ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP Atmos. Chem. Phys. 1680-7324 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-13-10969-2013 A sensitivity study of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere to cloud-microphysics and aerosol parameters in the community atmosphere model CAM5 Zhao C. 1 Liu X. 1 3 Qian Y. 1 Yoon J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4939-8078 1 Hou Z. 1 Lin G. 1 McFarlane S. 1 4 Wang H. 1 Yang B. 1 2 Ma P.-L. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3109-5316 1 Yan H. 1 Bao J. 1 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China now at: Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA now at: US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA 08 11 2013 13 21 10969 10987 Copyright: © 2013 C. Zhao et al. 2013 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/10969/2013/acp-13-10969-2013.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/10969/2013/acp-13-10969-2013.pdf

In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of net radiative fluxes (FNET) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) to 16 selected uncertain parameters mainly related to the cloud microphysics and aerosol schemes in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). We adopted a quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling approach to effectively explore the high-dimensional parameter space. The output response variables (e.g., FNET) are simulated using CAM5 for each parameter set, and then evaluated using the generalized linear model analysis. In response to the perturbations of these 16 parameters, the CAM5-simulated global annual mean FNET ranges from −9.8 to 3.5 W m<sup>−2</sup> compared to 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> with the default parameter values. Variance-based sensitivity analysis is conducted to show the relative contributions of individual parameter perturbations to the global FNET variance. The results indicate that the changes in the global mean FNET are dominated by changes in net cloud forcing (CF) within the parameter ranges being investigated. The threshold size parameter related to auto-conversion of cloud ice to snow is identified as one of the most influential parameters for FNET in CAM5 simulations. The strong heterogeneous geographic distribution of FNET variance shows that parameters have a clear localized effect over regions where they are acting. However, some parameters also have non-local impacts on FNET variance. Although external factors, such as perturbations of anthropogenic and natural emissions, largely affect FNET variance at the regional scale, their impact is weaker than that of model internal parameters in terms of simulating global mean FNET. The interactions among the 16 selected parameters contribute a relatively small portion to the total FNET variance over most regions of the globe. This study helps us better understand the parameter uncertainties in the CAM5 model, and thus provides information for further calibrating uncertain model parameters with the largest sensitivity.

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