ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP Atmos. Chem. Phys. 1680-7324 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-8171-2011 Detection from space of a reduction in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides during the Chinese economic downturn Lin J.-T. 1 McElroy M. B. 2 Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA 10 08 2011 11 15 8171 8188 Copyright: © 2011 J.-T. Lin 2011 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/8171/2011/acp-11-8171-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/8171/2011/acp-11-8171-2011.pdf

Rapid economic and industrial development in China and relatively weak emission controls have resulted in significant increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>) in recent years, with the exception of late 2008 to mid 2009 when the economic downturn led to emission reductions detectable from space. Here vertical column densities (VCDs) of tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> retrieved from satellite observations by SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI (both by KNMI and by NASA) are used to evaluate changes in emissions of NO<sub>x</sub> from October 2004 to February 2010 identifying impacts of the economic downturn. Data over polluted regions of Northern East China suggest an increase of 27–33 % in 12-month mean VCD of NO<sub>2</sub> prior to the downturn, consistent with an increase of 49 % in thermal power generation (TPG) reflecting the economic growth. More detailed analysis is used to quantify changes in emissions of NO<sub>x</sub> in January over the period 2005–2010 when the effect of the downturn was most evident. The GEOS-Chem model is employed to evaluate the effect of changes in chemistry and meteorology on VCD of NO<sub>2</sub>. This analysis indicates that emissions decreased by 20 % from January 2008 to January 2009, close to the reduction of 18 % in TPG that occurred over the same interval. A combination of three independent approaches indicates that the economic downturn was responsible for a reduction in emissions by 9–11 % in January 2009 with an additional decrease of 10 % attributed to the slow-down in industrial activity associated with the coincident celebration of the Chinese New Year; errors in the estimate are most likely less than 3.4 %.

 References Acarreta, J. R., De Haan, J. F., and Stammes, P.: Cloud pressure retrieval using the O$^{-}_2$-O$^{-}_2$ absorption band at 477 nm, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05204, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003915">https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003915</a>, 2004. Bertram, T. H., Thornton, J. A., Riedel, T. P., Middlebrook, A. M., Bahreini, R., Bates, T. S., Quinn, P. K., and Coffman, D. J.: Direct observations of N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> reactivity on ambient aerosol particles, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19803, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040248">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040248</a>, 2009. Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., and Brinksma, E. J.: Error analysis for tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> retrieval from space, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D04311, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003962">https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003962</a>, 2004. Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Veefkind, J. P., Brinksma, E. J., van der A, R. J., Sneep, M., van den Oord, G. H. J., Levelt, P. F., Stammes, P., Gleason, J. F., and Bucsela, E. J.: Near-real time retrieval of tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> from OMI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2103–2118, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2103-2007">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2103-2007</a>, 2007. Boersma, K. F., Jacob, D. J., Bucsela, E. J., Perring, A. E., Dirksen, R., van der A, R. J., Yantosca, R. M., Park, R. J., Wenig, M. O., Bertram, T. H., and Cohen, R. C.: Validation of OMI tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> observations during INTEX-B and application to constrain NO<sub>x</sub> emissions over the eastern United States and Mexico, Atmos. Environ., 42, 4480–4497, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.02.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.02.004</a>, 2008. Boersma, K. F., Jacob, D. J., Trainic, M., Rudich, Y., DeSmedt, I., Dirksen, R., and Eskes, H. J.: Validation of urban NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and their diurnal and seasonal variations observed from the SCIAMACHY and OMI sensors using in situ surface measurements in Israeli cities, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3867–3879, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-3867-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-3867-2009</a>, 2009. Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Dirksen, R. J., van der A, R. J., Veefkind, J. P., Stammes, P., Huijnen, V., Kleipool, Q. L., Sneep, M., Claas, J., Leitão, J., Richter, A., Zhou, Y., and Brunner, D.: An improved tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> column retrieval algorithm for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., 4, 2329–2388, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amtd-4-2329-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-4-2329-2011</a>, 2011. Brown, S. S., Dube, W. P., Fuchs, H., Ryerson, T. B., Wollny, A. G., Brock, C. A., Bahreini, R., Middlebrook, A. M., Neuman, J. A., Atlas, E., Roberts, J. M., Osthoff, H. D., Trainer, M., Fehsenfeld, F. C., and Ravishankara, A. R.: Reactive uptake coefficients for N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> determined from aircraft measurements during the Second Texas Air Quality Study: Comparison to current model parameterizations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00F10, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011679">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011679</a>, 