aerosol concentrations could reduce effective particle radius and increase
number concentration of cloud droplets (Khain et al., 2005; Van den Heever
et al., 2006; Tao et al., 2007; Altaratz et al., 2014). The increase in
cloud droplet concentrations would delay raindrop formation, thereby
lessening light precipitation (Qian et al., 2009) for a negative
correlation between aerosols and light precipitation in China (Choi et al., 2008).
In order to further confirm the relationship between aerosols and cloud
droplets, the cloud droplet data observed by aircraft in northern China
during 2008–2010 were used. The vertical profiles of cloud droplets under different
aerosol states obtained by 40 aircraft are shown in Fig. 11. The
Albrecht cloud lifetime effect of aerosols was significant in northeastern
China (Fig. 11a and b). Under the background of high aerosol concentrations, the cloud
droplet sizes were smaller and increased slowly with the increasing
altitude (red profile in Fig. 11b). In addition, from the cloud base to
2000 m, the cloud droplet size remained less than 20 µm
(Fig. 11b),
resulting in precipitation delay, and cloud system development, easily
forming heavy rain. Cloud droplet diameter enlarged quickly with the
increase in height and easily reached 30 µm to form light rain at
1000 m altitude under low aerosol concentrations (green profile in Fig. 11b).
The aircraft observation analysis showed that high aerosol concentrations
could reduce cloud droplet size, increase cloud droplet concentrations and
extend cloud lifetime, which could all restrict the light rain process.
Discussion and conclusions
Aerosols have complicated effects on clouds and precipitation, depending on
many factors such as aerosol properties, topography and meteorological
conditions. Most previous investigations of aerosol impacts on clouds
and precipitation are primarily based on limited cases on relatively small
spatial and temporal scales. The climate forcing of aerosols on
precipitation in large-scale regions and physical causes remain uncertain. By
using precipitation and visibility data from more than 50 years and aircraft and
surface aerosol data from recent years in China, the impacts of aerosol
variations on interannual variability in various precipitation intensities
of precipitation events and their physical causes are investigated.
Accompanied with the frequent haze events in EC, the light rain frequency
trend significantly decreased. Especially since the 1980s, extremely
heavy precipitation events have occurred more frequently, with an obvious
transform from more light rain to more frequent heavy rain and rainstorms. In
the 1960s, the monthly visibility and light rain presented a significantly
positive correlation, while the visibility was in good condition. In the last
30 years, dramatically increased aerosols resulted in poor visibility,
light rain frequency decreased obviously, and heavy and extremely
heavy rain occurred more frequently.
The investigation of the relationship between aerosol concentrations and light rain
frequency distributions in July 2013 in China shows that the light
rain appeared significantly low in frequency in the EC region with high aerosol
concentrations, but appeared with a high frequency in the relatively clean region of
the Tibetan Plateau. High aerosol concentrations were
strongly correlated to low-level atmospheric warming, forming a stable
structure that suppressed the occurrence and development of light rain events in
EC. The aircraft measurements over EC confirmed that the diameters of
cloud droplets decreased under high aerosol concentration conditions, thereby
inhibiting weak precipitation processes.
The findings from this study have important implications for aerosol and
precipitation interactions. The frequent haze events in EC not only cause
regional environmental deterioration but also induce long-term change in
regional water cycle, which effects regional climate change.
No data sets were used in this article.
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of
China (91644223), the National Key R&D Program Pilot Projects of China
(2016YFC0203304 and 2016YFC0203305), and the project for environmental
protection (201509001) in the public interest.
Edited by: Aijun Ding
Reviewed by: two anonymous referees
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