<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing with OASIS Tables v3.0 20080202//EN" "journalpub-oasis3.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:oasis="http://docs.oasis-open.org/ns/oasis-exchange/table" dtd-version="3.0"><?xmltex \makeatother\@nolinetrue\makeatletter?>
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Atmos. Chem. Phys.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>

    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-16-3969-2016</article-id><title-group><article-title>Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site,<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> north of eastern
China</article-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{Z.~Ma et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Zhiqiang</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Jing</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Quan</surname><given-names>Weijun</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1704-6385</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Ziyin</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Weili</given-names></name>
          <email>linwl@camscma.cn</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0711-6378</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff4">
          <name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Xiaobin</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4321-9267</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,
Beijing, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,
Chinese Meteorological Administration,<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Beijing, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Meteorological Observation Centre, China Meteorological Administration,
Beijing, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of
Meteorological Sciences,<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Beijing, China</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Weili Lin (linwl@camscma.cn)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>24</day><month>March</month><year>2016</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>16</volume>
      <issue>6</issue>
      <fpage>3969</fpage><lpage>3977</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>6</day><month>September</month><year>2015</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>13</day><month>November</month><year>2015</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>11</day><month>March</month><year>2016</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>14</day><month>March</month><year>2016</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.html">This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/.pdf</self-uri>


      <abstract>
    <p>Ozone pollution in eastern China has become one of the top environmental
issues. Quantifying the temporal trend of surface ozone helps to assess the
impacts of the anthropogenic precursor reductions and the likely effects of
emission control strategies implemented. In this paper, ozone data collected
at the Shangdianzi (SDZ) regional atmospheric background station from 2003 to
2015 are presented and analyzed to obtain the variation in the trend of
surface ozone in the most polluted region of China, north of eastern China or
the North China Plain. A modified Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ) filter method was
performed on the maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8) concentrations of ozone to
separate the contributions of different factors from the variation of surface
ozone and remove the influence of meteorological fluctuations on surface
ozone. Results reveal that the short-term, seasonal and long-term components
of ozone account for 36.4, 57.6 and 2.2 % of the total variance,
respectively. The long-term trend indicates that the MDA8 has undergone a
significant increase in the period of 2003–2015, with an average rate of
1.13 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.01 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.92</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). It is found that
meteorological factors did not significantly influence the long-term
variation of ozone and the increase may be completely attributed to changes
in emissions. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between the
long-term O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> trends. This study suggests that emission
changes in VOCs might have played a more important role in the observed
increase of surface ozone at SDZ.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

      <?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>Tropospheric ozone (O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plays a key role in the oxidizing capacity of
the atmosphere (Penkett, 1988) and acts as a greenhouse gas in terms of
radiative forcing at the Earth's surface (IPCC, 2013). Moreover, it is an important precursor of the OH
radical, hence changes in its abundance can exert indirect radiative forcing
by altering the lifetimes of some other greenhouse gases. Tropospheric
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> originates from photochemical production within the troposphere and
the downward transport of stratospheric O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (Cooper et al., 2014; Monks
et al., 2015). Ground-level O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> is subject to in situ chemical reactions
and physical processes and is directly affected by precursor emissions,
temperature, solar radiation and other meteorological factors.</p>
      <p>Observations (Oltmans et al., 2006) and model simulations (Hauglustaine and
Brasseur, 2003) indicate that ground-level O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> increased distinctly at
northern mid-latitudes during the latter half of the 20th century, which is
qualitatively in agreement with the increasing anthropogenic emissions of
precursors. Anthropogenic emissions of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> precursors have been declining
in Europe and North America while increasing in East Asia (Streets et al.,
2001; Granier et al., 2011). The largest increase in NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
(NO <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions is found in China and appears to have continued
into the 21st century based on emission inventories (Streets et al., 2001;
Richter et al., 2005; Ohara et al., 2007; Mijling et al., 2013; Kurokawa et
al., 2013). From 1990 to 2010, surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in different regions showed
inconsistent trends. In the eastern US, surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> was found to decrease
strongly in summer, remain largely unchanged in spring and increase in winter,
while O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> increases in the western US were the strongest in spring (Monks
et al., 2015). In East Asia, surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> was generally found to be
increasing (Cooper et al., 2014). For example, ground-level O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
Northeast Asia region, e.g., Japan (Lee et al., 1998) and Hong Kong (Chan et
al., 2003; Wang et al., 2009)
increased significantly from the 1990s to 2000s. Enhanced variability of
surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, particularly an increasing trend in the monthly highest
5 % of the ozone mixing ratios, was reported for the Yangtze River Delta
region in eastern China (Xu et al., 2008).</p>
      <p>Dynamic factors may contribute to the long-term variations of surface
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>. For example, the long-term increase of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> was found to
be related to the variability in the stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (Ordonez et al., 2007; Hess and Zbinden, 2013; Lin et al., 2015a) and
changes in transport patterns (Pausata et al., 2012). Decadal circulation
shifts played a key role in the autumnal ozone increase and the absence of
spring ozone change measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory (3.4 km altitude) over
the subtropical Pacific Ocean in the period of 1974–2012 (Lin et al., 2014).
