ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP Atmos. Chem. Phys. 1680-7324 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-709-2012 Aerosol-cloud-precipitation effects over Germany as simulated by a convective-scale numerical weather prediction model Seifert A. 1 Köhler C. 1 2 Beheng K. D. 3 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre,Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Karlsruhe, Germany 16 01 2012 12 2 709 725 Copyright: © 2012 A. Seifert et al. 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/12/709/2012/acp-12-709-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/12/709/2012/acp-12-709-2012.pdf

Possible aerosol-cloud-precipitation effects over Germany are investigated using the COSMO model in a convection-permitting configuration close to the operational COSMO-DE. Aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation are modeled by using an advanced two-moment microphysical parameterization taking into account aerosol assumptions for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) as well as ice nuclei (IN). Simulations of three summer seasons have been performed with various aerosol assumptions, and are analysed regarding surface precipitation, cloud properties, and the indirect aerosol effect on near-surface temperature. We find that the CCN and IN assumptions have a strong effect on cloud properties, like condensate amounts of cloud water, snow and rain as well as on the glaciation of the clouds, but the effects on surface precipitation are – when averaged over space and time – small. This robustness can only be understood by the combined action of microphysical and dynamical processes. On one hand, this shows that clouds can be interpreted as a buffered system where significant changes to environmental parameters, like aerosols, have little effect on the resulting surface precipitation. On the other hand, this buffering is not active for the radiative effects of clouds, and the changes in cloud properties due to aerosol perturbations may have a significant effect on radiation and near-surface temperature.

 References Albrecht, B.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, 1989. Alpert, P., Halfon, N., and Levin, Z.: Does air pollution really suppress precipitation in {Israel}?, J.&nbsp;Appl.&nbsp;Meteorol., 47, 933–943, 2008. Ayers, G. and Levin, Z.: Air pollution and precipitation, in: Clouds in the perturbed climate system, edited by Heintzenberg, J. and Charlson, R., 369–400, The MIT Press, 2009. Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., and Raschendorfer, M.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: description and sensitivities, Mon.&nbsp;Weather&nbsp;Rev., 139, 3887–3905, 2011. Blahak, U.: Towards a better representation of high density ice particles in a state-of-the-art two-moment bulk microphysical scheme, in: Proc.&nbsp;15th Int.&nbsp;Conf.&nbsp;Clouds and Precip., Cancun, Mexico, 2008. Borys, R., Lowenthal, D., and Cohn, S.: Mountaintop and radar measurements of anthropogenic aerosol effects on snow growth and snowfall rate, Geophys.&nbsp;Res.&nbsp;Lett., 30, 1538, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016855, 2003. Cotton, W.: Modification of precipitation from warm clouds – a review, B.&nbsp;Am.&nbsp;Meteorol.&nbsp;Soc., 63, 146–160, 1982. Cotton, W.: Weather and climate engineering, in: Clouds in the perturbed climate system, edited by: Heintzenberg, J. and Charlson, R., 369–400, The MIT Press, 2009. Edwards, J.&nbsp;M., Havemann, S., Thelen, J.&nbsp;C., and Baran, A.&nbsp;J.: A new parametrization for the radiative properties of ice crystals: Comparison with existing schemes and impact in a GCM, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 83, 19–35, 2007. Eidhammer, T., DeMott, P.&nbsp;J., and Kreidenweis, S.&nbsp;M.: A comparison of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations using a parcel model framework, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 114, D06202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011095, 2009. Eidhammer, T., DeMott, P.&nbsp;J., Prenni, A.&nbsp;J., Petters, M.&nbsp;D., Twohy, C.