ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP Atmos. Chem. Phys. 1680-7324 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012 Modelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach Wild O. 1 Fiore A. M. 2 Shindell D. T. 3 Doherty R. M. 4 Collins W. J. 5 Dentener F. J. 6 Schultz M. G. 7 Gong S. 8 MacKenzie I. A. 4 Zeng G. 9 Hess P. 10 Duncan B. N. 11 Bergmann D. J. 12 Szopa S. 13 Jonson J. E. 14 Keating T. J. 15 Zuber A. 16 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY, USA School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy IEK-8, Forschungszentrum-Jülich, Germany Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA Atmospheric Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA, USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Office of Policy Analysis and Review, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C., USA European Commission, Directorate General Environment, Brussels, Belgium 21 02 2012 12 4 2037 2054 Copyright: © 2012 O. Wild et al. 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/12/2037/2012/acp-12-2037-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/12/2037/2012/acp-12-2037-2012.pdf

This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The method successfully reproduces the results of full simulations with these models. For a given emission scenario it provides the ensemble mean surface ozone change, a regional source attribution for each change, and an estimate of the associated uncertainty as represented by the variation between models. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios as an example, we show how regional surface ozone is likely to respond to emission changes by 2050 and how changes in precursor emissions and atmospheric methane contribute to this. Surface ozone changes are substantially smaller than expected with the SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, with annual global mean reductions of as much as 2 ppb by 2050 vs. increases of 4–6 ppb under SRES, and this reflects the assumptions of more stringent precursor emission controls under the RCP scenarios. We find an average difference of around 5 ppb between the outlying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, about 75% of which can be attributed to differences in methane abundance. The study reveals the increasing importance of limiting atmospheric methane growth as emissions of other precursors are controlled, but highlights differences in modelled ozone responses to methane changes of as much as a factor of two, indicating that this remains a major uncertainty in current models.

 References Akimoto, H.: Global air quality and pollution, Science, 302, 1716–1719, 2003. Brown-Steiner, B. and Hess, P.: Asian influence on surface ozone in the United States: a comparison of chemistry, seasonality and transport mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17309, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015846">https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015846</a>, 2011. Collins, B., Sanderson, M.&nbsp;G., and Johnson, C.&nbsp;E.: Impact of increasing ship emissions on air quality and deposition over Europe by 2030, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, 25–39, 2008. Dentener, F., Stevenson, D., Ellingsen, K., van Noije, T., Schultz, M., Amann, M., Atherton, C., Bell, N., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Bouwman, L., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, B., Drevet, J., Doherty, R., Eickhout, B., Eskes, H., Fiore, A., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Isaksen, I.&nbsp;S.&nbsp;A., Josse, B., Lawrence, M., Krol, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Montanaro, V., Müller, J.-F., Pauch, V.&nbsp;H., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J., Sanderson, M., Savage, N.&nbsp;H., Shindell, D., Strahan, S., Szopa, S., Sudo, K., Van Dingenen, R., Wild, O., and Zeng, G.: The global atmospheric environment for the next generation, Environ. Sci. Technol., 40, 3586–3594, 2006. Derwent, R.&nbsp;G., Simmonds, P.&nbsp;G., Manning, A.&nbsp;J., and Spain, T.&nbsp;G.: Trends over a 20-year period from 1987 to 2007 in surface ozone at the atmospheric research station, Mace Head, Ireland, Atmos. Environ., 41, 9091–9098, 2007. Doherty, R.&nbsp;M., Shindell, D.&nbsp;T., Zeng, G., Wild, O., Collins, W.&nbsp;J., Stevenson, D.&nbsp;S., MacKenzie, I.&nbsp;A., Fiore, A.&nbsp;M., Dentener, F.&nbsp;J., Hess, P., Schultz, M.&nbsp;G., Derwent, R.&nbsp;G., and Keating, T.&nbsp;J.: The impact of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental transport of ozone in a multi-model study, J. Geophys. Res., submitted, 2012. Fiore, A.&nbsp;M., West, J.&nbsp;J., Horowitz, L.&nbsp;W., Naik, V., and Schwarzkopf, M.&nbsp;D.: Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08307, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009162">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009162</a>, 2008. Fiore, A.