However, some studies (Brown-Steiner and Hess, 2011; Parrish et al., 2012;
Lin et al., 2012; Oltmans et al., 2013; Derwent et al., 2015; Verstraeten et
al., 2015) attribute the increase of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in some areas mainly to the
transport of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and related pollutants from the continental China, where
the emissions of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> precursors (NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and VOC) have steadily increased
(Ohara et al., 2007; Kurokawa et al., 2013). Studies by Lin et al. (2015b)
indicate that mean springtime ozone level over western North America in the
most recent decade has increased by 5.9 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1 ppbv compared to the
1980s, which could be attributed in part to rising Asian ozone precursor
emissions and global methane. Because of increasing emissions of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
precursors due to the sustained economic growth in China (Zhang et al.,
2007), fueled by favorable photochemical conditions, China has likely being
experiencing severe photochemical pollution. Due to this industrialization,
increases are expected in some regions. Limited studies have
indicated this is indeed the case. Ding et al. (2008) analyzed O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> data
from the MOZAIC (measurement of ozone and water vapor by Airbus in-service
aircraft) program and obtained a 2 % year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> rate of increase in the daytime O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the lower
troposphere over Beijing and its surrounding areas for the period of
1995–2005. Xu and Lin (2011) analyzed the TOR (tropospheric ozone residue) data over the
period 1979–2005 and found a significant upward trend in tropospheric
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> over the North China Plain for all seasons except for winter, with a
maximum rate of increase of 1.10 DU per decade for summer. Wang et
al. (2009) found that surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at a regional station in Hong Kong
increased at an average rate of 0.58 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> from 1994 to 2007 and
they associated the trend with an increase in tropospheric NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p>Information regarding the trends in surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in the
different regions of China, particularly those with high anthropogenic
emissions rates, is urgently needed. Due to a lack of long-term observations,
it is difficult to gain reliable results about the long-term trends of
surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in various regions of China. Recently, the long-term trend of
surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in western China was reported by Xu et al. (2015), based on
the observations at the Mt. Waliguan baseline station. So far, there has been
no report of changes of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> levels in highly polluted eastern
China during the recent decade. In this paper, we present trends in surface
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the North China Plain, based on the measurements from a rural
site. The relative contributions of meteorological factors and anthropogenic
emissions are investigated, which provide further insight into the
potential causes of the observed trend of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <title>Data and methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <title>Site and measurements</title>
      <p>Surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and ancillary data were collected at the Shangdianzi (SDZ,
40.65<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, 117.10<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 293.3 m a.s.l.) station. SDZ is one
of the regional Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) stations, located about 100 km
northeast of suburban of Beijing. The 30 km radius surrounding the site
contains only small villages with a sparse population and insignificant
anthropogenic emission sources. The observation facilities are situated on
the south slope of a hill, which is surrounded by mountainous areas except in
the southwest sector. Fruit trees and corn are grown in the fields
surrounding the site. Previous studies (Lin et al., 2008; Xu et al., 2009)
suggest that the observations of pollutants at SDZ reflect the regional-scale
air quality of North China.</p>
      <p>The maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8) concentrations of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> were
calculated from hourly averages of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> from October 2003 to June 2015 and
are used in the following analysis. To facilitate the analysis, ambient
NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration and temperature measured at SDZ in the surface layer
during the same time period were processed to obtain daily averages. Details
of the observations and the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC)
procedures were described by Lin et al. (2008).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <title>Analysis methods</title>
      <p>It is well known that meteorology plays an important role in ozone formation
and transport. Ground-level ozone concentrations are strongly influenced by