&nbsp;H., Rogers, D.&nbsp;C., Stith, J., Heymsfield, A., Wang, Z., Pratt, K.&nbsp;A., Prather, K.&nbsp;A., Murphy, S.&nbsp;M., Seinfeld, J.&nbsp;H., Subramanian, R., and Kreidenweis, S.&nbsp;M.: Ice Initiation by Aerosol Particles: Measured and predicted ice nuclei concentrations versus measured ice crystal concentrations in an orographic wave cloud, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 67, 2417–2436, 2010. Fan, J., Yuan, T., Comstock, J.&nbsp;M., Ghan, S., Khain, A., Leung, L.&nbsp;R., Li, Z., Martins, V.&nbsp;J., and Ovchinnikov, M.: Dominant role by vertical wind shear in regulating aerosol effects on deep convective clouds, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 114, D22206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012352, 2009. Feingold, G. and Siebert, H.: Cloud-aerosol interactions from the micro to the cloud scale, in: Clouds in the perturbed climate system: their relationship to energy balance, atmospheric dynamics, and precipitation, edited by: Heintzenberg, J. and Charlson, R. J., 319–338, 2009. Garstang, M., Bruintjes, R., Serafin, R., Orville, H., Boe, B., Cotton, W., and Warburton, J.: Weather modification: finding common ground, B.&nbsp;Am.&nbsp;Meteorol.&nbsp;Soc., 86, 647–655, 2005. Gebhardt, C., Theis, S., Paulat, M., and Ben&nbsp;Bouallegue, Z.: Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 100, 168–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.008, 2010. Grabowski, W. and Smolarkiewicz, P.: CRCP: a cloud resolving convection parameterization for modeling the tropical convecting atmosphere, Phys. D, 133, 171–178, 1999. Grabowski, W., Wu, X., Moncrieff, M., and Hall, W.: Cloud-resolving modeling of cloud systems during phase III of GATE. Part II: fffects of resolution and the third spatial dimension, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 55, 3264–3282, 1998. Grabowski, W.&nbsp;W. and Morrison, H.: Indirect impact of atmospheric aerosols in idealized simulations of convective-radiative quasi equilibrium. Part II: double-moment microphysics, J.&nbsp;Climate, 24, 1897–1912, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3647.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3647.1</a>, 2011. Hu, Y. and Stamnes, K.: An accurate parameterization of the radiative properties of water clouds suitable for use in climate models, J.&nbsp;Climate, 6, 728–742, 1993. Kärcher, B. and Lohmann, U.: A parameterization of cirrus cloud formation: Homogeneous freezing of supercooled aerosols, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 107, 4010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000470, 2002. Kärcher, B., Hendricks, J., and Lohmann, U.: Physically based parameterization of cirrus cloud formation for use in global atmospheric models, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 111, D01205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006219, 2006. Khain, A., Pokrovsky, A., and Sednev, I.: Some effects of cloud-aerosol interaction on cloud microphysics structure and precipitation formation: Numerical experiments with a spectral microphysics cloud ensemble model, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 52, 195–220, 1999. Khain, A., Rosenfeld, D., and Pokrovsky, A.: Aerosol impact on the dynamics and microphysics of deep convective clouds, Q.&nbsp;J.&nbsp;Roy.&nbsp;Meteorol.&nbsp;Soc., 131, 2639–2663, 2005. Khairoutdinov, M. and Randall, D.: A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in the NCAR community climate system model: preliminary results, Geophys.&nbsp;Res.&nbsp;Lett., 28, 3617–3620, 2001. Koren, I., Kaufman, Y., Rosenfeld, D., Remer, L., and Rudich, Y.: Aerosol invigoration and restructuring of Atlantic convective clouds, Geophys.&nbsp;Res.&nbsp;Lett., 32, L14828, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023187, 2005. Levin, Z. and Cotton, W.: Aerosol pollution impact on precipitation: a scientific review, Springer, Heidelberg, WMO and IUGG Report, 2008. Lohmann, U.: A glaciation indirect aerosol effect caused by soot aerosols, Geophys.&nbsp;Res.&nbsp;Lett., 29, 1052, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014357, 2002. Lohmann, U. and Feichter, J.: Global indirect aerosol effects: a review, Atmos.