&nbsp;M., Dentener, F.&nbsp;J., Wild, O., Cuvelier, C., Schultz, M.&nbsp;G., Hess, P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., Doherty, R.&nbsp;M., Horowitz, L.&nbsp;W., MacKenzie, I.&nbsp;A., Sanderson, M.&nbsp;G., Shindell, D.&nbsp;T., Stevenson, D.&nbsp;S., Szopa, S., Van Dingenen, R., Zeng, G., Atherton, C., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Carmichael, G., Collins, W.&nbsp;J., Duncan, B.&nbsp;N., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Gauss, M., Gong, S., Hauglustaine, D., Holloway, T., Isaksen, I.&nbsp;S.&nbsp;A., Jacob, D.&nbsp;J., Jonson, J.&nbsp;E., Kaminski, J.&nbsp;W., Keating, T.&nbsp;J., Lupu, A., Marmer, E., Montanaro, V., Park, R.&nbsp;J., Pitari, G., Pringle, K.&nbsp;J., Pyle, J.&nbsp;A., Schroeder, S., Vivanco, M.&nbsp;G., Wind, P., Wojcik, G., Wu, S., and Zuber, A.: Multi-model estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04301, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010816">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010816</a>, 2009. Grewe, V., Tsati, E., and Hoor, P.: On the attribution of contributions of atmospheric trace gases to emissions in atmospheric model applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 487–499, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-487-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-487-2010</a>, 2010. Hess, P. G. and Zbinden, R.: Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 22719–22770, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-22719-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-22719-2011</a>, 2011. Jacob, D.&nbsp;J., and Winner, D.&nbsp;A.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051</a>, 2009. Jonson, J. E., Simpson, D., Fagerli, H., and Solberg, S.: Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 51–66, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-51-2006">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-51-2006</a>, 2006. Kawase, H., Nagashima, T., Sudo, K., and Nozawa, T.: Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05801, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046402">https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046402</a>, 2011. Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010</a>, 2010. Lamarque, J.-F., Kyle, G.&nbsp;P., Meinshausen, M., Riahi, K., Smith, S.&nbsp;J., van Vuuren, D.&nbsp;P., Conley, A.&nbsp;J., and Vitt, F.: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways, Climatic Change, 109, 191–212, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0</a>, 2011. Lelieveld, J. and Dentener, F.&nbsp;J.: What controls tropospheric ozone?, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 3531–3551, 2000. Lin, X., Trainer, M., and Liu, S.&nbsp;C.: On the nonlinearity of the tropospheric ozone production, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 15879–15888, 1988. Masui, T., Matsumoto, K., Hijioka, Y., Kinoshita, T., Nozawa, T., Ishiwatari, S., Kato, E., Shukla, P.&nbsp;R., Yamagata, Y., and Kainuma, M.: An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 W m<sup>−2</sup> radiative forcing, Climatic Change, 109, 59–76, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5</a>, 2011. Mickley, L.&nbsp;J., Jacob, D.&nbsp;J., Field, B.&nbsp;D., and Rind, D.: Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, L24103, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021216">https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021216</a>, 2004. Murazaki, K. and Hess, P.: How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States?, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05301, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005873">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005873</a>, 2006. Oltmans, S.&nbsp;J, Lefohn, A.&nbsp;S., Harris, J.&nbsp;M., Galbally, I, Scheel, H.&nbsp;E., Bodeker, G., Brunke, E., Claude, H., Tarasick, D., Johnson, B.&nbsp;J., Simmonds, P., Shadwick, D., Anlauf, K., Hayden, K., Schmidlin, F., Fujimoto, T., Akagi, K., Meyer, C., Nichol, S., Davies, J., Redondas, A., and Cuevas, E.: Long-term changes in tropospheric ozone, Atmos. Environ., 40, 3156–3173, 2006. Prather, M.&nbsp;J.: Timescales in atmospheric chemistry: Theory, GWPs for CH<sub>4</sub> and CO, and runaway growth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2597–2600, 1996. Prather, M., Gauss, M., Berntsen, T., Isaksen, I., Sundet, J., Bey, I., Brasseur, G., Dentener, F., Derwent, R., Stevenson, D., Grenfell, L., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Jacob, D., Mickley, L., Lawrence, M., von Kuhlmann, R., Müller, J.-F., Pitari, G., Rogers, H., Johnson, M., Pyle, J., Law, K., van Weele, M., and Wild, O.: Fresh air in the 21st century?