fluctuations of meteorological parameters. Therefore, it is difficult to
distinguish the trend of ozone related to the change in emissions from that
related to meteorological impacts. In order to filter out or minimize the
influence of meteorology on ozone levels, a method called
Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ) filter (Rao and Zurbenko, 1994) is used to
separate data into short-term, seasonal and long-term variations. The KZ
filter is based on an iterative moving average that removes high frequency
variations in the data. The method is briefly described below.</p>
      <p>The KZ(<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) filter is defined as <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> applications of a moving average of <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> points. The moving average can be expressed as

                <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><mml:math display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:munderover><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>2<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>1, and the calculated <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> becomes the input for the second
pass, and so on.</p>
      <p>Data filtered by the KZ filter preserve information related to physical
processes, whereas data treated by some other techniques may remove unwanted
information, but at the same time distort phenomena of interest. Eskridge et
al. (1997) compared the KZ filter method with several others, such as wavelet
transform, anomalies, etc. and demonstrated that the KZ filter has the same
level of accuracy as the wavelet transform method. In addition, the magnitude
of the long-term trend estimated by the KZ filter provides estimates with
approx. 10 times higher confidence than the other methods. However, the width
moving average (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the KZ filter with wide windows will dampen sharp
breaks of variations. Based on the KZ filter, an adaptive filter was
developed by Zurbenko et al. (1996), which dynamically adjusts the width of
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> according to the rate of change of the process. As the rate of change
increases, the <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> decreases. The modified KZ filter method is applied in
this paper. More details on this method can be found in Zurbenko et
al. (1996).</p>
      <p>Rao et al. (1997) developed a method to separate different phenomena present
in time series of both meteorological and ozone data, which have different
characteristics such as long-term and short-term variations. Following the
method, it is assumed that the time series of ozone can be partitioned as

                <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><mml:math display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the original time series, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the mesoscale and
synoptic-scale variation, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the seasonal change, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the
long-term (trend) component. Rao et al. (1997) found that when KZ<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>15</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
and KZ<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>365</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> filters are applied to the raw data, several influences
could be removed and the actual variation of ozone at different scales would
be obtained. <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> can be calculated using the following
formulae.

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E3"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>KZ</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mn>15</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E4"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>KZ</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mn>15</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>KZ</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mn>365</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E5"><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>KZ</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mn>365</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

            The Rao et al. (1997) method was implemented in this work.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <title>Results and discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <title>General characteristics of yearly ozone distribution</title>
      <p>Yearly MDA8 statistics were calculated for 2004–2015 and are presented in
Fig. 1. Since the ozone observation at SDZ commenced in October 2003, no
reliable yearly MDA8 statistics can be obtained. It is noted that data from
2015 cover only the first 6 months. Although only the first 6 months records
in 2015 are used for the statistics, the maximum of the MDA8 values in this
year exceeded 160 ppb, only second to that in 2012. The yearly average of
MDA8 varied from 49.3 to 60.2 ppb during 2004–2014, with a highly
significant positive trend (1.05 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.14 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.93</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0001). We also observed a similar fluctuation of the median value
within the range of 43.3 to 53.0 ppb, with a positive trend