2009. Bucsela, E. J., Perring, A. E., Cohen, R. C., Boersma, K. F., Celarier, E. A., Gleason, J. F., Wenig, M. O., Bertram, T. H., Wooldridge, P. J., Dirksen, R., and Veefkind, J. P.: Comparison of tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> from in situ aircraft measurements with near-real-time and standard product data from OMI, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16S31, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007jd008838">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd008838</a>, 2008. China Statistical Yearbook 2009, China Statistics Press, Beijing, China, 2009. Dirksen, R. J., Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Ionov, D. V., Bucsela, E. J., Levelt, P. F., and Kelder, H. M.: Evaluation of stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument: Intercomparison, diurnal cycle, and trending, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D08305, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014943">https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014943</a>, 2011. Evans, M. J. and Jacob, D. J.: Impact of new laboratory studies of N2O5 hydrolysis on global model budgets of tropospheric nitrogen oxides, ozone, and OH, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L09813, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022469">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022469</a>, 2005. Hains, J. C., Boersma, K. F., Kroon, M., Dirksen, R. J., Cohen, R. C., Perring, A. E., Bucsela, E., Volten, H., Swart, D. P. J., Richter, A., Wittrock, F., Schoenhardt, A., Wagner, T., Ibrahim, O. W., van Roozendael, M., Pinardi, G., Gleason, J. F., Veefkind, J. P., and Levelt, P.: Testing and improving OMI DOMINO tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> using observations from the DANDELIONS and INTEX-B validation campaigns, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D05301, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009jd012399">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd012399</a>, 2010. He, Y., Uno, I., Wang, Z., Ohara, T., Sugirnoto, N., Shimizu, A., Richter, A., and Burrows, J. P.: Variations of the increasing trend of tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> over central east China during the past decade, Atmos. Environ., 41, 4865–4876, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.02.009">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.02.009</a>, 2007. Herman, J. R. and Celarier, E. A.: Earth surface reflectivity climatology at 340–380 nm from TOMS data, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 28003–28011, 1997. Holtslag, A. and Boville, B.: Local versus nonlocal boundary-layer diffusion in a global climate model, J. Climate, 6, 1825–1842, 1993. Jaeglé, L., Steinberger, L., Martin, R. V., and Chance, K.: Global partitioning of NO<sub>x</sub> sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions, Faraday Discuss., 130, 407–423, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/b502128f">https://doi.org/10.1039/b502128f</a>, 2005. Koelemeijer, R. B. A., Stammes, P., Hovenier, J. W., and de Haan, J. F.: A fast method for retrieval of cloud parameters using oxygen A band measurements from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 3475–3490, 2001. Koelemeijer, R. B. A., de Haan, J. F., and Stammes, P.: A database of spectral surface reflectivity in the range 335–772 nm derived from 5.5 years of GOME observations, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4070, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002429">https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002429</a>, 2003. Lamsal, L. N., Martin, R. V., van Donkelaar, A., Celarier, E. A., Bucsela, E. J., Boersma, K. F., Dirksen, R., Luo, C., and Wang, Y.: Indirect validation of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide retrieved from the OMI satellite instrument: Insight into the seasonal variation of nitrogen oxides at northern midlatitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D05302, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013351">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013351</a>, 2010. Lei, Y., Zhang, Q., Nielsen, C. P., and He, K.: An inventory of primary air pollutants and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from cement production in China, 1990–2020, Atmos. Environ., 45, 147–154, 2010. Lin, J. T. and McElroy, M. B.: Impacts of boundary layer mixing on pollutant vertical profiles in the lower troposphere: Implications to satellite remote sensing, Atmos. Environ., 44, 1726–1739, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.02.009">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.02.009</a>, 2010. Lin, J., Nielsen, C., Zhao, Y., Lei, Y., Liu, Y., and McElroy, M. B.: Recent changes in particulate air pollution over China observed from space and the ground, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 7771–7776, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es101094t">https://doi.org/10.1021/es101094t</a>, 2010a. Lin, J. T., McElroy, M. B., and Boersma, K. F.: Constraint of anthropogenic NO<sub>x</sub> emissions in China from different sectors: a new methodology using multiple satellite retrievals, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 63–78, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-63-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-63-2010</a>, 2010b. Martin, R. V., Jacob, D. J., Chance, K., Kurosu, T. P., Palmer, P. I., and Evans, M. J.: Global inventory of nitrogen oxide emissions constrained by space-based observations of NO<sub>2</sub> columns, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4573, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003453">https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003453</a>, 2003. Martin, R. V., Sioris, C. E., Chance, K., Ryerson, T. B., Bertram, T. H., Wooldridge, P. J., Cohen, R. C., J. Andy Neuman, Swanson, A., and Flocke, F. M.: Evaluation of space-based constraints on global nitrogen oxide emissions with regional aircraft measurements over and downwind of eastern North America, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15308, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006680">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006680</a>, 2006. McElroy, M. B., Lu, X., Nielsen, C. P., and Wang, Y. X.: Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science, 325, 1378–1380, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1175706">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1175706</a>, 2009. Mijling, B., van der A, R. J., Boersma, K. F., Van Roozendael, M., De Smedt, I., and Kelder, H. M.: Reductions of NO<sub>2</sub> detected from space during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, D13801, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl038943">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl038943</a>, 2009. Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Nu\"{ }{ß}, H., Granier, C., and Niemeier, U.: Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space, Nature, 437, 129–132, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature04092">https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04092</a>, 2005. Seinfeld, J. H., and Pandis, S. N.: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change, Second ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, USA, 2006. Stavrakou, T., Muller, J. F., Boersma, K. F., De Smedt, I., and van der A, R. J.: Assessing the distribution and growth rates of NO<sub>x</sub> emission sources by inverting a 10-year record of NO<sub>2</sub> satellite columns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10801, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl033521">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl033521</a>, 2008. Streets, D. G., Bond, T. C., Carmichael, G. R., Fernandes, S. D., Fu, Q., He, D., Klimont, Z., Nelson, S. M., Tsai, N. Y., Wang, M. Q., Woo, J. H., and Yarber, K. F.: An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8809, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003093">https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003093</a>, 2003. van der A, R. J., Peters, D., Eskes, H., Boersma, K. F., Van Roozendael, M., De Smedt, I., and Kelder, H. M.: Detection of the trend and seasonal variation in tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> over China, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12317, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006594">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006594</a>, 2006. van der A, R. J., Eskes, H. J., Boersma, K. F., Noije, T. P. C. v., Roozendael, M. V., DeSmedt, I., Peters, D. H. M. U., and Meijer, E. W.: Trends, seasonal variability and dominant NO<sub>x</sub> source derived from a ten year record of NO<sub>2</sub> measured from space, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04302, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009021">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009021</a>, 2008. Wang, P., Stammes, P., van der A, R., Pinardi, G., and van Roozendael, M.: FRESCO+: an improved O<sub>2</sub> A-band cloud retrieval algorithm for tropospheric trace gas retrievals, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6565–6576, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6565-2008">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6565-2008</a>, 2008. Wang, Y., McElroy, M. B., Martin, R. V., Streets, D. G., Zhang, Q., and Fu, T.-M.: Seasonal variability of NO<sub>x</sub> emissions over east China constrained by satellite observations: Implications for combustion and microbial sources, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D06301, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007538">https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007538</a>, 2007. Yue, J., Lin, Y., Deng, Z., and Zhao, C.: Seasonal Variations of Tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> over Megalopolis in Eastern China Using Satellite Remote-Sensing Data and Chemistry-Transport Model (in Chinese), Proceedings of Peking University, 45, 2009. Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., He, K., Wang, Y., Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Uno, I., Jang, C. J., Chen, D., Yao, Z., and Lei, Y.: NO<sub>x</sub> emission trends for China, 1995–2004: The view from the ground and the view from space, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22306, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008684">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008684</a>, 2007. Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., He, K. B., Huo, H., Kannari, A., Klimont, Z., Park, I. S., Reddy, S., Fu, J. S., Chen, D., Duan, L., Lei, Y., Wang, L. T., and Yao, Z. L.: Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5131–5153, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009</a>, 2009a. Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., and He, K. B.: Satellite observations of recent power plant construction in Inner Mongolia, China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15809, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl038984">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl038984</a>, 2009b. Zhao, Y., Duan, L., Xing, J., Larssen, T., Nielsen, C. P., and Hao, J. M.: Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO2 Emissions Enough?, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 8021–8026, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es901430n">https://doi.org/10.1021/es901430n</a>, 2009. Zhao, Y., Wang, S., Nielsen, C. P., Li, X., and Hao, J.: Establishment of a database of emission factors for atmospheric pollutants from Chinese coal-fired power plants, Atmos. Environ., 44, 1515–1523, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.01.017">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.01.017</a>, 2010. Zhou, Y., Brunner, D., Boersma, K. F., Dirksen, R., and Wang, P.: An improved tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> retrieval for OMI observations in the vicinity of mountainous terrain, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 2, 401–416, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-2-401-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2-401-2009</a>, 2009.