&nbsp;Chem.&nbsp;Phys., 5, 715–737, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-715-2005">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-715-2005</a>, 2005. Lohmann, U. and Hoose, C.: Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds, Atmos.&nbsp;Chem.&nbsp;Phys., 9, 8917–8934, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8917-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8917-2009</a>, 2009. Majewski, D., Liermann, D., Prohl, P., Ritter, B., Buchhold, M., Hanisch, T., Paul, G., Wergen, W., and Baumgardner, J.: The operational global Icosahedral-Hexagonal Gridpoint Model GME}: {description and high-resolution tests, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 139, 319–338, 2002. Morrison, H. and Grabowski, W.&nbsp;W.: Cloud-system resolving model simulations of aerosol indirect effects on tropical deep convection and its thermodynamic environment, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10503–10523, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10503-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10503-2011</a>, 2011. Noppel, H., Blahak, U., Seifert, A., and Beheng, K.&nbsp;D.: Simulations of a hailstorm and the impact of CCN using an advanced two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 96, 286–301, 2010. Pfeifer, M., Yen, W., Baldauf, M., Craig, G., Crewell, S., Fischer, J., Hagen, M., Huehnerbein, A., Mech, M., Reinhardt, T., Schroeder, M., and Seifert, A.: Validating precipitation forecasts using remote sensor synergy: A case study approach, Meteorol.&nbsp;Zeitschr., 19, 601–617, 2010. Phillips, V. T.&nbsp;J., DeMott, P.&nbsp;J., and Andronache, C.: An empirical parameterization of heterogeneous ice nucleation for multiple chemical species of aerosol, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 65, 2757–2783, 2008. Rosenfeld, D. and Givati, A.: Evidence of orographic precipitation suppression by air pollution-induced aerosols in the western United States, J.&nbsp;Appl.&nbsp;Meteorol., 45, 893–911, 2006. Segal, Y. and Khain, A.: Dependence of droplet concentration on aerosol conditions in different cloud types: Application to droplet concentration parameterization of aerosol conditions, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 111, D15204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006561, 2006. Seifert, A.: A note on the shape-slope relation of the drop size distribution in convective rain, J.&nbsp;Appl.&nbsp;Meteorol., 44, 1146–1151, 2005. Seifert, A.: On the parameterization of evaporation of raindrops as simulated by a one-dimensional rainshaft model, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 65, 3608–3619, 2008. Seifert, A. and Beheng, K.: A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part I: m}odel description, Meteorol.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Phys., 92, 45–66, 2006{a. Seifert, A. and Beheng, K.: A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part II: m}aritime vs. continental deep convective storms, Meteorol.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Phys., 92, 67–88, 2006{b. Seifert, A. and Beheng, K.&nbsp;D.: A double-moment parameterization for simulating autoconversion, accretion and selfcollection, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 59-60, 265–281, 2001. Seifert, A. and Stevens, B.: Microphysical scaling relations in a kinematic model of isolated shallow cumulus clouds, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 67, 1575–1590, 2010. Seifert, A. and Zängl, G.: Scaling relations in warm-rain orographic precipitation, Meteorol.&nbsp;Zeitschr., 19, 417–426, 2010. Seifert, A., Khain, A., Pokrovsky, A., and Beheng, K.&nbsp;D.: A comparison of spectral bin and two-moment bulk mixed-phase microphysics, Atmos.&nbsp;Res., 80, 46–66, 2006. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., eds.: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. contribution of working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, chap. 7.5.2, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007. Sorooshian, A., Feingold, G., Lebsock, M.