(0.62 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.20 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.72</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.05) from 2004
to 2014. The MDA8 level was relatively stable during 2004–2006, with a
maximum of approx. 120 ppb. However, the annual maximum value exhibited a
dramatic increase from 123 ppb in 2006 to 165 ppb in 2015. This increase
coincided with an increase of in the size of the vehicle fleet in eastern
China. For example, in Beijing, the number of registered vehicles was 2.30
million in 2004, 2.88 million in 2006, 4.81 million in 2010, and 5.60 million
in 2014 (<uri>http://www.bjjtgl.gov.cn/jgj/ywsj/index.html</uri>). Both the
maximum O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> value and the vehicle number increased dramatically in the
period 2004–2015. Nevertheless, it is not possible to derive a reliable
long-term trend in the median or maximum value solely from the data shown in
Fig. 1, nor can we directly attribute the observed changes in surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
to the increase in vehicles.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1"><caption><p>Percentile-box plot of yearly statistics of MDA8 values of ozone at
SDZ, in the period of 2004–2015. Boxes depict interquartile range and median;
the squares depict the mean; whiskers depict 10th and 90th percentile; dots
depict maximum values.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2"><caption><p>Separated time series of MDA8 values of ozone at SDZ:
<bold>(a)</bold> the original data; <bold>(b)</bold> the short-term component,
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; <bold>(c)</bold> the seasonal component, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; <bold>(d)</bold> the
long-term component, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

<?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <title>Ozone time series separated by KZ filter</title>
      <p>The ozone time series (MDA8 value) from the SDZ site was separated using the
method described in Sect. 2.2. Figure 2 shows the original time series of
MDA8 values (Fig. 2a) and the time series of the separated short-term,
seasonal and long-term components (Fig. 2b–d). The original MDA8 exhibits a
distinct seasonal variation, with an overlapping of high-frequency noises
(Fig. 2a). Removing the short-term component (Fig. 2b) leads to clearer seasonal
cycles shown in Fig. 2c. As can be seen in Fig. 2c, there are evident double
peaks of ozone during summer in each year, which are not so obvious in the
original time series (Fig. 2a). Generally, the double peaks occur in June and
September, respectively, and the dip in between occurs in July or August when
relatively abundant rainfall damps ozone formation and accumulation. Under
the influence of the summer Asian monsoon, rainfall in July and August at SDZ
can amount to more than 40 % of the annual rainfall. Figure 2c also
demonstrates some irregularities in the seasonal cycle, particularly the
year-to-year changes in the levels of annual maximum, annual minimum and the
dip between the double peaks. The seasonal fluctuations have to be accurately
removed to get the long-term trend, as data for the trend analysis are
required to be independent of season and normally distributed. The short-term
component (Fig. 2b) showed high frequency variations, ranging between
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>60 and 70 ppb, which are composed of noise (or fluctuation) caused
by mesoscale and synoptic-scale meteorological processes. Synoptic-scale
events have a timescale from 2 days to 3 weeks, which could be removed by
smoothing with the KZ filter for a window size of 15 days and five iterations.
To further illustrate the short-term component, a quantile–quantile (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) plot
of <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is presented in Fig. 3. The <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> plot indicates that <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> basically
obeys a normal distribution, with a mean value of 0.002 ppb, suggesting that
the KZ<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>15</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> filter effectively removed <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p>Through the previous steps and using the Eqs. (2)–(5), we obtained the
long-term trend of MDA8 at SDZ, as shown in Fig. 2d. This long-term trend
reveals a rapid increase of the daily high value of surface ozone at the SDZ
site in the last decade. It is noteworthy that the increase is not at a
stable rate but with large inter-annual variations. Linear regression (not
shown) indicates that the average increase rate during 2004–2015 was
1.13 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.01 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.92</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Previous work by Ding
et al. (2008) using MOZAIC data obtained a yearly increase of 2 % (about
1 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the boundary layer around Beijing in the
period of 1995–2005, which agrees well with our result. Therefore, the
greater Beijing area, probably the North China Plain, has been suffering a
rapid ozone increase for the last 2 decades.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3"><caption><p><inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>–<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> plot of the short-term component <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for ozone.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p>In view of the air pollution problems, the central government of China issued