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1100, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016285">https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016285</a>, 2003. Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., and Rafaj, P.: RCP 8.5 – A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109, 33–57, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y</a>, 2011. Sanderson, M.&nbsp;G., Dentener, F.&nbsp;J., Fiore, A.&nbsp;M., Cuvelier, C., Keating, T.&nbsp;J., Zuber, A., Atherton, C.&nbsp;S., Bergmann, D.&nbsp;J., Diehl, T., Doherty, R.&nbsp;M., Duncan, B.&nbsp;N., Hess, P., Horowitz, L.&nbsp;W., Jacob, D.&nbsp;J., Jonson, J.&nbsp;E., Kaminski, J.&nbsp;W., Lupu, A., MacKenzie, I.&nbsp;A., Mancini, E., Marmer, E., Park, R., Pitari, G., Prather, M.&nbsp;J., Pringle, K.&nbsp;J., Schroeder, S., Schultz, M.&nbsp;G., Shindell, D.&nbsp;T., Szopa, S., Wild, O., and Wind, P.: A multi-model study of the hemispheric transport and deposition of oxidised nitrogen, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17815, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035389">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035389</a>, 2008. Shindell, D. T., Chin, M., Dentener, F., Doherty, R. M., Faluvegi, G., Fiore, A. M., Hess, P., Koch, D. M., MacKenzie, I. A., Sanderson, M. G., Schultz, M. G., Schulz, M., Stevenson, D. S., Teich, H., Textor, C., Wild, O., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Bian, H., Cuvelier, C., Duncan, B. N., Folberth, G., Horowitz, L. W., Jonson, J., Kaminski, J. W., Marmer, E., Park, R., Pringle, K. J., Schroeder, S., Szopa, S., Takemura, T., Zeng, G., Keating, T. J., and Zuber, A.: A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5353–5372, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5353-2008">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5353-2008</a>, 2008. Sudo, K. and Akimoto, H.: Global source attribution of tropospheric ozone: Long-range transport from various source regions, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12302, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007992">https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007992</a>, 2007. Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP): Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2007, Air Pollut. Stud. 16, edited by: Keating, T. J. and Zuber, A., UNECE, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: <a href="http://www.htap.org/">http://www.htap.org/</a>, 2007. Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP): Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2010, Air Pollut. Stud. 17, edited by: Dentener, F., Keating, T., and Akimoto, H., UNECE, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: <a href="http://www.htap.org/">http://www.htap.org/</a>, 2010. Thomson, A.&nbsp;M., Calvin, K.&nbsp;V., Smith, S.&nbsp;J., Kyle, G.&nbsp;P., Volke, A., Patel, P., Delgado-Arias, S., Bond-Lamberty, B., Wise, M.&nbsp;A., Clarke, L.&nbsp;E., and Edmonds, J.&nbsp;A.: RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, 109, 77–94, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4</a>, 2011. van Vuuren, D.&nbsp;P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M.&nbsp;G.&nbsp;J., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., Deetman, S., Isaac, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hof, A., Mendoza Beltran, A., Oostenrijk, R., and van Ruijven, B.: RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2\degree C, Climatic Change, 109, 95–116, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3</a>, 2011. Vautard, R., Szopa, S., Beekmann, M., Menut, L., Hauglustaine, D.&nbsp;A., Rouil, L., and Roemer, M.: Are decadal anthropogenic emission reductions in Europe consistent with surface ozone observations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13810, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026080">https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026080</a>, 2006. Wild, O., Prather, M.&nbsp;J., and Akimoto, H.: Indirect long-term global cooling from NO<sub>x</sub> emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1719–1722, 2001. Wild, O., Sundet, J.&nbsp;K., Prather, M.&nbsp;J., Isaksen, I.&nbsp;S.&nbsp;A., Akimoto, H., Browell, E.&nbsp;V., and Oltmans, S.&nbsp;J.: CTM Ozone Simulations for Spring 2001 over the Western Pacific: Comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes and TOMS columns, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8826, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003283">https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003283</a>, 2003. Wu, S., Duncan, B.&nbsp;N., Jacob, D.&nbsp;J., Fiore, A.&nbsp;M., and Wild, O.: Chemical nonlinearities in relating intercontinental ozone pollution to anthropogenic emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05806, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036607">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036607</a>, 2009.