&nbsp;D., Jiang, H., and Stephens, G.&nbsp;L.: On the precipitation susceptibility of clouds to aerosol perturbations, Geophys.&nbsp;Res.&nbsp;Lett., 36, L13803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038993, 2009. Sorooshian, A., Feingold, G., Lebsock, M.&nbsp;D., Jiang, H., and Stephens, G.&nbsp;L.: Deconstructing the precipitation susceptibility construct: Improving methodology for aerosol-cloud precipitation studies, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 115, D17201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013426, 2010. Stephan, K., Klink, S., and Schraff, C.: Assimilation of radar-derived rain rates into the convective-scale model COSMO-DE at DWD, Q.&nbsp;J.&nbsp;Roy.&nbsp;Meteorol.&nbsp;Soc., 134, 1315–1326, 2008. Steppeler, J., Doms, G., Sch{ä}ttler, U., Bitzer, H., Gassmann, A., Damrath, U., and Gregoric, G.: Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM, Meteorol.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Phys., 82, 75–96, 2003. Stevens, B. and Feingold, G.: Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system, Nature, 461, 607–613, 2009. Tao, W.-K., Chern, J.-D., Atlas, R., Randall, D., Khairoutdinov, M., Li, J.-L., Waliser, D.&nbsp;E., Hou, A., Lin, X., Peters-Lidard, C., Lau, W., Jiang, J., and Simpson, J.: A multiscale modeling system: developments, applications, and critical issues, B.&nbsp;Am.&nbsp;Meteorol.&nbsp;Soc., 90, 515–534, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2542.1, 2009. Teller, A. and Levin, Z.: The effects of aerosols on precipitation and dimensions of subtropical clouds: a sensitivity study using a numerical cloud model, Atmos.&nbsp;Chem.&nbsp;Phys., 6, 67–80, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-67-2006">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-67-2006</a>, 2006. Tiedtke, M.: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models, Mon.&nbsp;Weather&nbsp;Rev., 117, 1779–1800, 1983. van&nbsp;den Heever, S.&nbsp;C., Stephens, G.&nbsp;L., and Wood, N.&nbsp;B.: Aerosol indirect effects on tropical convection characteristics under conditions of radiative convective equilibrium, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 68, 699–718, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3603.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3603.1</a>, 2011. van&nbsp;den Heever, S.&nbsp;C., Carrio, G.&nbsp;G., Cotton, W.&nbsp;R., DeMott, P.&nbsp;J., and Prenni, A.&nbsp;J.: Impacts of nucleating aerosol on Florida storms. Part I: Mesoscale simulations, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 63, 1752–1775, 2006. Vogel, B., Vogel, H., Baeumer, D., Bangert, M., Lundgren, K., Rinke, R., and Stanelle, T.: The comprehensive model system COSMO-ART – Radiative impact of aerosol on the state of the atmosphere on the regional scale, Atmos.&nbsp;Chem.&nbsp;Phys., 9, 8661–8680, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8661-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8661-2009</a>, 2009. Wang, M., Ghan, S., Easter, R., Ovchinnikov, M., Liu, X., Kassianov, E., Qian, Y., Gustafson, Jr., W.&nbsp;I., Larson, V.&nbsp;E., Schanen, D.&nbsp;P., Khairoutdinov, M., and Morrison, H.: The multi-scale aerosol-climate model PNNL-MMF: model description and evaluation, Geosci.&nbsp;Model&nbsp;Dev., 4, 137–168, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-137-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-137-2011</a>, 2011. Wicker, L.&nbsp;J. and Skamarock, W.&nbsp;C.: Time-splitting methods for elastic models using forward time schemes, Mon.&nbsp;Weather&nbsp;Rev., 130, 2088–2097, 2002. Xue, H., Feingold, G., and Stevens, B.: Aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and the organization of shallow cumulus convection, J.&nbsp;Atmos.&nbsp;Sci., 65, 392–406, 2008. Zubler, E.&nbsp;M., Folini, D., Lohmann, U., Mühlbauer, A., Pousse-Nottelmann, S., Schär, C., and Wild, M.: Implementation and evaluation of aerosol and cloud microphysics in a regional climate model, J.&nbsp;Geophys.&nbsp;Res., 116, D02211, https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2010JD014572, 2011.