a revised National Ambient Air Quality Standard (CNAAQS, GB 3095-2012) in
2012, which has taken effect across the country since 1 January 2016 and sets
the MDA8 O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> limits to 100 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (46.7 ppb) and
160 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>g m<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (74.7 ppb) for national reserve areas and
residence/commercial areas, respectively. As can be seen in Fig. 2a, O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
exceedance would occur quite often in the warm seasons if the new CNAAQS had
been implemented.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4"><caption><p>Separated time series of daily mean values of temperature at SDZ:
<bold>(a)</bold> the original data; <bold>(b)</bold> the short-term component,
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; <bold>(c)</bold> the seasonal component, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; <bold>(d)</bold> the
long-term component, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p>We also examined the contributions of different components to the total
variance of MDA8, which was calculated from the unfiltered data. The
contributions of the short-term and seasonal components to the total variance
are about 36.4 and 57.6 %, respectively. The long-term component accounts
for only 2.2 % of the total variance. The covariance terms amount to less
than 4 % of the total variance, indicating an effective separation of
different components. The long-term component makes only a much smaller
contribution than the other two components, confirming the necessity to
clearly separate the short-term and seasonal variations from the data to
obtain the long-term trend.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <title>Cause analysis</title>
      <p>The long-term trend of the ozone concentration can be caused by the changes
of both pollutant emissions and related meteorological variables. Climate
variability and circulation shifts may lead to long-term changes of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
as discussed in Lin et al. (2014; 2015a, b). To assess the influence of
precursor emissions on the ozone trend, the meteorological and chemical
impacts have to be separated. However, both meteorological and chemical
impacts are complicated, not to mention the interactions among meteorology,
precursor emissions and photochemical reactions. Therefore, a clear
separation of meteorological and chemical impacts is hardly possible purely
based on observational data. Nevertheless, apportionment of the O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> trend
to precursor emissions and other causes are worthy of further study.</p>
      <p>Although many meteorological variables can influence the photochemical
formation of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, the prevailing variable is temperature. The increase of
temperature can speed up the photochemical reactions, strengthen the
emissions of biogenic VOCs and reduce wind speed, among others (Lin et al., 2001;
NRC, 1991; Pusede et al., 2015). In certain regions, temperature is also
closely related to the intensity of solar radiation, which plays a critical
role in the photochemical formation of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>. Thus, we took temperature as
a key meteorological parameter and investigated the relationship between
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and temperature, with the hope to obtain the influence of emission
changes on the long-term trend of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>. The initial step was to divide the
time series of temperature into three components in Eq. (2), just as done for
that of MDA8 (Fig. 2). The results of the different components of temperature
are given in Fig. 4. Unlike the trend of MDA8 of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, the long-term
component for temperature at SDZ shows a slight decrease trend (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.015</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) (Fig. 4d) and this long-term component accounts only for 0.16 %
of the total variance of temperature.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5"><caption><p>Results of the daily mean temperature and the MDA8 value of ozone
after the application of the KZ<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>15</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> filter to the original time series. The
results indicate the sum of the seasonal and long-term components.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6"><caption><p>Linear regression fit on the filtered daily maxima of temperature
and ozone. Temperature data are lagged by 17 days to ozone data.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p>The unfiltered data of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and temperature are less correlated (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0001), presumably due to the strong influence of the
short-term component. Figure 5 compares the derived seasonal cycles of the
daily mean temperature (from Fig. 4c) and the MDA8 of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (from Fig. 2c).
