ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP Atmos. Chem. Phys. 1680-7324 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-13-9183-2013 A global model study of the impact of land-use change in Borneo on atmospheric composition Warwick N. J. 1 2 Archibald A. T. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9302-4180 1 2 Ashworth K. 3 10 Dorsey J. 1 4 Edwards P. M. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1076-6793 5 Heard D. E. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0357-6238 1 6 Langford B. 7 Lee J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5397-2872 1 8 Misztal P. K. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-1750 7 9 11 Whalley L. K. 1 6 Pyle J. A. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3629-9916 1 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, NCAS, UK Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 3PL, UK ESRL, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA School of Chemistry, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, EH26 OQB, UK Department of Chemistry, University of York, Heslington, UK Department of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK now at: KIT, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahn Str. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany now at: Deparment of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkerley, CA 94720, USA 16 09 2013 13 18 9183 9194 Copyright: © 2013 N. J. Warwick et al. 2013 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/9183/2013/acp-13-9183-2013.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/9183/2013/acp-13-9183-2013.pdf

In this study, a high resolution version of the Cambridge p-TOMCAT chemical transport model is used, along with measurement data from the 2008 NERC-funded Oxidant and Particle Photochemical Processes (OP3) project, to examine the potential impact of the expansion of oil palm in Borneo on atmospheric composition. Several model emission scenarios are run for the OP3 measurement period, incorporating emissions from both global datasets and local flux measurements. Using the OP3 observed isoprene fluxes and OH recycling chemistry in p-TOMCAT substantially improves the comparison between modelled and observed isoprene and OH concentrations relative to using MEGAN isoprene emissions without OH recycling. However, a similar improvement was also achieved without using HO<sub>x</sub> recycling, by fixing boundary layer isoprene concentrations over Borneo to follow the OP3 observations. An extreme hypothetical future scenario, in which all of Borneo is converted to oil palm plantation, assessed the sensitivity of the model to changes in isoprene and NO<sub>x</sub> emissions associated with land-use change. This scenario suggested a 70% upper limit on surface ozone increases resulting from land-use change on Borneo, excluding the impact of future changes in emissions elsewhere. Although the largest changes in this scenario occurred directly over Borneo, the model also calculated notable regional changes of O<sub>3</sub>, OH and other species downwind of Borneo and in the free troposphere.

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