A similarity is evident between both seasonal cycles. However, there is also
a distinct phase lag of the seasonal cycle between O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and temperature,
due to the influence of other processes on the O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> level. Rao et
al. (1995) found a similar phase lag of about 3 weeks in the data from the
northeastern United States. In our case, the linear correlation between
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and temperature becomes the strongest (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.83</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0001) when the temperature data are lagged by 17 days (Fig. 6).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7"><caption><p>Time series of the noise-free and temperature-independent ozone. The
red line is a linear fit and the blue lines are the 95 % confidence
prediction band.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p>When only considering the influence of temperature, the seasonal and
long-term components of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> could account for 93 % of the total
variance at the Cliffside Park, New Jersey (Rao and Zurbenko, 1994), while in
our case, it accounts for just 83 % (see <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in Fig. 6). We tried to
add more meteorological factors that could affect O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> production, such as
solar radiation and relative humidity. However, the correlation was
improved by no more than 0.5 %. This implies that the changes in
emissions might have a more important influence on surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at SDZ
than at Cliffside Park. This view is consistent with the rapid increases
in anthropogenic emissions in China (particularly the North China Plain)
during the last decade (Mijling et al., 2013).</p>
      <p>Assuming that the residual of the total variance of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, after subtracting
the contribution related with temperature, was all caused by pollutant
emissions, the long-term trend of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, attributable to changes in
emissions, can be determined by performing a linear regression between time
and the noise-free, temperature-independent O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> values (<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which are derived using Eq. (6):

                <disp-formula id="Ch1.E6" content-type="numbered"><mml:math display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>17</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>O</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the filtered O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>17</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
the filtered temperature lagged by 17 days, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> are fitted
parameters, <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the residual of the relationship. Here,
<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ε</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reveals the changes in ozone attributable to changes in
emissions.</p>
      <p>Figure 7 shows the time series of the noise-free and temperature-independent
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is basically equal to the long-term component of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> only
under the influence of emission changes. Most of the data in Fig. 7 are
within a 95 % confidence interval band except for some special cases in
the summer months. In summer, temperature is not the dominant restricting
factor for O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> production compared to other factors, such as rainfall and
precursor concentrations. Substantial negative influences occurring in 2005
and 2006 can be explained by stronger impact of Asian summer monsoon on
surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (Lin et al., 2008). The results in Fig. 7 indicate that the
influence of emission has been varying substantially but with an average
increase rate of 1.19 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.03 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. This increase rate is
very close to the average long-term trend of MDA8 of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
(1.13 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.01 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) in Fig. 2d, implying that the increase
of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the period of 2003–2015 could be mainly attributed to the
emission changes and that the meteorological factors had only a tiny negative
influence. Jaffe and Ray (2007) also found that the temperature change had
little influence on long-term ozone trends in the western US.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8"><caption><p>Long-term trends of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and the MDA8 ozone value calculated by
KZ<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mn>365</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>3.</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula></p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3969/2016/acp-16-3969-2016-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p>Some studies suggested that the trends of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at the similar
latitude as SDZ could be attributed partly to the reduced titration by NO
(Chou et al., 2006; Itano et al., 2007). In order to assess the effect of
changing NO titration on the long-term trend of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, we examined the
long-term measurements of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at SDZ in the period of 2004–2015. A
comparison of the long-term trend of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> with that of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>, which was
also extracted using the previous methods, is displayed in Fig. 8. The
evolution of the NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> trend can be divided into three stages, i.e., a
substantial decrease of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> occurring during the first 3 years, followed
by a small increase in the period of 2007–2010 and finally a gradual
decrease in the period of 2011–2015. The large decrease of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
period of 2004–2006 corresponded to the control of coal consumption around
Beijing, especially for the Olympic Games in 2008 (Zhang et al., 2010; Gao et
al., 2011) and to the relocation of the Capital Steel and Iron Company, which
was one of the largest industrial sources in Beijing. The NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> increase
from 10.2 to 13.5 ppb between 2007 and 2010 corresponded with the rapid
increase in the number of vehicles in Beijing from 3.1 million to 4.8 million
(<uri>http://www.bjjtgl.gov.cn/jgj/ywsj/index.html</uri>). From 2011 to 2015, the
new standards for vehicle emissions and measures for reduction of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
emission from power plants were implemented, which may have helped to reduce
the NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration. The long-term trends of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>
given in Fig. 7 do not show any coincidence. Therefore, it is nearly
impossible that the reduced NO titration had led to the increase of surface
O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at SDZ. Previous studies (Ge et al., 2010; 2012) showed that the
ozone production efficiency at SDZ varied in values from 0.2 to 21.1, with an
average of 4.9, implying that ozone formation at SDZ could be more sensitive
to VOCs than to NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>. Accordingly, we believe that the changes of VOC
emissions and the ratio of VOCs to NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> might have caused the increase of
surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> observed at SDZ. Unfortunately, no systematic VOC
observations are available from the SDZ site so that we cannot prove this
supposition conclusive. However, a large increase in the anthropogenic
emissions of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) can be inferred from the
Multiresolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC)
(<uri>http://www.meicmodel.org</uri>) for Beijing in the period of 2004–2012,
which supports our view, although the emission data are questioned by a
recent study (Wang et al., 2015).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4" sec-type="conclusions">
  <title>Summary</title>
      <p>We separated the time series of maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8)
concentration of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> observed at SDZ in the period of 2003–2015
into various spectral components using a modified KZ filter. This separation
has led to a better understanding of the variation of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at the
site and its relationships with the meteorological and precursor variables,
enabling us to unravel the trend of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> from the original data containing
noises and seasonality, and to estimate the contribution of changes of
precursor emissions to the trend. Our analysis reveals that the short-term,
seasonal and long-term components of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> data from the SDZ site
accounted for 36.4, 57.6 and 2.2 % of the total variance, respectively.</p>
      <p>It is found that the MDA8 of O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> at the site north of eastern China has
undergone a significant increase in the period of 2003–2015, at an average
rate of 1.13 <inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.01 ppb year<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Together with the reported
yearly increase rate of 2 % in the lower tropospheric O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> around
Beijing in the period of 1995–2005 (Ding et al., 2008), we conclude that the
north part of eastern China (i.e., the North China Plain) may have been
suffering a rapid increase in the O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> level for at least 2 decades. By
eliminating the influence of air temperature, we found that the observed
increase of surface O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> in the period of 2003–2015 was mainly induced by
the emission changes, and the meteorological factors exerted only a tiny
negative influence. Our result also indicates that the change of VOC
emissions might have played a more important role in the O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> increase
than the effect of NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p>Because fine particulate pollution has been very severe in eastern China, the
central government of China has implemented several measures to control
PM<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn>2.5</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> pollution, including reductions of both NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and VOCs. This,
however, risks further O<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> increases as a VOCs to NO<inline-formula><mml:math display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> ratio more
favorable to ozone production may be reached. Thus, further studies are
needed to trace the ozone trend and its influence in eastern China.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p>The authors would like to thank the staff of the Shangdianzi station for
their excellent work. This research is supported by the National Science
Foundation of China (41475135, 41330422), Beijing Natural Science Foundation
(8132025, 8152018), CCSF201505. We also thank the referees and editor for
their constructive suggestions.<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?><?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Edited by:
J. B. Burkholder</p></ack><ref-list>
    <title>References</title>

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    <!--<article-title-html>Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site, north of eastern
China</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p class="p">Ozone pollution in eastern China has become one of the top environmental
issues. Quantifying the temporal trend of surface ozone helps to assess the
impacts of the anthropogenic precursor reductions and the likely effects of
emission control strategies implemented. In this paper, ozone data collected
at the Shangdianzi (SDZ) regional atmospheric background station from 2003 to
2015 are presented and analyzed to obtain the variation in the trend of
surface ozone in the most polluted region of China, north of eastern China or
the North China Plain. A modified Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ) filter method was
performed on the maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8) concentrations of ozone to
separate the contributions of different factors from the variation of surface
ozone and remove the influence of meteorological fluctuations on surface
ozone. Results reveal that the short-term, seasonal and long-term components
of ozone account for 36.4, 57.6 and 2.2 % of the total variance,
respectively. The long-term trend indicates that the MDA8 has undergone a
significant increase in the period of 2003–2015, with an average rate of
1.13 ± 0.01 ppb year<sup>−1</sup> (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.92). It is found that
meteorological factors did not significantly influence the long-term
variation of ozone and the increase may be completely attributed to changes
in emissions. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between the
long-term O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> trends. This study suggests that emission
changes in VOCs might have played a more important role in the observed
increase of surface ozone at SDZ.</p></abstract-html>
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